Best Ball Landscapes, Team, and Player Rankings with Uncertainty Part 1_2020
Best Ball Landscapes – I decided to break out from the league type rankings and present the landscape metrics I use before my drafts. I suggest you use these metrics to develop a plan you wish to follow. It is good to support an idea until it is not.
I use the graphs to “see” patterns for runs and droughts on a position. I like to consider the levels of each position vs. the rounds each position hits in terms of 12ths. As I have shown, the expectations of player success go down as you get deeper into the draft.
What are the reasons for positional runs or droughts? Does it make sense? Does your style of drafting fit into the regular pattern? For example, I usually go as the public goes as well. You are not any different than your league-mates and will need suitable trading or waiver pickups to achieve victory.
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Cognitive Flexibility Theory and Fantasy Football
(Cognitive Flexibility Theory—professor Rand Spiro). He describes it as “the ability to spontaneously restructure one’s knowledge, in many ways, an adaptive response to radically changing situational demands.” That is, it produces the versatility needed to address novelty effectively.
This theory describes the reasons for my articles on player rankings and my other discussions concerning thinking, biases, and problem-solving. I believe we must move toward this way of handling the data within an environment of uncertainty.
About 40% of your draft is going to be wrong. I suggest any improvements in your cognitive flexibility will be seen in Fantasy Football’s success. Making novel connections is also important. The systems approach in FF, which considers the game to be a network of relationships rather than as isolated pockets of knowledge. No section of data is independent.
FF systems study should enhance CF because of the switch between domain levels of Team to Position to Player within an offensive and defensive structure. I suggest systems thinking using CF will allow a process through which one situation or field metric in FF flows organically into the other.
3 Key Questions using ADP Data
(Always Questions, Analysis and then Conclusions leading to further questions) QACs System!
- Where are the trends, runs, and waves of picks for positions?
- What are Public Player Rankings with Perceived Uncertainty?
- What is the current Team Hierarchy of Player Rankings?
PPR Best Ball ADP Positional Patterns
The blue circles represent the average picks and the positional layer: WR, RB, TE, QB, and DST. The Purple Stars represent the beginnings of the next 12 of that position. You can track then the top 12, 24, etc. of each position vs. round take. Predict the patterns using these landscapes.
Best Ball Landscapes – Rounds 1 to 4.
- The critical position this year is RB. In the first round, 7/12 are RB, 4/12 WR, and 1 TE.
- If you want the top TE, you will have to reach and draft Kelce early!
- You can wait for the later WR1 types going into mid Round 3 even.
- You need to decide to take a later RB or a strong WR1 type if you are picking in the 8/9th spot or lower.
- The top 5 TEs are gone by the end of the 4th round.
- The top 6 QBs are gone by the end of the 4th round.
- Do you take an RB, WR, TE, and QB in the first 4 rounds?
- Will you choose late QB or TE drafting or both?
- 19 WRs are going to be gone by round 4 vs. 18 RBs. Neck and Neck. Many will tend to have 2 RB and 2 WRs. Balance Bias is at work?
- The extreme is going to be 4 RB or 4WR taken.
- The summary by round dominance is RB, RB, WR, and RB or QB (mixed)
- Given the balance issue RB and RB leads to a WR in the 3rd round -10/12 WR
- Everyone is thinking 2 RB and WR then toss-up pick.
- Going WR WR RB and RB is going against the public!
Best Ball Landscapes – Rounds 5 to 8.
- 5th round sees the first-half WR followed by the back-half RB
- By the 8th round, 36 WR and RB are gone, followed by 10 TE gone and QB gone.
- It’s an advantage if you can pick a late TE/QB to grab RBs and WRs in the top 8 rounds.
- Note the public starts grabbing DSTs near the 70th pick. Early!
- The summary is RB, RB, WR, RB in rounds 4 to 8th. RBs are going strong here.
Best Ball Landscapes – Rounds 9 to 12.
- WRs are moving ahead by the end of the 12th round. 55 WRs vs. 50 RBs
- TEs are into the second 12ths, and 17 TE gone by 12 rounds.
- QBs are into the second 12ths, and 17 QB gone by 12 rounds.
- Only 5 DSTs are gone. I need for the early reaches of DSTs!
- The summary is WR, RB, RB, and WRs.
Best Ball Landscapes – Rounds 13 to 16.
- WRs continue passing the RBs. Everyone has 4 to 5 RBs and now need WRs to balance.
- 70 WRs, 61 RBs, 27 TEs, and 27 QBs gone by round 16. The public is balanced on TE and QBs.
- 9 DST are gone by round 16.
- A summary is WR, WR, QB, RB/WR.
- QBs are drafted hard by mid 15th round. Team second QB most likely.
Best Ball Landscapes – Rounds 17 to 20.
- WRs are going like hotcakes in rounds 17 and 18.
- The public can see the value of WR much better than RBs in this stretch.
- Hard to see injuries, rookies, coaches fired or pressured, etc.
- Find the situational valued RBs in these rounds.
- 85 WRs, 70 RBs, 33 TEs, and 32 QBs gone by round 20.
- DST has 20 DST gone by the 20th round. Everyone taking 2 DSTs.
- The summary is WR, WR, DST, and TE.
Best Ball Landscapes – Rounds 21 to 24.
- 100 WRs, 86 RBs, 39 TEs, 38 QB, and 28 DST gone by round 24th.
- The summary is RBs, WRs, RBs, and WRs,
Best Ball Landscapes – Rounds 25 to 28.
- 110 WRs, 98 RBs, 52 TEs, 41 QBs, and 31 DST. All DSTs are taken.
- Again easier to see WRs vs. RBs in these draft rounds. Focus on RBs.
- The summary is RBs, WR, WR, and WR,
Overall Round by Round Bias
1-4 RB, RB, WR, RB/QB,
5-8 RB, RB, WR, RB,
9-12 WR, RB, RB, WRs
13-16 WR, WR, QB, RB/WR
17-20 WR, WR, DST, TE
21 to 24 RBs, WRs, RBs, WRs,
25 to 28 RBs, WR, WR, and WR,
- 7 RB in 1st to 12th rounds
- 13 to 28 rounds sees 9 WRs/16 rounds
- Folks going early QBs are hitting by round 4
- 2nd TEs going by 20th rounds
- Later, QBs by the 15th rounds.