Risk and Reward-Thursday

By John Bush

 Risk and Reward-Thursday Games

I wished to give my take on the DEN vs IND Thursday Game

Risk and Reward-Thursday Games Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.


Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.



Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.



Figure 3 and 4. Week 15 Risk Levels By Team 

Risk and Reward-Thursday slide130.png

Risk and Reward-Thursday Slide2




Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 41 points) 

  • DEN 23 vs IND 18

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • IND has to face an overall Easy than AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from DEN Defense

  • DEN contends with an overall Very Easy than AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from IND Defense

  • DEN both have a higher number of High-Risk Players vs IND tonight. 48% vs 40% of Ranked Players of DEN vs IND that are high risk! 






Den gets an easy matchup with a nice 2.8 Overall DAP. Sieman, however, fights a -3.3 QB DAP and that limits his production tonight! He is a high-risk QB ranked at 24.

The WRs fight a slightly tough -0.6 W DAP and Thomas is the expected scorer tonight. He is a low risk 87. A solid play! The Other WRs are mid to high-risk tonight. Long shots for sure in your play! WRs get 2 scores!

The TEs have a shot at PPR goodness vs a +0.29 TE DAP! Traylor is the best TE on board for a score at mid-risk 43!

The RBs of Den have been flat in the last few weeks. They see an average game and might get a score. CJ Anderson is low risk 72. Booker is high risk 54 ranking. he seems to be on track earlier in the season but seemed to regress!



Risk and Reward-Thursday IND vs DEN


Brissett gets to contend into an easy 0.22 DAP! He goes against a -1.9 QB DAP! He should get 2X scores tonight!

The WR fight into a tough -3.6 WR DAP and Hilton is mid risk 76! He can score but is risky! The Other WRs are high-risk tonight! Game key for IND to win!

Jack Doyle has a great shot at delivering a score tonight. Play him as a strong play at low risk 93!

Gore and Mack get the best shot at collecting touchdowns tonight vs a +0.76 RB DAP. I expect yards and scores form them. Gore is a mid risk and lower floor than Mack. He is ranked at 73. Mack is a low risk 52 and if allowed could break some good runs tonight!

Risk and Reward-Thursday ind1.png


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