Weekly Values Before Week 12

Weekly Values Before Week 12. As we get ready for playoff season in Fantasy Football, it’s time to take a look at the weekly value in a much different way. Every statistical tool in this world that attempts to predict the future will have its strengths and limitations.

For example, consistency Ratings can be thought of as a prediction of a player’s floor, while Best 10 estimates a player’s ceiling. But what we need is one number that can tell us more about what we can expect from a player in any given week, and that is why “Efficiency Average” (EA) was born. In baseball, “On Base Percentage” and “Slugging Average” are two great statistics to diagnose a player’s value. Combine those two excellent stats, and OPS was born, which is an even better way to look at the upside of how valuable a player is to his team. As I continue to Beta Test EA, I expect similar results. So let’s take a look at the weekly value of players heading into week 12.

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QB Weekly Values

There was no change to the top 5 at QB this week with Patrick Mahomes on top with a value of 42.7, but it’s less than an entire point to Josh Allen in second place. Despite a shaky 2021 season, Mahomes remains the only QB with a Consistency Rating over 70%. Justin Herbert made the most significant move with an increase to 39.3, passing Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray for 5th best. Cam Newton also made a big move this week up to 14th place. The 2021 Rookie Class continues to show how particular Justin Herbert’s rookie year was last season. The top rookie is Mac Jones at 26.9 for QB27, 8 points in weekly value behind the 12th rated QB. Trevor Lawrence is 29th best at 26.4. Let’s take a look at the data.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
Mahomes	42.7	72	1	KC
J Allen	42.3	54	2	Buf
L Jackson	41.4	64	3	Bal
Brady	40.4	55	4	TB
Wilson	40	51	5	Sea
Herbert	39.3	60	8	LAC
Prescott	39.2	63	6	Dal
Murray	39.1	58	7	AZ
Rodgers	38.1	64	9	GB
Stafford	35.1	49	11	LAR
Cousins	34.9	55	12	Min
Ryan	34.9	43	10	Atl
Tannehill	33.1	46	13	Ten
Newton	33	38	24	Car
Hurts	32.4	47	14	Phl
Heinecke	31.3	44	19	WAS
D Jones	31	23	15	NYG
Carr	30.5	45	16	LV
Goff	30.4	30	17	Det
Wentz	30	39	18	Ind
Tua	30	29	22	Mia
Burrow	29.9	55	21	Cin
Jimmy G	29.1	29	20	SF
Mayfield	28.9	22	23	Cle
Bridgewater	28.2	37	25	Den
Big Ben	27.3	36	27	Pitt
M Jones	26.9	18	28	NE
Siemien	26.7	67	32	NO
Lawrence	26.4	20	26	Jax
Taylor	26	28	29	Hou
Z Wilson	25	0	30	NYJ
Fields	23	13	31	Chi

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Weekly Values Before Week 12 RB Weekly Values

Injuries are taking a toll on the RB position as usual, and I left some of the hurt RBs on the list this week just for reference. CMC solidified his rank at 2nd place as his volume has increased closer to normal, and with better QB play, he should continue to hold his spot in the Top 3 even if his volume is a little lower than his historic normal.

The “Time Share” issue at RB on several teams shows up in the Consistency Ratings. Aaron Jones is 4th best at Best ten weekly value, but his Consistency Rating under 80% shows what having a second excellent RB like AJ Dillon on the team can hurt your weekly value. Jonathan Taylor’s increased volume has increased his Best 10 to 6th best at 27.6. If that trend continues through the rest of the season, his Weekly Value should increase to greater than 30, putting him as high as Top 3 in weekly value heading into the Fantasy Football playoffs. Finally, Joe Mixon cracked the Top 10 this week. Let’s take a look at the rest of the data.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
Henry	34.3	80	1	Ten
CMC	32.9	92	2	Car
Kamara	31.2	89	3	NO
A Jones	30	77	4	GB
Ekeler	28.6	89	5	LAC
Taylor	27.6	80	7	Ind
Cook	27.1	92	6	Min
Chubb	25.1	80	8	Cle
Mixon	24.4	72	13	Cin
Elliott	24.3	83	10	Dal
Swift	24.1	82	11	Det
Barkley	23.9	68	9	NYG
Harris	23.8	90	12	Pit
J Robinson	23	91	14	Jax
Patterson	22.4	57	16	Atl
Montgomery	22.1	60	15	Chi
Fornette	22	78	18	TB
Conner	21.6	77	20	Az
Drake	21.5	61	19	LV
Jacobs	21.4	78	17	LV
AJ Dillon	20.8	75	22	GB
M Gordon	20.7	65	21	Den
K Hunt	20.2	67	23	Cle
M Carter	20	67	24	NYJ
Sanders	19.4	57	26	Phl
D Henderson	19.4	50	27	LAR
Mattison	19.3	64	28	Min
Gibson	19.1	64	25	Was
Gaskin	18.5	73	29	Mia
Booker	18.3	64	30	NYG
CEH	18.1	74	35	KC
Freeman	18.1	61	NA	Bal
D Williams	18.1	48	31	KC
Stevenson	18	60	32	NE
Perine	17.8	80	34	Cin
Herbert	17.7	50	36	Chi
J Williams	17.6	50	37	Det
McKissic	17.6	47	33	Was
D Williams	17.4	58	38	Chi
J Williams	17.2	40	39	Den
E Mitchell	17	57	41	SF
Hines	16.5	52	43	Ind
D Johnson	16.4	68	56	Hou
Edmunds	16.4	63	45	Az
M Davis	16.4	52	46	Atl
Pollard	16.2	40	42	Dal
L Murray	15.8	42	47	Bal
D Harris	15.6	58	40	NE
Singletary	15.5	50	48	Buf
Scott	15.4	37	44	Phl
Gainwell	15.3	60	49	Phl
Michel	15.1	60	50	LAR
Hubbard	15	67	51	Car
Howard	15	43	52	Phl
Moss	14.8	59	53	Buf
T Johnson	14.3	29	55	NYJ
R Jones	13.6	67	57	TB
Breida	13.3	60	NA	Buf
Collins	13.3	33	58	Sea
Hilliard	12.3	50	NA	Ten
T Williams	11.3	67	59	Bal
McNichols	11.3	22	60	Ten

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WR Weekly Values

Justin Jefferson has started to return to his 2020 Fantasy level, which shows up in this week’s Weekly Values, with Jefferson up ten places to the Top Ten. Values for Best 10 are computed using data from the 2019-21 seasons but are heavily weighted for the current season to show weekly values more stylish way.

One player on high on this list is one of the reasons Efficiency Average was born. Tyler Lockett is one of those “High Risk/ High Reward” players that can hurt your team in specific formats. His Best ten is holding solid in the Top 5, but his Consistency Rating of 57% is only 41st best at WR! Lockett is the kind of guy I want in Best Ball format but not in 1 Flex leagues where I prefer a little more stability to my floors values. Let’s take a look at the rest of the data.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
Adams	32.7	88	1	GB
Hill	30.8	89	2	KC
Kupp	30.7	81	3	LAR
Evans	29	74	5	TB
Lockett	28.7	57	4	Sea
Godwin	26.7	78	6	TB
Thielan	26.2	64	8	Min
Diggs	26.1	81	7	Buf
J Chase	25.8	90	9	Cin
Jefferson	25.7	76	21	Min
Cooper	25.4	70	11	Dal
Hopkins	25.3	82	12	AZ
AJ Brown	25	63	15	Ten
Samuel	24.8	72	10	SF
McLaurin	24.7	69	13	Was
An Brown	24.5	83	14	TB
K Allen	24	85	16	LAC
M Williams	23.7	49	17	LAC
Ridley	23.5	84	22	Atl
M Jones	23.1	54	20	Jax
Metcalf	23	74	23	Sea
Lamb	23	68	18	Dal
M Brown	22.7	54	24	Bal
D Johnson	21.8	71	32	Pit
J Jones	21.4	74	27	Ten
DJ Moore	21.4	70	25	Car
Crowder	21.4	54	35	NYJ
Fuller	21.3	62	28	Mia
B Cooks	21.2	57	26	Hou
E Moore	21.1	74	45	NYJ
D Smith	21.1	64	30	Phl
Boyd	21.1	63	29	Cin
Shephard	20.9	74	31	NYG
Sutton	20.8	56	33	Den
Sanders	20.6	58	34	Buf
Beasley	20.5	66	36	Buf
Robinson	20.4	71	37	Chi
Waddle	20.2	64	38	Mia
Landry	19.8	65	42	Cle
Aiyuk	19.6	57	47	SF
C Davis	19.6	43	39	NYJ
Parker	19.5	77	40	Mia
Golladay	19.4	73	41	NYG
Pittman	19.3	42	43	Ind
Kirk	19	58	44	AZ
R Moore	18.7	44	48	AZ
Claypool	18.5	61	46	Pit
Slayton	17.8	46	49	NYG
Agholor	17.8	36	52	NE
Toney	17.7	43	53	NYG
Renfrow	17.2	53	51	LV
Higgins	17.1	73	50	Cin
Mooney	17	44	55	Chi
Peoples-Jones	17	43	54	Cle
Cobb	16.7	37	56	GB
Hilton	16.6	48	57	Ind
Beckham	16.5	61	58	Lar
Anderson	16.5	51	59	Car
Jeudy	16.3	58	61	Den
Green	16.3	57	60	AZ
Pascal	16.1	31	63	Ind
Gage	15.8	52	62	Atl
Carter	15.3	50	NA	Was
Callaway	15	36	65	NO
Patrick	14.9	48	66	Den
Meyers	14.8	45	67	NE
Harris	14.3	86	68	NO
Jefferson	14.2	31	70	LAR
Hardman	14	52	71	KC
Swain	14	38	72	Sea
G Davis	13.9	50	69	Buf
Lazard	13.7	30	75	GB
Raymond	13.7	29	64	Det
Shenaut	13.3	48	73	Jax
T Marshall	13.3	0	77	Car
Edwards	13.2	39	74	LV
ASB	12	38	79	Det
Watkins	11.9	38	78	Bal
Higgins	11.9	33	80	Cle
T Smith	11.7	32	81	NO
Robinson	11	27	82	KC
Reagor	10.6	21	83	Phl

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Weekly Values Before Week 12 TE Weekly Values

Every pre-season, we see many projections on who will be the next Elite TE in Fantasy Football, but after 11 weeks of the 2021 season, the answer to the question “How Many Elite TEs exist in Fantasy Football” is “Just Two.” Travis Kelce and Darren Waller have a definite advantage over the third-best TE this season, easily Mark Andrews.

Andrews was forecast to be the highest-rated TE above his ADP before the season, and he has not disappointed. This issue will come as no surprise, but even among the Top TEs, this position is not very consistent from week to week, except Travis Kelce, who is the only sure thing week in and week out with an 88% Consistency Rating. Only three players at this position are over 70% in Consistency! Let’s take a look at the rest of the data.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
Waller	24.3	71	1	LV
Kelce	23.6	88	2	KC
Andrews	21.1	65	3	Bal
Kittle	20.1	72	4	SF
Gesecki	19.3	40	5	Mia
Ertz	19.1	47	9	AZ
Hockenson	18	47	7	Det
Fant	18	34	8	Den
Pitts	17.6	40	6	Atl
Higbee	16.8	34	11	LAR
Gronk	16.3	63	10	TB
Schultz	15.9	42	12	Dal
Friermuth	15.7	63	14	Pit
Seals-Jones	15.7	63	13	WAS
Goedert	15.5	47	15	PHL
Henry	15.1	60	18	NE
J Cook	14.9	64	16	LAC
Hooper	14.9	46	19	Cle
Uzomah	14.1	32	17	Cin
Engram	13.8	47	21	NYG
Knox	13.6	27	23	Buf
J Smith	13.4	38	22	NE
Njoku	12.4	24	25	Cle
Arnold	12.3	41	20	Jax
Hurst	12.3	35	27	Atl
Everett	12.1	36	26	Sea
Allie-Cox	12.1	20	28	Ind
Conklin	12	23	24	Min
Howard	11.7	30	29	TB
Dissly	10.5	23	30	Sea
Kmet	10.4	15	31	Chi
Doyle	10	16	32	Ind

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Putting Weekly Values to Work for Your Team

Each week on Twitter (Follow me @DMICmedia), I am amazed at how many players chase points instead of Consistency and Volume. If a player has a Consistency Value of over 70%, he is an automatic start each week. Since the data is compiled over more than one season, a player who has a rating of over 70% has been good against bad matchups in the past.

We can also trust coaches to game plan their studs to get the ball. The lower a player’s Consistency Rating and the bigger the spread in Best 10, the more you SHOULD be playing matchups. The best Matchup Data in the Fantasy Football world comes from the Fantasy Professor, John Bush, here at Fake Pig Skin. Best of luck this week, and look for more information on my new statistical tool, “Efficiency Average,” soon.