PGA DFS Palmetto Championship Preview

PGA DFS continues to provide my weekly addiction of convincing myself that I have the perfect lineup combination to win the top prize on my way to world domination. That’s right! It’s that time of year where we attempt to guess who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts.

Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do.

First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week. One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always plays a role.

Event Information

Course: Congaree Golf Club, Par 71, 7,655 yards, Ridgeland, SC

The COVID-19 pandemic adds yet another wrinkle to the 2021 PGA Tour season schedule. What should have been the RBC Canadian Open is now the third trip to a South Carolina venue for the tour this year. Congaree Golf Club will play host to it’s first ever PGA Tour event. Unlike the other South Carolina island side courses we’ve seen, Ridgeland is a small land locked town 30ish miles northwest of Hilton Head Island.

From a little googling and Golf Channel viewing the consensus opinion is that the course is long. And, that distance should be the most significant challenge this week. Other than that, I’m not going to pretend to know much about a course where an event has never been played.

Key Metrics and Odds

Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and/or a precise approach performance. I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:

  • BS–50%
  • SGA–40%
  • SGP–10%

The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been up to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.

NameSalaryVegas OddsWABSSGASGP
Matthew NeSmith780080/12359169
Brooks Koepka111009/131.7451628
Dustin Johnson114008/134.22429106
Tyrrell Hatton1020014/141.5641151
Henrik Norlander7100125/146.92537196
Martin Laird780066/147.91268147
James Hahn7100150/149.6810056
Sungjae Im970020/150189338
Russell Knox820060/1555627162
Harold Varner III850040/158.66242108
Scott Stallings800070/159.87332105
Patton Kizzire910040/163.1835112
Roger Sloan7000150/164.87340123
Harris English990028/165.93910736
Sam Ryder6500200/166.13877163
Cameron Percy6900200/167.88226164
Lucas Glover860040/171.85478136
Hank Lebioda6900125/173.41033099
Doc Redman800066/1767966101
Luke List790066/176.35276199
John Huh6800150/178.56865185
Joseph Bramlett7100150/178.937101200
Ben Martin760066/179.8818937
Chez Reavie6800175/181.59043193
Matt Fitzpatrick1040016/181.66911319
Chase Seiffert6500200/184.810061104
Adam Schenk7100150/1857885120
Bo Hoag750090/187799691
Kramer Hickok7000150/187.731137174
Jhonattan Vegas830066/190.346129157
Brice Garnett7000150/190.93617625
Sepp Straka7700100/192.77311986
Will Gordon6700150/197.549151126
J.J. Spaun6600200/197.871116159
C.T. Pan810066/199.612763109
Brian Stuard7100150/1100.296102114
Andrew Putnam6900150/1100.41328024
Kevin Kisner870040/1100.58413641
Satoshi Kodaira7000125/1104.411091130
Tyler McCumber6800175/1106.785110202
Bronson Burgoon7200125/1108.158163139
Luke Donald6800200/1109.713364176
Hudson Swafford6500300/1111.354181119
Chris Baker62001000/1113.4102105204
Tommy Fleetwood950025/1114.5119102142
Pat Perez770080/1114.91399766
Kris Ventura6400300/1116.68817910
Scott Piercy7200100/1117.613774195
Tyler Duncan6700150/1118.114270191
Jason Dufner7200125/1119.114672173
Sean O'Hair6400250/1119.261178175
Nick Taylor7300100/1120.310615073
Danny Lee7000150/1121.812598201
Erik Van Rooyen750090/1122.7130111133
Nate Lashley7500100/1123.3120126129
Mark Anderson6600300/1123.796145177
Kevin Tway6500300/1126.7107144156
Josh Teater6600250/1126.7107152124
Ryan Brehm6400350/1126.757204166
Tom Lewis7300100/1128.4114140154
Camilo Villegas7600100/1128.818653146
D.J. Trahan6200400/1128.915092171
Ryan Armour6800200/1129.512116242
Michael Gligic6500250/1130.49918569
Rob Oppenheim6700200/1130.516987112
Vincent Whaley770080/1131.413413892
Nelson Ledesma6400300/1132.4143117141
David Hearn6400300/1132.811218816
Brandt Snedeker840040/1136.217511239
Keith Mitchell880040/1137.3138133151
Austin Cook6400300/1137.512218621
Scott Brown6600200/114114614696
Richy Werenski740070/1141.4158127116
Peter Malnati6600250/1142.319010649
Vaughn Taylor7400100/1144.515715732
Padraig Harrington6900125/1145.1153124190
Aaron Baddeley6500300/1145.317313164
Patrick Rodgers7200100/1147.511720090
Alex Noren890035/1147.617913445
Rory Sabbatini7600100/1147.815915755
Ben Taylor6100750/1150.218312779
Scott Harrington6200300/1150.7123183160
Rafa Cabrera Bello780066/1150.816715553
Mark Hubbard7000150/1151.917614751
Chesson Hadley6700250/1159.518915914
Ted Potter, Jr.6600250/1159.8197108181
J.T. Poston7600100/1161.71771818
Ian Poulter920035/1161.81911647
Beau Hossler6500250/1164.115519394
Grayson Murray6300300/1164.1159160206
Rafael Campos6600250/1165.2149198115
Anirban Lahiri6600250/1165.7181153140
Bill Haas6300500/1165.716419461
Bo Van Pelt6100300/1167.3170168151
Xinjun Zhang6800200/1168.5191140170
Michael Kim6000750/1168.8199143121
Robby Shelton6700150/1175.4201149153
Rhein Gibson6300400/1176.420218034
Byeong Hun An7400125/1176.7188156203
J.B. Holmes6700250/1177.6185166187
Nick Watney6200500/1178.7178177189
Hunter Mahan6200500/1184.120020617
Sebastian Cappelen6300500/1185.319619785
Peter Uihlein7300100/1188.7205190102
Brian Gay6400300/1190.120620167
Martin Trainer60001000/1190.8195205113
Sung Kang6900125/1197.3204202145
Garrick Higgo900040/10000
Seamus Power750080/10000
David Lipsky7400100/10000
Wilco Nienaber7300125/10000
Davis Thompson7200150/10000
John Pak6900150/10000
Cole Hammer6800200/10000
Kevin Chappell6700150/10000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat6500300/10000
Wes Roach6500250/10000
David Lingmerth6400350/10000
Lucas Bjerregaard6400350/10000
Roberto Castro6400300/10000
Bryson Nimmer6300250/10000
Shawn Stefani6300350/10000
Ryan Blaum6300500/10000
Greg Chalmers6300400/10000
Fabian Gomez6300300/10000
Jonathan Byrd6300500/10000
Zack Sucher6300350/10000
Johnson Wagner6200350/10000
Jonas Blixt6200500/10000
Ricky Barnes6200750/10000
Arjun Atwal6200500/10000
Cody Blick6200500/10000
Tain Lee6200300/10000
George McNeill6100750/10000
Andres Romero6100300/10000
Michael Gellerman6100400/10000
Jim Knous61001000/10000
D.A. Points61001000/10000
Matt Every6100750/10000
Charlie Beljan61001000/10000
Kevin Stadler6100750/10000
Carl Pettersson6100750/10000
Dominic Bozzelli6100750/10000
William McGirt6100500/10000
Ted Purdy61001500/10000
Omar Uresti61001500/10000
Broc Everett60001000/10000
Robert Garrigus6000750/10000
Derek Ernst6000500/10000
Smylie Kaufman6000500/10000
Brant Peaper60001000/10000
Richard S Johnson60001500/10000
John Rollins60001500/10000
Parker McLachlin60001500/10000
Kelly Mitchum60001500/10000
J.J. Henry60001000/10000
Harrison Frazar60001000/10000
Brendon De Jonge60001000/10000
Mark Hensby60001000/10000

*players excluded have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Course History

Quick section this week. Let’s move on!

Contest Approach

My bounce back strategy last week worked out well in two of the three cases with Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Reed both contending at Muirfield Village. Unfortunately for Sungjae Im (and mostly me), he missed back-to-back cuts for the first time this season. By just one fucking stroke too!!! Yes, I’m still angry.

I’m running this strategy into the ground with Im again this week. He WILL NOT miss three straight weekends. In fact, in three full seasons on tour, he’s never done that. So, if it does happen this week, it is certified proof of God’s existence, and that he/she/it/they does in fact hate me. Along with Im, Matt (formerly Matthew) Fitzpatrick and Patton Kizzire are prime bounce back candidates for this PGA DFS week.

A couple of other notables the wagering community should be aware of are John Pak and Davis Thompson. They are both former top ranked amateurs making their professional PGA Tour debuts. Targeting young talent is always a key to any fantasy/gambling endeavor because they are priced for what they haven’t done; not what they will likely do based on their elite, albeit inexperienced, talent level.

Success in real or fake life is when that talent meets opportunity. What will likely be a relatively less challenging course by PGA standards, and what definitely is an extremely shallow field makes this a great opportunity for each to have strong debuts.

Core Four

Each week, I identify four players that I want to build around in my DK lineups. These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:

  1. Matt Fitzpatrick
  2. Patton Kizzire
  3. Sungjae Im
  4. John Pak

Good luck in Ohio! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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