Zero RB_WR Drafting vs Draft Pick Position

Zero RB_WR Drafting vs Draft Pick Position

This research article considers Zero RB, Zero WR, vs. Draft Pick positions. Does the draft pick you have to start your draft dictate your direction of drafting style Zero RB or WR?

What are Zero RB and WR drafting?

Zero RB_WR Drafting vs Draft Pick Position. The common idea for Zero RB or WR is you force your early draft picks away for the position behind the Zero. Usually, the idea is you do not draft an RB or WR for at least 3 or 4 rounds of drafting. You are loading your team with the higher player, not of the Zero position.

‘The picks can include TEs and QBs besides the forced RB or WR series. You could draft TE RB RB QB and that could be a ZERO WR pattern. On the other hand for Zero RB it could be TE, WR, WR, and or QB. These are any combination except the position of Zero picks in the first 3/4 rounds.

Luck vs Skill?

The idea of these styles was based on the fragile nature of RBs which historical can be injured more (?) or WRs that produce fewer points than good RBs. Drafting, either way, is probably based on your experience in the past or you read about it on the web? Maybe you got lucky?

Hence value and other draft styles seek to balance the early picks. You can win with use and style but you need to keep records on your successes and failure for the final say in your 2020 drafting style (Luck vs. Your Skill)

Historically has Zero RB or WR Success Associated by Draft Pick Position?

Zero RB_WR Drafting vs Draft Pick Position. That is my key hypothesis question to test. Firstly, I started with 2015 to 2019 Preseason ADP data (PS ADP) as well as End of the Season Player Fantasy Point Production (EOS FPs) Next, I defined Zero RB as 3 WRs followed by 3 RBs and Zero WRs are 3RBs followed by 3 WRs. Players were picked based on that year’s ADP based on a 12 team draft. I skipped all TEs and QBs and reordered the RB/WRs ADPs. Finally, I summed the EOS FPs for each of that year’s possibilities.

Summary of Zero RB (WR Biased) and Zero WR (RB Biased) 2015 to 2019

The tables below contain the following information:

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In the RB Biased drafting, the best picks were 11, 12, 8, 1, 9, and 7. The trend over the 5 years looked like a split from 1 to 6 vs 7 to 12 in successes for the drafting style.

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Bar Graph of 5 Year Summary

Zero RB_WR Drafting vs Draft Pick Position. The bar graph below tracks the RB Biased (Blue 1 to 12 Draft Picks) and WR Biased (Orange Draft picks 1 to 12). The analysis supports the RB Biased successes tend to be below Draft Pick 6 while the WR biased drafting was successful early in your draft picks (1 to 6). These are trends and are suggestive of an interesting aspect to Zero RB vs WR drafting.

(This is the first mention of draft picks vs Zero RB/WR I have seen). Professor be crushing this! 🙂

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Year by Year Comparisons

I needed to look across the years for the results as well. Aggregate data (Above) can miss extreme variations etc. I, therefore, turned to year by year analysis. I listed RB vs WR Biases EOS FP totals and the higher sum was assigned as the Bias of the Bias (WR purple or RB yellow).

Initially, I looked at 2015 and that year seemed to “fit” the pattern. However, looking at the rest of the years, I would say 2016 was neutral, and 2017 was as 2015 was WR early and RB Biased late. In 2018, a reversal an RB Bias was best early and WR best late. Finally, in 2019, the reversal of the pattern like 2018 was also the case.

I conclude that the draft pick patterns were much more variable in a year to year situation. 2015 was a known Zero RB year and I raked the table in money. I am more cautious for 2020 and did not go Zero RB much in my 40 leagues (so far). I tended to go to the RB side when I was early in drafts and WR side later in drafts.

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EOS FP Differences Between Zero RB vs WR Drafting 2015 to 2019 Aggregate

The DIFF metric was the EOS FP differences between the two drafting styles. These numbers were colorized by Green to Red and displayed for a quick scan. I see the overall pattern was WR bias early and RB late. Again the year to year patterns must be respected as well.

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2015 to 2019 DIFF RB vs WR Bias Drafting

The differences were plotted for visual inspection and I assigned the pattern that “fit” the data.

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Conclusions

In science, ideas stand until proven false. The overall pattern shown here stands until I can dig into depth for more metrics

  1. Zero RB vs WR drafting can work.
  2. Draft picks can influence success in these 2 approaches
  3. It will not be a simple answer I suspect as I research more into this question.
  4. I may need to use Auto-drafting in comparison as well for further enlightenment.
  5. I can say that simple drafting patterns may not work as well as informed drafting.
  6. Quit trying to find that easy way to win.
  7. Research questions, self-reflection, and your past results are your keys.
  8. My textbook linked below has psychology-based aspects discussed in several chapters. Cheap at the price to get 100s of hours of my work

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Link to my Recent Rankings Articles

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My textbook is up on Kindle for sale. 2200 pages of an action-packed metric-based tome. Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts July 2020 Edition: Crush your Fantasy Football Leagues [Print Replica] Kindle Edition by John Bush (Author)

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Kindle Book Cover Figure 2020

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