Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Week 2

By John Bush

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games

I wished to give my take on the Sunday Day Above Average Games**

**Sunday Night and Monday Games Sold Separately 🙂


See my Weekly Rankings Articles:

snaps-per-minute-week-1-2018

targets-per-minute-week-1-2018

nonppr-ranks-risk-rewards-week-2

ppr-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-2

rb-attempts-and-touches-week-1


Sunday Above Average Games Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games slide110.jpg

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Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide2

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Short Discussion of Risk

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team and player following the game scripts and DAP data.

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide23

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Above Average – Games predicted to have game totals of 44/5 to 48 points

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IND vs WAS

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games AH WAS IND


WAS

Smith the QB gets an easy time vs IND Defense ranked 31 and their 31 QB DAP.  Smith gets 3 to 4X scores. Points feast here. I have him mid risk 90! 

The WAS WRs face an easy 38 WR DAP. Crowder should collect PPR points at low risk 80. The other two Richardson and Doctson WRs can score but hard to figure the dominant one. They are high and mid-risk ranked at 59 and 51 respectively.  The WRs collect 2X scores. DFS tournament plays only.  Richardson may not play (late injury) and if that occurs up Crowder and Doctson to score more! 

Reed the TE collects a score and PPR points.  High rank 97 and low risk vs a 34 WR DAP. A cash game in DFS play. 

The RBs get an easy 22 RB DAP! Peterson and Thompson will get their touches and are both mid risk ranked at 76 rankings. I see them as an RBBC and DFS tournament plays. I lean to Thompson in PPR and Peterson in STD! 

The Kicker and Defense get a good game! 

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide58


IND

Luck faces a slightly easy DEF from WAS ranked at 45. Luck is ranked a high risk 50 ranking vs a tough 66 QB DAP.  Luck may be limited to 2X scores. DFS fade.

The IND WRs fight into 94 WR DAP are going to have a rough Sunday. Hilton mid risk 88 will collect his points but the others will have lean games Grant Mid Risk 59 and Rodgers at high risk 40! DFS fades

The TEs TEBC will favor a score or two. Doyle and Ebron are low risk 90 to 82 ranked vs 35 TE DAP. I might pick one to use in DFS tournaments. 

The RBBC is confusing as Mack may be back. I have them all lower ranked below 50 vs 22 RB DAP. They can collect scores and PPR points but unclear the player to collect. I ranked Wilkins at 49 high-risk and Mack at a low-risk 43. Fade in DFS.

Kicker good and IND defense actually have a shot to collect points. 

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide40

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OAK vs DEN

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games AH OAK DEN


OAK

Carr is ranked high-risk 21 vs a tough DEN 68 QB DAP. Carr will be limited in scoring. DFS fade.

His WRs face into 91 WR DAP! Tough game for all. Cooper is going to be moved around to give him a shot at scoring Sunday. Ranked at 80 mid risk! DFS tournament gamble. Nelson gets some PPR points and is mid-risk 71. No one else seems significant. 

Cook the TE was the fulcrum for week 1! He plays into a DEN DEF weakness of 34 TE DAP. I expect a score and PPR points. Cook is a must add if you can for the season. I rank him a nice low risk 88! 

The RRBC contends into 91 RB DAPs! Lynch was injured last week but figures to play. I have him through at high risk 59. The pass-catcher Richard is high risk as well at 35! DFS fade. I would lean if needed Richards in PPR and Lynch in STD. 

Kicker and Oak defense can do ok Sunday. 

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide51

DEN

Keenum gets an at home treat going into the OAK easy defense ranked at 37 and a 17 QB DAP. Keenum collects 3X scores or more. Points feast. DFS play in all formats. I have him through a mid risk 50 but that may be too conservative. 

The WRs from DEN fight into a 35 WR DAP! Multiple scores in here. Sanders and Thomas are going to be thunder and lightning at low risk 89 ranked. 1 to 2 scores plus PPR points festival. Play Sanders in cash and Thomas in tournaments.

The DEN TEs are an ok crew but mid and high risk at 43 and 57 only. They go into a 44 WR DAP. Maybe a score. DFS fade. 

The RBBC tandem is still forming into a force. They will get a tougher time vs 61 RB DAP! I lean to Royce ranked 70 and low risk vs Lindsay at low risk 57 ranking. I expect a score and PPR points. Hard to figure who is the winner this week. DFS tournaments only. 

Kicker gets a good game and DEN defense does ok only. 

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide36

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NE vs JAX

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games AH NE JAX


NE

Brady get his toughest test in a while vs a strong JAX defense ranked at 80! Brady vs a 118 QB DAP. That has to limit Brady somewhat. He will score but limited. He is 63 mid risk because of this game script! 

The NE WRs will be crush vs a 103 WR DAP. Maybe a score slips into here but Hogan will be at best a score and some PPR points at mid risk 79. It hard to see Dorsett doing good at a mid risk 55 ranked.  DFS fade

Gronk vs a 64 TE DAP. He can score 1 to 2 scores. I rank him low-risk 100! Play in DFS tournaments only. 

The NE RBs contend into an easy 35 RB DAP! Burkhead is questionable. He is a high risk 76. White scores for sure at low risk 70 DFS cash play! Michel only if Burkhead is not playing. He is low risk 9 and DFS fade. 

Tough game for Kicker and NE Defense. DFS fades. 

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide48


JAX

Bortles gets a nice setup for multiple scores. He faces a 0 QB DAP from NE. We see the best of Bortles Sunday. DFS tournaments. 

The WRS were uneven week 1 and face off into easy WR DAP! They get scores here. I have Cole low-risk 69, Westbrooke low risk 59 and Moncrief high risk 51. Cole can score and get PPR scores. Westbrook is a gamble but he could collect as well. Moncrief as well can score. I am unclear on this WRBC! 

ASJ the TE can also continue his surprising performance. I have him 79 mid -risk. Expect a score and PPR points. He vs the NE 47 TE DAP! 

Does Fournette play? Risky play vs a 42 NE RB DAP! I upped his risk level to mid risk. He collects a score and points. Yeldon can also collect points but high risk 62 unless Lenny does not play! Move him to mid-risk near 75 ranking. 

Tough for Kicker and JAX defense. 

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide41

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GB vs MIN

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games AH MIN GB


MIN

Cousins gets treat given the GB defense is ranked 34 and they yield a 19 QB DAP. 3X Scores expected and points feast. I ranked him low-risk 70 and a DFS tournament play! 

The WRBC tandem of Diggs and Thielen are low risk 93 ranked. Scores for each and PPR points. Lean to Diggs for DFS cash vs Thielen in tournament DFS. They get a nice19 WR DAP for extra points feasting! 

Rudolph goes against a tough 68 TE DAP and even though I expect a score and PPR points. I ranked him at low risk 88! 

Cook the RB should also bring home the scores and PPR points. I ranked him low risk 87. DFS play in all formats. He gets a 31 RB DAP! Extra treats for him! Murray at mid -risk 45 can get a red zone score. 

Kicker has a great game. Defense is just ok! 

Slide46


GB

Does Rogers play? The range of outcomes is high. I would fade all if Kizer is the QB!  Rodgers is mid risk 73 because of a Min 87 ranking and injury issues.  If Rodgers plays he gets 3X scores and is playable in tournaments. Kinda of anti-play! 

The GB WRs are a strong 3 way Crew! They contend into 76 WR DAP. Expect 2 scores. Adams is he plays is a low risk 94, Cobb 81 mid risk and Allison mid risk 61! I lean to Adams as the main target but tough matchup. Adams DFS tournament plays and I will fade the others. 

Does Graham the TE join us in the end zone? I have him 91 low-risk vs a 68 TE DAP. I expect a score but would not be surprised if he does not score! DFS gamble only! 

Fade the Kicker and Defense in DFS. 

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games Slide38

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LAR vs ARI

Sunday Above Average Scoring Games aH LAR ARI


LAR

Goff fights an ARI 49 ranked Defense and a 26 QB DAP. Nice chance for 3X scores. I have Goff a high risk 62. I suggest a tournament only in DFS. 

The LAR WRs face off vs a 39 WR DAP. I see all three WRs are viable but hard to guess which one dominates. Cooks is ranked low-risk 85, Kupp 82 mid-risk and Woods low-risk 79! I lean to Kupp in PPR for scoring points and DFS cash games. The others are gambles in DFS tournaments 

The LAR TEs have been quiet and I expect more of the same vs 67 TE DAP. Fade DFS.

Gurley should collect for your team and all format DFS games. I have him low risk 98! He does face a tougher than average 65 RB DAP! I expect 2X scores and a fist full of PPR points! 

Kicker tough Sunday vs LAR Defense has a good game! 

Slide44


ARI

ARI had a tough week 1. As I found in some metrics in my other reports they could bounce back somewhat. Bradford vs a 57 Defense and against a 72 QB DAP. I see Bradford low risk ranked 3! Not much but maybe a gamble in DFS only. 

Fitz gets to fight 47 WR DAP. I expect a surprising 2X scores. Play in DFS tournaments. I have him a mid-risk 91! Fade the others. 

Seal-Jones has talent and is ranked mid risk 76 vs a 57 TE DAP. He can score for you. DFS tournament only. 

David Johnson should score 2X and surprises the LAR defense. He is the game fulcrum and is low risk 96 vs an easy 14 RB DAP! Solid DFS play all formats.

Fade K and Def in DFS.

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