Best Ball Landscapes, Team, and Player Rankings with Uncertainty Part 3_2020

Best Ball Landscapes: Player Level. Part 3.

Best Ball Landscapes. The three levels of information for me to approach drafting in Best Ball. I covered the ADP Positional Patterns in Part 1 and Team Rankings in Part 2. Now, I focus on the player best ball rankings with uncertainty analysis. I have multiple levels of data streams to consider my plans going into the best ball.  Plan and then execute thinking with obvious flexibility.

Uncertainty Analysis Team Level for  Drafting

Uncertainty is not the same as risk. Risk assumes we know all the variables while uncertainty does not. Its uncertainty levels best consider FF. We know we are going to wrong 40% of the time. Still, I attempt to define where I believe higher uncertainty occurs. I use uncertainty then to research players and team positions. Always move toward less uncertainty in my selections.

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome. In contrast, in uncertainty, you cannot predict the likelihood of the next result.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified, while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty, you cannot.

Best Ball Landscapes Conclusion: Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them. Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience. However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*

*This source explains risk vs.uncertainty Risk vs Uncertainty

I think the issue for Fantasy Football is better described as uncertainty. I have previously outlined some steps to mitigate uncertainty. On average, the level of uncertainty goes up in a draft, so your process must change as you go into the selections. Knowing the positional patterns helps as well as team usages of positions and the pecking order within the team.

Risk and Uncertainty

*Ensure yourself from uncertainty by considering the max/min of each pick (floor to ceiling).

Usually, you hear a draft for the high ceiling, but what is the floor. Also, you can be told a draft for an upper level, but what is the maximum?

* Ensure yourself from uncertainty by considering decision trees associated with your information.

Mock Drafts or Best Balls can work these decision trees out for you.

* Ensure yourself from uncertainty by considering the Hurwicz Criterion **

* Hurwicz Criterion: The maximax and the maximin criteria of a draft pick, assumes that the fantasy player is either optimistic or pessimistic.

A more realistic approach would, however, consider the degree or index of  optimism or pessimism of the decision-maker in the process of decision-making which players to draft.

For each player considered, determine your degree of player success as well as the Ceiling and Floor for that player.

If a, a constant lying between 0 and 1, denotes the degree of your draft pick optimism, then the degree of pessimism will be 1 – a.

Then a weighted average of the maximum and minimum payoffs of action, with and 1 – an as respective weights, is computed. The action with the highest average is regarded as optimal.

I suggest using an estimate of PPR production. If you think a player will get 160 FP as your optimum, then decide the worst-case say 90 FP. Do that for all meaningful choices.
We note that nearer to unity indicates that the decision-maker is optimistic. At the same time, a value closer to zero suggests that he is pessimistic. If = 0.5, the decision-maker is said to be neutralist.

Assume that the index of optimism = 0.7. or a 70% chance you predict of hitting 160 FP for player one, then you are saying he has a 30% chance of 90 FP.

Example Matrix of Decision

Player 1   160  90  = 160*.7    plus   90*0.3    = 139

Player 2   150 100 = 150 *.75 plus 100*0.25  = 137.5

The Third Player   175  80  = 175*0.6  plus   80 *0.4   =  137

Since the average for Player 1 is maximum, it is optimal.

** Decisions Under Uncertainty

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Best Ball Landscapes. These tables are my current best ball rankings denoted as FPR (Fantasy Point Rankings). The rankings are placed in one of three columns of High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. I move to higher-ranked low uncertainty players if possible.

Defense Special Teams (DST) FPRs and Uncertainty Annotations

Best Ball Landscapes Slide36

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Kicker (K) FPRs and Uncertainty Annotations

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Quarterbacks (QB) FPRs and Uncertainty Annotations

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Running Backs (RB) Best Ball FPRs and Uncertainty Annotations

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Tight Ends (TE) Best Ball FPRs and Uncertainty Annotations

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Wide Receiver (WR) Best Ball FPRs and Uncertainty Annotations

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Best Ball Landscapes Part 3

My textbook is up on Kindle for sale. 2200 pages of an action-packed metric based tome. Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts July 2020 Edition: Crush your Fantasy Football Leagues [Print Replica] Kindle Edition by John Bush (Author)

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts

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