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Sunday Low Scoring Games Week 2

By John Bush

Sunday Low Scoring Games

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I wished to give my take on the Sunday Day Low Scoring Games**

**Sunday Night and Monday Games Sold Separately 🙂


See my Weekly Rankings Articles:

snaps-per-minute-week-1-2018

targets-per-minute-week-1-2018

nonppr-ranks-risk-rewards-week-2

ppr-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-2

rb-attempts-and-touches-week-1


Sunday Low Games Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Sunday Low Scoring Games slide110.jpg

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SSunday Low Scoring Games unday Low Scoring Games Slide2

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Short Discussion of Risk

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team and player following the game scripts and DAP data.

Sunday Low Scoring Games Slide23

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Low ScoringGames predicted to have game totals of 44/3 or under

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HOU vs TEN

Sunday Low Scoring Games BA TEN HOU


HOU

Watson gets to fight into a nice easy defense for TEN ranked 33. He gets a 36 QB DAP. I expect 3x scores and I rank him at a mid risk 92. Hou is favored to win in here.

The HOU WRs get a nice 43 WR DAP. I expect them to get 2X scores at least. Hopkins is low-risk 98 and Fuller a low risk 64. Ellington is a high risk 51.5. Hopkins is a DFS tournament play in DFS. Give Fuller a week to see where he is at. 

The TEs have an opportunity to score vs 30 TE DAP. Griffin is mid-risk 63 and Akins at a mid-risk 52! I lean toward Griffin as the one who can score. DFS fade. 

The RB Miller is a mid-risk 85 vs 43 RB DAP. He can score and collect PPR points. Blue might grab a red zone score as well as a low-risk 18 ranked RB. Miller is a DFS tournament play only. 

Hou Kicker is a solid play Defense is ok. 

Sunday Low Scoring Games Slide39


TEN

The issue for TEN is does Mariota play? Gabbert would be a major drag on the team! I thus have Mariota at high risk 19 due to his injury. He faces an easy 33 QB DAP but he may not play or share with Gabbert. 

The TEN WRs get Davis back vs a 50 WR DAP. I rank him a low risk 86. Matthews can be in the mix but a high risk 49 ranked WR. DFS fades all. They could score or not. 

Smith replaces IR Walker the TE lands in a tough situation even vs an easy 24 TE DAP. I rank him at low-risk 77! He could be Gabbert’s check down guy! DFS fade.

The RBs have been weak but get a chance to score vs a 79 RB DAP. I have Lewis as the top RB choice in PPR over Henry. Lewis is still a mid risk 79 and Henry a high-risk 58. Lewis a DFS tournament play.

Kicker and Defense for TEN are good plays. 

Sunday Low Scoring Games Slide57

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PHI vs TB

Sunday Low Scoring Games BA TB PHI


PHI

Foles gets a chance to improve vs a weak TB defense ranked at 41. He should collect 3X scores. I rank him low-risk 30 however so a DFS gamble only. 

The PHI WRs will collect 2x scores vs a 0 TB WR DAP! Agholor is a great PPR play ranked a low -risk 86. DFS tournament play. Wallace also can collect on a long play (boom or bust) high-risk 58! DFS fade. 

Ertz is a low risk 97 vs a tough 66 TE DAP. He can score but is a DFS tournament play only. I expect PPR points and a score.

Sproles is out. Ajayi is a low risk 76 and Clement is a high risk but I would move up to 50 rankings. They fight into a 56 RB DAP. Hard to figure who scores. I lean Clement as a PPR guy. DFS Fade. 

Kicker and Defense are ok plays. 

Slide52


TB

Fitz Magic needs all his tricks vs a tough PHI ranked at 62 and a tough 58 QB DAP. He scores 2X or 3. The TB team is going to come back to earth vs PHI. I rank Fitz at low-risk 26. 

He does a nice collection of WRs and they will collect those passes and scores vs a 16 WR DAP. They will be responsible for a TB upset. Evans is a must play low-risk 91 and scores 2X. Evans is a DFS play in all formats. Jackson is a mid-risk 66 and Godwin high-risk 68. Hard to figure which one collects a score.

The 2 TEs do confound each other in scoring. Howard is a low-risk 77 and Brate is a mid-risk 60! The TE face a tough 62 TE DAP. DFS Fades

Barber is ranked a high-risk 62 RB vs a tough 95 RB DAP. Not expecting a score but some PPR points though. DFS tournament play. 

The Kicker and Defense are fades in DFS. 

Slide56

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NYJ vs MIA

BA NYJ MIA


NYJ

The surprising NYJ are favored over MIA. The NYJ get a nice 35 ranked MIA defense to fight. Darnold is high-risk ranked 12. He can score 2X but he is still a risky rookie vs a 25 QB DAP. 

The NYJ WRs contend into a tough 80 WR DAP. Anderson can score but is a mid-risk 80 and Enunwa is a lower risk 73. Given the tougher DAP, I lean toward Enunwa as a PPR guy. DFS play in all formats. Anderson is riskier and a tournament plays in DFS only. 

I expect the TEs to be hidden in this game vs 1.5 TE DAP. Sterling is a possibility at high-risk 57. 

The RBBC vs a 19 RB DAP will put the NYJ over the top. They score 2X but which one? Powell at 67 mid-risk and Crow at high-risk 62. Tournament plays only. UPickem! 

Kicker ok defense is a good play. 

Slide50


MIA

Tannehill has a below average defense to deal with so the total game points from Vegas may be low! He gets a 14 QB DAP to contest against! Expect 3X. MIA can surprise in here! 

The MIA WRs are getting Parker back. They fight into a 41 WR DAP and that means scores. I have Stills as the lead WR, a low-risk 84. Amendola at mid-risk 64, Wilson at mid risk 50 and Parker a mystery high risk 39. The issue is after Stills who gets the targets and a score? Fade all except Stills who is playable in DFS tournaments. 

The TEs are led by Gesicki at a high risk 63 vs a 46 TE DAP. Hard to figure him. Seems at best to be a PPR TE check down guy. He could surprise. DFS fade though. 

Drake and Gore will lead the MIA team in the rushing and pass-catching roles vs an average 52 RB DAP. I rank Drake a mid-risk 79 and gore low-risk 42. I see a large range of possibilities. I like Gore as a surprise red-zone scoring RB for STD this week. Drake is going to be your PPR guy. 

Fade the Kicker but use the Defense. 

Slide45

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LAC vs BUF

BA LAC BUF


LAC

The LAC team is favored in here and face an average BUF defense of 50 ranking. Rivers faces a 90 QB DAP. Tough day for passing. Expect 2X. I have Rivers at low risk 75   but would only use in tournaments. 

River’s WRs contest a tough 70 WR DAP. That means Allen gets the score(s). I have him at 97 low-risk. I ranked M Williams at low risk 69, T Williams at 59 and Benjamin at 42.6. All are low-risk. Hard to figure who scores outside of Allen. I suspect M. Williams is the PPR guy and can be played in those formats. Allen in all DFS formats. The others fade in DFS. 

Do G and G incorporated collect for the TEs? They fight a low 36 TE DAP and can be a red-zone savior. I lean toward Gates to score at mid-risk 67 but Green can surprise at low risk 36. DFS fades. 

The main attack into the BUF defense will be from Gordon at a low risk 97. I expect a points feast against a nice 42 RB DAP. 20 PPR points are real. DFS all formats. Ekeler also in PPR leagues is viable ranked at high risk 57. He is a gamble in DFS tournaments. 

Kicker and defense are good plays. 

Slide43


BUF

BUF will have a long day vs a tough LAC defense of 72 rankings. The good news is the Peterman experiment is over and Allen take over. He is ranked low risk and 0 vs an extreme 101 QB DAP. He figures to be running for his life all day. 

The BUF WRs will be low producers expect for a lucky shot. 1X score? Benjamin at low risk 66, Jones a high risk 44, the other mid to high-risk! They fight a 59 WR DAP. Thus if Allen can shake the LAC pass rush there is hope for scoring. 

Clay the TE was asleep and needs to wake up. Many have dropped him. He is mid-risk 69 ranking. He can collect in PPR check-downs and can only move forward from week 1. The issue is the LAC 83 TE DAP. 

McCoy needs to jump up and take this game over. That seems unlikely. I have him a high-risk 79 vs an easy 36 RB DAP. If Allen can keep the LAC defense honest then McCoy can collect yards and scores. If you play McCoy you are betting on Allen. An extreme high reward highest risk RB of the week in DFS tournaments. 

Fade the Kicker and Defense. 

Slide30

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ATL vs CAR

BA CAR ATL


ATL

The Falcons are favored at home vs a tougher than average CAR defense ranked 64! Ryan faces a tough 63 and I have him a high-risk 54! I expect 2X scores. Vegas also is concerned as they predicted a low scoring game FYI. That seems interesting given ATL Jones and Coleman!

The WRs from ATL contest an easy 30 WR DAP. Jones will collect his 2X scores and PPR points. I ranked him at low-risk 98! Sanu might wake up and collect a surprise score and catches at high-risk 65! Jones is a DFS play. Sanu is a DFS fade.

Hooper almost had a score last week. He is ranked mid-risk 70 vs tough 79 TE DAP!  DFS fade. Maybe check-downs into a score? 

Coleman steps up as the RB1 as Freeman is out. That makes him a mid-risk 80 ranking. I expect 1 score on the ground or air. He is the reason ATL wins! He fights a tough 108! He must at least keep the BUF defense off Jones so much! 

Kicker and Defense just ok plays.

Slide28


CAR

Newton gets a shot vs ATL. These divisional games in the south are many times close. He fast a slight harder DEF from ATL ranked at 55. He contests a 41 QB DAP. I expect scores in passing and Cam runs one or two in. I rank him a high risk 91. He can be boom or bust. DFS tournament only. 

His WRs need to keep the ATL defense honest. They fight into a 57 WR DAP. Funchess should be the PPR guy with a score. I rank him at mid-risk 77. DFS tournaments only. The others are high risk and ranked below 45! Funchess must be a factor for CAR to win! 

The next TE is Thomas. He is a mid-risk TE ranked at 69! He can help Cam keep this team going. He fights into a 56 TE DAP. A gamble in DFS tournaments just because he would be a great separator for your DFS team.  

Finally, the RBs figure nicely in this game vs a 57 RB DAP. McCaffrey is a nice 91 low-risk PPR guy. DFS play in all formats.  Anderson is a low-risk low ranked 28. He has not found his play yet. I assume a red-zone guy short yardage player. CAM and McCaffrey should keep CAR closer than thought for an upset win. 

Kicker ok and Defense DFS Fade. 

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