Monday Night Risk Reward Week 2

By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward

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I wished to give my take on the Monday Night Risk Reward Game…………..  CHI vs SEA


See my Weekly Rankings Articles:

snaps-per-minute-week-1-2018

targets-per-minute-week-1-2018

nonppr-ranks-risk-rewards-week-2

ppr-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-2

rb-attempts-and-touches-week-1


The analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

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Short Discussion of Risk

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team and player following the game scripts and DAP data.

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++ Note SEA has more low risk ranked players vs CHI.  Expect more variation in CHI player outcomes on average.

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CHI vs SEA

SEA CHI MNG

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CHI

CHI is favored at home over the SEA team by 4 points. Both Defenses are tougher than average at 60 rankings. It is a predicted lower scoring game!

Trubisky is a mid risk 38 ranked vs the SEA Defense and an 82 QB DAP. It figures to force CHI into rushing more than passing. He might get 2 scores. DFS fade

The WRs led by Robinson ranked a low-risk 84 can collect those 2 scores vs an easy 41 WR DAP. If Trubisky can overcome the SEA defense pass rush there is a nice opportunity for scoring. Miller is another WR that could collect but he is a high risk 59. DFS fades.

The TE should be used a lot but Burton is going up into a tough 64 TE DAP. I have him ranked at low-risk 93. He can score and be a PPR guy! Again limited by the QB play. Using him in DFS is using Trubisky in some ways. DFS fade

The fulcrum for CHI is the running backs but they face a tough 68 RB DAP. I expect 1 score and yards from Howard and Cohen collects PPR points for you. I have them both at 86 and 62 ranked at mid risk. 

Kicker Ok and Defense a DFS fade. 

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SEA CHI MNG


SEA

Wilson faces a stiff defense DAP of 91 to the QB. That forces him to run around. He can rush in a score and pass for 1 or 2 scores. I have him a low-risk 68. DFS tournaments only due to the possibility of a rushing score. 

The SEA WRs contest a rough 71 WR DAP. I have the tandem of Lockett and Marshal as the WR show Monday night. Lockett is low-risk 76 and Marshall a mid-risk 69! They can score each and collect some yards. DFS tournaments only. 

Dissly was a hot waiver wire add as he was the check-down TE for Wilson. He fights a 62 TE DAP.  I rank him at a high-risk 65 and Vannett a low-risk 60. DFS fades for both as it is hard to figure which TE can score and collect PPR points. 

The SEA RBs get the easiest path on Monday Night to score vs an RB 52 DAP. I, however, can not figure which gets the points. I lean Carson ranked high risk 60 but Penny as a rookie should continue improvement at high risk 41! Carson a DFS extreme gamble. Penny will breakout but the odds say later in the season. You will have to get lucky to be on him when that occurs. 

Kicker and Defense are solid DFS plays. 

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