This week NASCAR rolls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Quaker State 400. Another race means another opportunity to make some Monkey Knife Fight picks!
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Brian Twining and I help you make a few picks to try and win on Monkey Knife Fight this week.
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Brian’s Pick – More or Less
Martin Truex Jr. +.5 vs. Brad Keselowski
There hasn’t been many parties with Marty of late as Truex Jr. has just TWO top 10’s in his last 8 races. Big bad Brad hasn’t fared much better recently. Keselowski also has just two top 10’s over this span.
Heading to Atlanta may just be what both drivers need to get back into the fold however as they’re both really good here. Truex Jr. has six straight T-10’s with his worst finish being this year’s 9th place position. Keselowski was riding a six race streak dating back to 2015 of T-10’s including three straight top 2’s, until his poor 28th place finish earlier this season.
I’m siding with Truex here due to their starting positions (5th Truex Jr. & 14th Keselowski). With Marty’s teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin starting 2nd & 3rd, it’s possible they link up early to pace the field. Getting .5 with Truex knowing he’s already starting ahead of Keselowski while also being extremely successful here is a no brainer for me.
Kyle Busch +2.5 vs. Kyle Larson
Wow! 2.5 points for a driver in Busch who has finished inside the top 5 in five of the last six races in 2021 seems absurd. I know Larson has been absolutely ridiculous this year and that he’s part of my Draftkings core but, this line to me assumes Larson duplicates March’s race here while leading 269 laps.
While that may be possible, Busch’s recent string of success and his history in Atlanta has me thinking otherwise. He has finished 7th or better in the last four races, with two T-5’s in the Peach State.
Larson has similar success at Atlanta with two 2nd place finishes and three total T-10’s over his last 4 appearances. Like I mentioned when selecting Truex Jr. over Brad Keselowski though, the presence of two teammates from the green flag gives a decided early advantage to Busch and the Joe Gibbs Racing team.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Kyle is starting on the front row where he has the opportunity to lead a ton of laps early? In this battle of Kyle’s, give me the driver getting 2.5 points.
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Kyle’s Pick: More or Less
Kyle Larson MORE than 20.5 Fantasy Points
Kyle Larson is a dramatic favorite at the betting window this week, currently sitting at +225 to win the race. Despite his underwhelming performance last week, Larson has been absolute flames on the track. He has finished in the top two in 7 of the last 8 races.
At Atlanta Larson has a mixed bag of results but finished in the Top-12 in four straight. In his first start with Hendrick back in March, Larson finished 2nd leading 269 laps in the process.
All of this history combined with current form makes Larson a slam dunk to hit the over this week.
Kyle Busch – More than 18.5 Fantasy Points
Outside of Kyle Larson, nobody has shorter betting odds this week than Kyle Busch. He is currently listed at +750 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Quaker State 400.
After a bit of a rocky start to 2021 it looked like Busch may experience some of his 2020 struggles. However, he has found his form of late, finishing Top-5 in 5 of his last 6 races. He also secured a Top-5 finish back in March at this track.
With Busch starting 2nd, I expect him to have the opportunity to lead laps early, which will be important for going over 18.5 fantasy points. I’m expecting a Top-5 finish at minimum this week. That finish would require about 25 or so laps led to hit this pick, something that feels very attainable.
Good luck this week! Remember to use the promo code PIGSKIN if you have not created an account at Monkey Knife Fight. This code will give you a 100% match deposit plus a free $5 entry on your first deposit.
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