Week 11 NFL Picks and Player Props

While Aaron and I did not go 6-0, we did get back on the right side of winning with each of us going 2-1 on the week. In fact, Aaron nailed the New England side, unfortunately their offense was too strong and hit the over themselves, killing the same game parlay.

This week we are back with 6 more NFL picks and player props for Week 11. We have 4 against the spread picks plus a 2 team teaser and a player prop. So who do we like? Check out our thoughts below. Follow or fade at your own discretion.

Week: 2-1

Season: 18-10-1

Aaron

Week: 2-1

Season: 20-10

Aaron’s Week 11 Picks

Another winning week on the season – that’s 9/10 now in the green! I hit my 2 main picks for the week and barely missed my single game parlay due to the offensive explosion of the Patriots, scoring 45 points on the degrading Browns defense.

The Chiefs smashed the Raiders and could still be undervalued in the weeks to come as the public comes back from consistently being burned by them early in the season.

I also took a little risk by taking the Panthers on Thursday when they were +10.5, but that paid off tremendously when Kyler Murray decided to miss his second straight game. Carolina was invigorated by the return of Cam Newton, putting up 34 points on one of the league’s premier defenses. Carolina looks to be another team in which you can find value in for the next few weeks.

This week… I’m playing some huge road dogs to capitalize on a couple different leverage plays.

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Houston Texans +10 @ Tennessee Titans 

The Titans have won 6 in a row and look unstoppable right now. That’s the perfect time to bet against a team. I won’t go as far as to actually predict an upset here, but I think it’s possible and worth throwing a couple bucks on alongside the spread pick. The Titans are also 7-3 ATS this year so I can see some regression coming from oddsmakers.

Divisional games are always tougher than non, as teams know much more about their opponents than teams they play once every couple of years. The Titans are banged up missing Julio Jones and Jeremy McNichols in this game and are truly due for a dud game. Going up against an inferior team at home seems to be the recipe for a team to slack off and barely sneak out a win… if not lose this game outright.

Pick: Texans +10

New York Giants +11.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’ll come out and say this now: this is a risky pick. I don’t love the narrative of betting against Tom Brady after 2 straight losses, but this is just a lot of points for a not-too-shabby-despite-injury-riddled NY Giants team. I’m banking on the return of Saquon Barkley here, which appears imminent, but the Giants have only lost 2 games by more than 10 points since week 1 (LA Rams & Dallas Cowboys). 

Pick: Giants +11.5

6-point Teaser: Cleveland Browns -5.5 and Dallas Cowboys +8.5 (-120)

I’m going to continue my streak of weird pick #3’s here with a teaser that is a guaranteed smash in my book. I’m on both CLE -10.5 and DAL +3 (bought the .5 point) so adding 6 to both for insurance locks this in. The odds are -120, so you’re not going to take home a huge payday by hitting this line, but I’m throwing 3 units on this… so it is a big play for me.

The 0-8 Lions will be trotting out Tim Boyle this week instead of Jared Goff. Goff has been downright atrocious this year, and while I believe a lot of it is him not being good, a lot of it is also how bad this offense is overall. If you’ve never heard of Tim Boyle (like me), it’s likely because he is 27 years old and has only thrown 4 passes in the NFL. Now, he does have a 75% completion percentage which is far better than Jared Goff, but this could be a Kendall Hinton circa 2020 performance of the season.

The Browns just lost 45-7 to the Patriots last week, are getting Nick Chubb back, and will be gunning for the Lions throats. I’m going to look at alternate lines up to -20.5 for the Browns to see if I can make a little extra off of this ugly game.

Pick: Browns and Cowboys 6 Point Tease

Kyle’s Week 11 Picks

Myles Gaskin OVER 73.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

While 2021 hasn’t been the year many expected from Myles Gaskin, this is the week to back him in a big. Miami enters their contest against the Jets as a 3 or 3.5 point favorite depending on where you look. 

Thus far, the Jets rush defense has been atrocious allowing the 3rd most yards both rushing and receiving to opposing running backs. We saw the onslaught the Bills put on this same defense a week ago. This on the heels of the Colts gaining 250 yards on the ground alone.

With Joe Flacco starting in this one, Miami should have plenty of opportunities to run the rock. While I like the rushing and receiving props by themselves, the combo prop seemed shortest and provides a bit of wiggle room for Gaskin.

Pick: Myles Gaskin OVER 73.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

I was really hoping to get a full 3 with the New Orleans this week and with Alvin Kamara being ruled out, a few books have moved their lines for me. This is a great spot even going back on the road for a second straight week.

Philadelphia looked fantastic a week ago against Denver, a game which I bet, but this line reflects that performance too much. The Eagles want to run the ball especially if they are able to get Miles Sanders back this week. The run game takes pressure off Jalen Hurts who can make throws when set up to succeed. However New Orleans has been allowing the fewest rushing yards thus far this season. This stifled production has come against some strong rushers like Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffery, and Leonard Fournette.

Even without Alvin Kamara, New Orleans should be able to move the ball offensively. They showed the ability to strike against Tennessee a week ago and had it not been for a very questionable roughing the passer call a week ago they might have won outright.

 These are two of my favorite targets as underdogs and fades as favorites.I will stick to my principals and back the road team here.

Pick: Saints +3

Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 vs San Francisco 49ers

This line has stood out like a sore thumb to me all week. San Francisco looked like the version that many expected to see coming into the season on Monday Night Football dismantling the Rams. Now they head to the east coast for an early kick on a short week. While travel has certainly improved and the west coast team traveling east is not as impactful as it used to be, it can still be enough of a factor this week.

San Francisco, who will likely be without Elijah Mitchell this week, will still want to establish the run. While Jeff Wilson Jr is more than capable of having a huge day, the thing Jacksonville does best is defend the run. Only Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry were able to produce big numbers and Henry’s outing came way back in Week 5.

The concern here is Kyle Shanahan actually lets QB Jimmy Garoppolo throw this week. The Jaguars are atrocious against opposing passers. With Trent Williams back to his all-pro level along with George Kittle’s outstanding blocking the passing game has found some rhythm. It also doesn’t hurt having Deebo Samuel playing the way he is.

Could this game get sideways? Sure, but I’m banking on San Francisco staying conservative, running the ball and getting out of Florida with a win.

Pick: Jaguars +6.5

Good luck in Week 11!

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