PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 15

John Bush
December 15, 2017

By John Bush

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 15

PPR Ranks Risk and Skew Week 15 present my rankings, which are not simply numbers on a page or column. I included my metric based risk assessments at the player and team levels as well a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.

I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a Ranking Range Skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.

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Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.

High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.

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Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.

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Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew

I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and Range Skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).

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Week 15 Team Risk Landscape

As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the week 14, High, Mid or Low-risk players.

Good Tie breaker data in DFS or Lineups!

FYI to finish my week’s picture

I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings.
I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
Blindly following numbers is not the best way!

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Figure 3 to 4. Week 15 Team Risk Landscape

Figure 3 shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories. I present an Area View of the Tabular Data for a focused view of the Teams with High to Low Counts of Risky players. (Figure 4)

We see that for the remaining week, HOU, CAR, SF, LAC, GB, and KC have the highest level of HIGH risky players ranked. This can at least get fantasy players data to pause and think about why the high risk?

The low-risk teams in week 14 are ATL, TEN, LAR, CHI, SEA, NE, and MIN

I think my rankings are closer to reality in lower risk teams than in the higher risk teams.

Good for DFS, Lineups and drop and adds this week!