By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 14

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 14 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 14 report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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• Predicted Total Game Points

• 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

• Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3/4 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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NE has more High-Risk Players Going than MIA Tonight

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NE vs MIA

Big spread between the teams. Suggest NE rushes more than usual and MIA passes more than usual! 

These are high passing level teams and I still expect passing levels to be 60% of the show at least

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NE

NE gets a nice DAP environment to battle into. +1.4 overall DAP and +1.9 QB DAP for Brady! Brady should get 4 scores at low risk 100.

The WRs do get a -3.5 WR DAP and that might cut into the WRs production! Cooks is low risk 96, Hogan is back at a mid risk 80. Amendola is a high risk 68! Expect 3 scores within this group!

The TE spot is missing Gronk and yet the DAP for TE is a nice +3.7. Allen can get a shot at scoring given the DAP! Hollister is also in the mix! They are high and mid-risk TEs tonight. Caution!

The RBs should be led by Burkhead, Lewis, and White. Rex is mid risk 87, Lewis is 81 low risk and White is a high risk 54! All of these can get into the mix without Gronk! White is a reasonable longshot for desperate times!

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MIA

Cutler is always a risk. I have him low ranked at 11 low risk! He does get a tough spot vs a -4.8 DAP! The good news is the WRs see a +2.8 WR DAP! They are though to get 2 scores!

Landry,  Stills, and Parker are all low risk vs this easy DAP and ranked them from 90 to 71! They can surprise under trash time conditions! Play them if needed.

The TE has a tough -3.1 TE DAP and Thomas is ranked at 72 mid risk though. Some check-downs PPR action for ya!

Can Drake rush vs NE D? He fights into a -1.6 RB DAP and might still score and collect yards especially in trash time? Play him and hope for that surprise score!

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