PGA DFS continues to provide my weekly addiction of convincing myself that I have the perfect lineup combination to win the top prize on my way to world domination. That’s right! It’s that time of year where we attempt to guess who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts.
Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do.
First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week. One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always plays a role.
Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game!
Event Information
Course: Congaree Golf Club, Par 71, 7,655 yards, Ridgeland, SC
The COVID-19 pandemic adds yet another wrinkle to the 2021 PGA Tour season schedule. What should have been the RBC Canadian Open is now the third trip to a South Carolina venue for the tour this year. Congaree Golf Club will play host to it’s first ever PGA Tour event. Unlike the other South Carolina island side courses we’ve seen, Ridgeland is a small land locked town 30ish miles northwest of Hilton Head Island.
From a little googling and Golf Channel viewing the consensus opinion is that the course is long. And, that distance should be the most significant challenge this week. Other than that, I’m not going to pretend to know much about a course where an event has never been played.
Key Metrics and Odds
Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and/or a precise approach performance. I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:
- BS–50%
- SGA–40%
- SGP–10%
The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been up to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.
| Name | Salary | Vegas Odds | WA | BS | SGA | SGP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew NeSmith | 7800 | 80/1 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 169 |
| Brooks Koepka | 11100 | 9/1 | 31.7 | 45 | 16 | 28 |
| Dustin Johnson | 11400 | 8/1 | 34.2 | 24 | 29 | 106 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 10200 | 14/1 | 41.5 | 64 | 11 | 51 |
| Henrik Norlander | 7100 | 125/1 | 46.9 | 25 | 37 | 196 |
| Martin Laird | 7800 | 66/1 | 47.9 | 12 | 68 | 147 |
| James Hahn | 7100 | 150/1 | 49.6 | 8 | 100 | 56 |
| Sungjae Im | 9700 | 20/1 | 50 | 18 | 93 | 38 |
| Russell Knox | 8200 | 60/1 | 55 | 56 | 27 | 162 |
| Harold Varner III | 8500 | 40/1 | 58.6 | 62 | 42 | 108 |
| Scott Stallings | 8000 | 70/1 | 59.8 | 73 | 32 | 105 |
| Patton Kizzire | 9100 | 40/1 | 63.1 | 83 | 51 | 12 |
| Roger Sloan | 7000 | 150/1 | 64.8 | 73 | 40 | 123 |
| Harris English | 9900 | 28/1 | 65.9 | 39 | 107 | 36 |
| Sam Ryder | 6500 | 200/1 | 66.1 | 38 | 77 | 163 |
| Cameron Percy | 6900 | 200/1 | 67.8 | 82 | 26 | 164 |
| Lucas Glover | 8600 | 40/1 | 71.8 | 54 | 78 | 136 |
| Hank Lebioda | 6900 | 125/1 | 73.4 | 103 | 30 | 99 |
| Doc Redman | 8000 | 66/1 | 76 | 79 | 66 | 101 |
| Luke List | 7900 | 66/1 | 76.3 | 52 | 76 | 199 |
| John Huh | 6800 | 150/1 | 78.5 | 68 | 65 | 185 |
| Joseph Bramlett | 7100 | 150/1 | 78.9 | 37 | 101 | 200 |
| Ben Martin | 7600 | 66/1 | 79.8 | 81 | 89 | 37 |
| Chez Reavie | 6800 | 175/1 | 81.5 | 90 | 43 | 193 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 10400 | 16/1 | 81.6 | 69 | 113 | 19 |
| Chase Seiffert | 6500 | 200/1 | 84.8 | 100 | 61 | 104 |
| Adam Schenk | 7100 | 150/1 | 85 | 78 | 85 | 120 |
| Bo Hoag | 7500 | 90/1 | 87 | 79 | 96 | 91 |
| Kramer Hickok | 7000 | 150/1 | 87.7 | 31 | 137 | 174 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 8300 | 66/1 | 90.3 | 46 | 129 | 157 |
| Brice Garnett | 7000 | 150/1 | 90.9 | 36 | 176 | 25 |
| Sepp Straka | 7700 | 100/1 | 92.7 | 73 | 119 | 86 |
| Will Gordon | 6700 | 150/1 | 97.5 | 49 | 151 | 126 |
| J.J. Spaun | 6600 | 200/1 | 97.8 | 71 | 116 | 159 |
| C.T. Pan | 8100 | 66/1 | 99.6 | 127 | 63 | 109 |
| Brian Stuard | 7100 | 150/1 | 100.2 | 96 | 102 | 114 |
| Andrew Putnam | 6900 | 150/1 | 100.4 | 132 | 80 | 24 |
| Kevin Kisner | 8700 | 40/1 | 100.5 | 84 | 136 | 41 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 7000 | 125/1 | 104.4 | 110 | 91 | 130 |
| Tyler McCumber | 6800 | 175/1 | 106.7 | 85 | 110 | 202 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 7200 | 125/1 | 108.1 | 58 | 163 | 139 |
| Luke Donald | 6800 | 200/1 | 109.7 | 133 | 64 | 176 |
| Hudson Swafford | 6500 | 300/1 | 111.3 | 54 | 181 | 119 |
| Chris Baker | 6200 | 1000/1 | 113.4 | 102 | 105 | 204 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 9500 | 25/1 | 114.5 | 119 | 102 | 142 |
| Pat Perez | 7700 | 80/1 | 114.9 | 139 | 97 | 66 |
| Kris Ventura | 6400 | 300/1 | 116.6 | 88 | 179 | 10 |
| Scott Piercy | 7200 | 100/1 | 117.6 | 137 | 74 | 195 |
| Tyler Duncan | 6700 | 150/1 | 118.1 | 142 | 70 | 191 |
| Jason Dufner | 7200 | 125/1 | 119.1 | 146 | 72 | 173 |
| Sean O'Hair | 6400 | 250/1 | 119.2 | 61 | 178 | 175 |
| Nick Taylor | 7300 | 100/1 | 120.3 | 106 | 150 | 73 |
| Danny Lee | 7000 | 150/1 | 121.8 | 125 | 98 | 201 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 7500 | 90/1 | 122.7 | 130 | 111 | 133 |
| Nate Lashley | 7500 | 100/1 | 123.3 | 120 | 126 | 129 |
| Mark Anderson | 6600 | 300/1 | 123.7 | 96 | 145 | 177 |
| Kevin Tway | 6500 | 300/1 | 126.7 | 107 | 144 | 156 |
| Josh Teater | 6600 | 250/1 | 126.7 | 107 | 152 | 124 |
| Ryan Brehm | 6400 | 350/1 | 126.7 | 57 | 204 | 166 |
| Tom Lewis | 7300 | 100/1 | 128.4 | 114 | 140 | 154 |
| Camilo Villegas | 7600 | 100/1 | 128.8 | 186 | 53 | 146 |
| D.J. Trahan | 6200 | 400/1 | 128.9 | 150 | 92 | 171 |
| Ryan Armour | 6800 | 200/1 | 129.5 | 121 | 162 | 42 |
| Michael Gligic | 6500 | 250/1 | 130.4 | 99 | 185 | 69 |
| Rob Oppenheim | 6700 | 200/1 | 130.5 | 169 | 87 | 112 |
| Vincent Whaley | 7700 | 80/1 | 131.4 | 134 | 138 | 92 |
| Nelson Ledesma | 6400 | 300/1 | 132.4 | 143 | 117 | 141 |
| David Hearn | 6400 | 300/1 | 132.8 | 112 | 188 | 16 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 8400 | 40/1 | 136.2 | 175 | 112 | 39 |
| Keith Mitchell | 8800 | 40/1 | 137.3 | 138 | 133 | 151 |
| Austin Cook | 6400 | 300/1 | 137.5 | 122 | 186 | 21 |
| Scott Brown | 6600 | 200/1 | 141 | 146 | 146 | 96 |
| Richy Werenski | 7400 | 70/1 | 141.4 | 158 | 127 | 116 |
| Peter Malnati | 6600 | 250/1 | 142.3 | 190 | 106 | 49 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 7400 | 100/1 | 144.5 | 157 | 157 | 32 |
| Padraig Harrington | 6900 | 125/1 | 145.1 | 153 | 124 | 190 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 6500 | 300/1 | 145.3 | 173 | 131 | 64 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 7200 | 100/1 | 147.5 | 117 | 200 | 90 |
| Alex Noren | 8900 | 35/1 | 147.6 | 179 | 134 | 45 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 7600 | 100/1 | 147.8 | 159 | 157 | 55 |
| Ben Taylor | 6100 | 750/1 | 150.2 | 183 | 127 | 79 |
| Scott Harrington | 6200 | 300/1 | 150.7 | 123 | 183 | 160 |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | 7800 | 66/1 | 150.8 | 167 | 155 | 53 |
| Mark Hubbard | 7000 | 150/1 | 151.9 | 176 | 147 | 51 |
| Chesson Hadley | 6700 | 250/1 | 159.5 | 189 | 159 | 14 |
| Ted Potter, Jr. | 6600 | 250/1 | 159.8 | 197 | 108 | 181 |
| J.T. Poston | 7600 | 100/1 | 161.7 | 177 | 181 | 8 |
| Ian Poulter | 9200 | 35/1 | 161.8 | 191 | 164 | 7 |
| Beau Hossler | 6500 | 250/1 | 164.1 | 155 | 193 | 94 |
| Grayson Murray | 6300 | 300/1 | 164.1 | 159 | 160 | 206 |
| Rafael Campos | 6600 | 250/1 | 165.2 | 149 | 198 | 115 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 6600 | 250/1 | 165.7 | 181 | 153 | 140 |
| Bill Haas | 6300 | 500/1 | 165.7 | 164 | 194 | 61 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 6100 | 300/1 | 167.3 | 170 | 168 | 151 |
| Xinjun Zhang | 6800 | 200/1 | 168.5 | 191 | 140 | 170 |
| Michael Kim | 6000 | 750/1 | 168.8 | 199 | 143 | 121 |
| Robby Shelton | 6700 | 150/1 | 175.4 | 201 | 149 | 153 |
| Rhein Gibson | 6300 | 400/1 | 176.4 | 202 | 180 | 34 |
| Byeong Hun An | 7400 | 125/1 | 176.7 | 188 | 156 | 203 |
| J.B. Holmes | 6700 | 250/1 | 177.6 | 185 | 166 | 187 |
| Nick Watney | 6200 | 500/1 | 178.7 | 178 | 177 | 189 |
| Hunter Mahan | 6200 | 500/1 | 184.1 | 200 | 206 | 17 |
| Sebastian Cappelen | 6300 | 500/1 | 185.3 | 196 | 197 | 85 |
| Peter Uihlein | 7300 | 100/1 | 188.7 | 205 | 190 | 102 |
| Brian Gay | 6400 | 300/1 | 190.1 | 206 | 201 | 67 |
| Martin Trainer | 6000 | 1000/1 | 190.8 | 195 | 205 | 113 |
| Sung Kang | 6900 | 125/1 | 197.3 | 204 | 202 | 145 |
| Garrick Higgo | 9000 | 40/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Seamus Power | 7500 | 80/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Lipsky | 7400 | 100/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wilco Nienaber | 7300 | 125/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davis Thompson | 7200 | 150/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Pak | 6900 | 150/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Hammer | 6800 | 200/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Chappell | 6700 | 150/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 6500 | 300/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wes Roach | 6500 | 250/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Lingmerth | 6400 | 350/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | 6400 | 350/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roberto Castro | 6400 | 300/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryson Nimmer | 6300 | 250/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Stefani | 6300 | 350/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Blaum | 6300 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Chalmers | 6300 | 400/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Gomez | 6300 | 300/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Byrd | 6300 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Sucher | 6300 | 350/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnson Wagner | 6200 | 350/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Blixt | 6200 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Barnes | 6200 | 750/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arjun Atwal | 6200 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Blick | 6200 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tain Lee | 6200 | 300/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| George McNeill | 6100 | 750/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andres Romero | 6100 | 300/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Gellerman | 6100 | 400/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Knous | 6100 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.A. Points | 6100 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Every | 6100 | 750/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Beljan | 6100 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Stadler | 6100 | 750/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Pettersson | 6100 | 750/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Bozzelli | 6100 | 750/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| William McGirt | 6100 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Purdy | 6100 | 1500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omar Uresti | 6100 | 1500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broc Everett | 6000 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Garrigus | 6000 | 750/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Ernst | 6000 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Smylie Kaufman | 6000 | 500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brant Peaper | 6000 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard S Johnson | 6000 | 1500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Rollins | 6000 | 1500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parker McLachlin | 6000 | 1500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelly Mitchum | 6000 | 1500/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Henry | 6000 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Frazar | 6000 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brendon De Jonge | 6000 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Hensby | 6000 | 1000/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
*players excluded have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify
Course History
Quick section this week. Let’s move on!
Fake Pigskin Exclusive: Join Monkey Knife Fight and Get an Instant 100% Deposit Match PLUS a Free $5 Game!
Contest Approach
My bounce back strategy last week worked out well in two of the three cases with Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Reed both contending at Muirfield Village. Unfortunately for Sungjae Im (and mostly me), he missed back-to-back cuts for the first time this season. By just one fucking stroke too!!! Yes, I’m still angry.
I’m running this strategy into the ground with Im again this week. He WILL NOT miss three straight weekends. In fact, in three full seasons on tour, he’s never done that. So, if it does happen this week, it is certified proof of God’s existence, and that he/she/it/they does in fact hate me. Along with Im, Matt (formerly Matthew) Fitzpatrick and Patton Kizzire are prime bounce back candidates for this PGA DFS week.
A couple of other notables the wagering community should be aware of are John Pak and Davis Thompson. They are both former top ranked amateurs making their professional PGA Tour debuts. Targeting young talent is always a key to any fantasy/gambling endeavor because they are priced for what they haven’t done; not what they will likely do based on their elite, albeit inexperienced, talent level.
Success in real or fake life is when that talent meets opportunity. What will likely be a relatively less challenging course by PGA standards, and what definitely is an extremely shallow field makes this a great opportunity for each to have strong debuts.
Core Four
Each week, I identify four players that I want to build around in my DK lineups. These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Patton Kizzire
- Sungjae Im
- John Pak
Good luck in Ohio! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.
