2021 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2

The NFL back in full swing. Week 1 provided a ton of fun and intrigue. It also instilled a recency bias to swing lines and adjust the though of what some teams may be. Week 2 is a time to find value and buy back on teams that we had high expectations coming into the season.

Aaron is out this week but I found a couple extra options for this week. Let’s find the Week 2 value and cash some winners!

2021 Picks Record

Kyle: 2-1

Aaron: 1-2

Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs New Orleans Saints

Heading into Week 1 New Orleans was an underdog as the “home” team as this game was played in Jacksonville against a Packers team everyone loved. I was on the Saints a week ago in this column and it will likely be the easiest win of the season.

Now New Orleans heads to Carolina as a 3.5 point favorite? This is a massive overreaction for a game that opened as a pick’em prior to Week 1. 

As good as the Saints looked a week ago, there are still a ton of question marks. Can Jameis Winston be consistent when the game is on line? Even with his 5 TD passes, he barely cleared 150 passing yards.

It is also much easier to play defense when you know what the offense will be doing for 3 plus quarters.

From the Carolina perspective, last week was a mixed bag. Christian McCaffery is back and looking great. The offense left a bit to be desired but still flashed enough to have optimism. The Panthers defense looked much improved after being a total dumpster fire a season ago.

This game will be close and Carolina will have an opportunity to win this game in the 4th quarter. I will take the extra hook and back the home team here.

Pick: Panthers +3.5 

Tennessee Titans +6 vs Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks return home after an impressive performance against the Indianapolis Colts. The offense looked amazing with a clear shift in scheme. Meanwhile the Titans head to Seattle after being pantsed at home against the Cardinals.

And yet, I am all over Tennessee in this spot. They were a team that many were excited about heading into this season and to throw all that out after one game would be a wild strategy. There are issues that need to be addressed for the Titans including the offensive line and a glaring lack of play action.

This line opened up at 3.5 prior to Week 1 and moved 2.5 points based on one game. Now I am a Titans fan, so take what i’m saying with a grain of salt if you’d like. That being said, I rarely bet on or against my favorite team. This number however was too compelling to pass on.

Take the road team to bounce back this week. The Titans may not win, but they will cover the almost TD.

Pick: Titans +6

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 vs Los Angeles Rams

It can be scary to go back to the Colts after the Week 1 tromping against the Seattle Seahawks, especially with as impressive as the Rams looked in Week 1. And yet, that is exactly what I will be doing. I think last weeks results had more to do with Seattle and less to do with the Colts.

Jonathan Taylor looked great in Week 1 and was involved in the passing game which is awesome for those that have him in season-long. This is good news for the Colts also, as David Montgomery ripped the Rams defense last week. Andy Dalton and the passing game also made plays despite the lack of talent at the QB position.

This may look foolish if the Rams are just that good and roll through the league or Carson Wentz may be toast. But I am willing to stay with my preseason convictions and back the home team here. Ill back the home team here and expect things normalize a bit.

Pick: Colts +3.5

Ezekiel Elliott OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards

The Ezekiel Elliott being cooked narrative dominated the timeline after Thursday Night’s opener against Tampa Bay. He ran for just 33 yards on 11 attempts. Not exactly the production many were expecting out the gate. 

That being said, facing a Tampa Bay defense that is among if not the best in the league is not an ideal start. The game script didn’t exactly do Elliott any favors either. The good news for him is things are only getting easier going forward.

This week, Dallas heads to Los Angeles to face a Chargers team that allowed 90 yards to Antonio Gibson in Week 1. Dallas will make Elliott more of a focal point this week.

The spread in this game is set to 3.5 in favor of the Chargers. Thus Vegas is expecting a close game here. A week ago Dallas was a double-digit underdog.

While I think the passing game will be fine for DFS purposes, I fully expect Zeke to get fed here and to clear 60 rushing yards. Back Zeke this week!

Pick: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards

Josh Allen OVER 290.5 Passing Yards

This an absolute smash spot for Josh Allen this week. As much as we like Miami from a fantasy perspective, the majority of that production comes from sacks and turnovers. In Week 1 Mac Jones, making his first NFL start, threw for 281 yards.

Last season, Allen absolutely torched this defense. In their first contest he threw for 415 yards and 4 TDs. In Game 2 he threw for 224 points in a 30 point blowout.

After last weeks struggle, Allen and company will want to remind people how good he can be. I also expect Miami’s offense to produce in this spot and give Buffalo a reason to keep pushing the pace.

Pick: Josh Allen OVER 290.5

Remember, don’t bet more than you’re willing to win. Good luck in Week 2!


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