PGA DFS Travelers Championship Targets

PGA DFS continues to provide my weekly addiction of convincing myself that I have the perfect lineup combination to win the top prize on my way to world domination. That’s right! It’s that time of year where we attempt to guess who will be rolling in a higher percentage of 15-20 foot birdie putts.

Is it mostly a ridiculous exercise in futility? Pretty much. But, that certainly won’t be stopping me. And, whether my suggestions work out or flame out, it will always be an honor going into every PGA DFS battle with you each week. That, and I have nothing better to do.

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First and foremost, in PGA DFS it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week. One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instinct always plays a role.

Key Metrics and Odds

Week-to-week, I put an emphasis on ball striking (BS), and strokes gained: approach (SGA) the green. They are the best golf statistics that reflect a player’s ability to consistently put themselves in position to have favorable scoring chances, regardless of course setup. I would even argue that high rankings in other stats like putting, birdies, and Par-4 scoring average are directly correlated and a byproduct of strong ball striking and/or a precise approach performance. I’ve added strokes gained: putting (SGP) and applied a weighted average (WA) calculation with the following percentages:

• BS–50%
• SGA–40%
• SGP–10%

The WA metric is meant to serve as a high level illustration on how each player’s all-around form has been up to this point in the season, based on my opinion of how each stat contributes to golf performance results. To help sift through the field regarding just these stats, I put the table below together every week using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ WA metric ranking. Sort as you wish.

Name	Salary	Vegas Odds	WA	BS	SGA	SGP
Emiliano Grillo	7300	95/1	13.7	3	6	98
Paul Casey	9900	16/1	19.3	14	3	111
Sam Burns	7700	70/1	21.7	23	20	22
Matthew NeSmith	6900	190/1	22	5	8	163
Keegan Bradley	7900	65/1	23.1	4	6	187
Joaquin Niemann	9000	44/1	24.8	13	38	31
Abraham Ancer	9100	32/1	26.3	19	30	48
Patrick Cantlay	10400	17/1	27	21	28	53
Stewart Cink	7300	85/1	27.3	25	23	56
Charley Hoffman	8600	44/1	29.2	39	10	57
Brooks Koepka	10700	15/1	30.7	42	14	41
Kevin Streelman	9400	32/1	31.8	22	27	100
Dustin Johnson	11400	12/1	33.8	26	32	80
Doug Ghim	7000	250/1	35.2	23	17	169
Russell Henley	8300	50/1	40	59	4	89
Henrik Norlander	6800	250/1	42.4	17	36	195
Cameron Tringale	7600	80/1	43.3	43	50	18
Russell Knox	7000	170/1	46.2	39	28	155
Bryson DeChambeau	11100	11/1	48.2	53	45	37
Kyle Stanley	7000	170/1	50.9	36	33	197
Harris English	8200	38/1	53.8	31	89	27
Scottie Scheffler	9600	23/1	54.5	19	96	66
Doc Redman	7600	75/1	59.1	55	55	96
Roger Sloan	6500	360/1	60.1	54	49	135
Aaron Wise	7400	85/1	60.2	50	41	188
Matthew Wolff	9300	35/1	62.3	98	22	45
Scott Stallings	6800	190/1	62.9	74	39	103
Harold Varner III	7500	100/1	63.8	63	54	107
Talor Gooch	7000	170/1	64	82	42	62
Tony Finau	9200	29/1	64.2	87	21	123
Chez Reavie	7000	170/1	64.5	69	26	196
Patton Kizzire	7100	170/1	65	75	66	11
Carlos Ortiz	7100	100/1	67.8	30	114	72
Hank Lebioda	6700	250/1	68.1	79	53	74
Sam Ryder	6200	360/1	69.2	38	87	154
Cameron Percy	6300	470/1	70	85	25	175
Chase Seiffert	6700	250/1	72.2	84	47	114
Si Woo Kim	8500	65/1	72.9	68	69	113
Luke List	7000	190/1	76	52	75	200
Joseph Bramlett	6800	200/1	76.3	26	107	205
Chris Kirk	7300	120/1	77.6	94	56	82
Will Gordon	6900	170/1	78.8	34	121	134
Max Homa	7800	75/1	79.1	111	44	60
Brendan Steele	7200	170/1	81.5	47	115	120
Lanto Griffin	7400	120/1	81.6	127	37	33
Adam Scott	8000	70/1	81.6	104	68	24
Adam Schenk	6300	310/1	83.1	55	108	124
Sebastián Muñoz	7100	190/1	83.5	76	91	91
Jason Day	7500	75/1	83.9	46	122	121
Bubba Watson	8900	37/1	86.7	51	111	168
Brian Harman	8800	31/1	87.2	91	100	17
Joel Dahmen	7000	190/1	87.9	72	86	175
C.T. Pan	7200	170/1	89.2	108	59	116
Brice Garnett	6400	310/1	90.1	37	169	40
Cameron Smith	8700	60/1	91.2	119	76	13
Satoshi Kodaira	6500	310/1	92.6	97	84	105
Sepp Straka	6500	360/1	93.4	65	129	93
Danny Lee	6900	190/1	96.5	86	83	203
Kramer Hickok	6500	360/1	96.6	43	145	171
Pat Perez	7000	170/1	96.8	117	80	63
Patrick Reed	10000	27/1	97.2	159	43	5
Hudson Swafford	6700	250/1	100.4	33	178	127
Tyler McCumber	6200	360/1	104.1	78	111	207
Luke Donald	6400	360/1	104.6	133	58	149
Justin Rose	8400	70/1	107.3	103	133	26
Michael Thompson	6700	250/1	108.6	93	134	85
Tom Hoge	6600	310/1	108.9	164	35	129
Kevin Chappell	6400	360/1	110	122	95	110
Andrew Putnam	6600	310/1	110.6	140	93	34
Scott Piercy	6600	250/1	111	127	71	191
Bronson Burgoon	6500	250/1	111.3	61	166	144
Marc Leishman	8100	75/1	112.9	154	72	71
Brian Stuard	6400	360/1	113.1	106	117	133
Zach Johnson	7100	190/1	113.3	130	120	3
J.J. Spaun	6700	310/1	114.4	81	139	183
Kevin Kisner	7100	140/1	115.1	108	147	23
Nick Taylor	6600	310/1	115.3	87	162	70
Tyler Duncan	6300	460/1	115.4	132	74	198
Francesco Molinari	7700	80/1	115.5	171	47	112
Rickie Fowler	7300	75/1	116.7	80	156	143
Erik Van Rooyen	7200	140/1	119.1	136	103	99
Sean O'Hair	6100	470/1	120.3	66	175	173
Ryan Armour	6700	250/1	122.2	116	153	30
Jason Dufner	6300	310/1	123.6	148	79	180
Michael Gligic	6200	470/1	123.9	83	189	68
Kris Ventura	6300	360/1	125	92	195	10
Denny McCarthy	6500	310/1	125.5	100	182	27
Troy Merritt	6800	310/1	127.1	170	90	61
Matt Jones	7100	170/1	127.2	120	159	36
Rob Oppenheim	6600	360/1	127.2	158	97	94
Austin Cook	6100	460/1	127.4	98	191	20
Phil Mickelson	7800	85/1	127.6	160	85	136
Ryan Moore	6800	190/1	128	120	124	184
Nate Lashley	6400	360/1	128.4	130	126	130
Harry Higgs	6500	310/1	131.3	154	122	55
Tom Lewis	6400	310/1	131.4	118	143	152
Brandt Snedeker	7200	140/1	133.1	173	104	50
K.H. Lee	6700	190/1	134.4	135	128	157
Scott Brown	6100	460/1	137.2	140	141	108
Vaughn Taylor	6600	310/1	137.6	157	138	39
Brendon Todd	7300	95/1	141.3	139	179	2
Patrick Rodgers	6900	170/1	141.5	104	203	83
Kevin Tway	6200	470/1	143.5	129	161	146
Jim Herman	6100	360/1	144	95	194	189
Mark Hubbard	6600	310/1	145.7	168	140	57
Scott Harrington	6000	1000/1	145.7	106	190	167
David Hearn	6200	750/1	145.8	124	200	38
Keith Mitchell	6900	190/1	146.8	138	159	142
Beau Hossler	6800	210/1	147.1	126	185	101
Kevin Na	7500	85/1	147.4	148	144	158
Richy Werenski	6900	210/1	147.6	166	132	118
Vincent Whaley	6400	310/1	148.9	144	168	97
Peter Malnati	6100	470/1	151.1	197	118	54
Dylan Frittelli	6700	310/1	151.6	122	181	182
Rory Sabbatini	6500	360/1	152.1	166	158	59
Maverick McNealy	7200	170/1	152.5	146	173	103
Wyndham Clark	6600	250/1	153.3	124	199	117
Rafa Cabrera Bello	7400	310/1	153.4	173	155	49
Bo Van Pelt	6300	360/1	153.8	161	152	125
Ian Poulter	7400	85/1	157.5	183	163	8
Adam Hadwin	6900	170/1	159.5	176	172	27
Chesson Hadley	7100	170/1	160.6	188	165	6
Adam Long	6800	210/1	162.1	151	197	78
Rafael Campos	6000	360/1	168.8	153	201	119
Robert Streb	6400	360/1	169	182	176	76
Ted Potter, Jr.	6200	750/1	169.9	201	125	194
Anirban Lahiri	6500	360/1	171.4	179	170	139
Mackenzie Hughes	7100	120/1	173.4	190	188	32
Byeong Hun An	6700	310/1	174.2	186	151	208
Michael Kim	6000	700/1	175	207	146	131
Brandon Hagy	6300	360/1	176.9	162	202	151
Robby Shelton	6200	460/1	178.7	205	150	162
J.B. Holmes	6200	360/1	183.9	190	177	181
Nick Watney	6100	750/1	185.9	186	184	193
Hunter Mahan	6000	700/1	187.9	204	210	19
Brian Gay	6000	700/1	192.9	209	205	64
Martin Trainer	6100	1000/1	194.6	199	209	115
Sung Kang	6300	460/1	203.8	210	206	164
Garrick Higgo	7900	70/1	0	0	0	0
Guido Migliozzi	7200	95/1	0	0	0	0
David Lipsky	6900	210/1	0	0	0	0
Steve Stricker	6800	310/1	0	0	0	0
Austin Eckroat	6600	310/1	0	0	0	0
John Pak	6400	360/1	0	0	0	0
Davis Thompson	6300	320/1	0	0	0	0
Chase Koepka	6200	700/1	0	0	0	0
Kevin Stadler	6100	1000/1	0	0	0	0
J.J. Henry	6100	750/1	0	0	0	0
William McGirt	6000	750/1	0	0	0	0
Brian Keiser	6000	700/1	0	0	0	0
Jonas Blixt	6000	700/1	0	0	0	0
Alex Beach	6000	1000/1	0	0	0	0

*players without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Core Four

Each week, I identify four players that I want to build around in my DK lineups. These selections are players that I believe potentially have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to contend/win. They will be used in all my lineups. This week’s selections:

Ryan Moore $6,800

The combination of his price and track record here enters this UNLV alum into my core this week as a building block type target. He doesn’t have any high place finishes this season, but is making enough weekends to warrant consideration in PGA DFS this week.

Another player I would target in this range is Chez Reavie. After missing six consecutive cuts he quietly finished T-14 at the Palmetto Championship, and followed that up with a modest T-40 finish at last week’s US Open. Playing at the venue of his biggest career win should assist him in continuing to trend in the right direction.

Keegan Bradley $7,900

Bradley’s outstanding ball striking and iron play has helped him put together a rock solid 2021 season. He missed the weekend at the Memorial his last time out for the first time in his last nine starts. I love him as a mid-range target to bounce back here in a place where he finished T-2 behind Reavie in 2019. Overall, Bradley is 9/10 in career cuts made in this event.

Abraham Ancer $9,100

Copy and paste everything under Bradley’s name here. Ancer is arguably the top bounce back candidate of the week. This tournament is a great spot for him to contend and potentially earn that elusive first PGA Tour win. He’s finished T-11 and T-9 the last two seasons here.

Paul Casey $9,900

I discussed Casey’s impressive Travelers Championship track record here. Beyond that, there really isn’t anything to suggest why he wouldn’t keep his high level play going this week. If the winner doesn’t come from the five figure range, this Englishman and Bubba Watson are definitely a couple of the top dark horse candidates to take it down Sunday.

Good luck in Connecticut! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.