Week 15 Targets and Touches

Week 15 Targets and Touches

Week 15 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming, XMAS GAME, SATURDAY, and Rest of Games)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Weeks 10 to 15 Team Target Averages 

Week 15 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! 

Additionally, I scaled the team target averages to the league average. How does each team stack-up to the league average?

Firstly, I colored the top teams with Green colorization. PIT/KC/LAC/BUF/WAS are the top targeting teams.

Secondly, I note in red colorization BAL/TEN/NE/IND/NYJ/NO/CLE are the lower targeting teams.

Move to the deeper WRs in the top teams and avoid fringe pass-catchers in the lower targeting teams. 

 

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Bar Graph of Weeks 10 to 15 Team Target Averages vs. Recent Trends

Week 15 Targets and Touches. Visual landscapes allow deeper thinking **and are more memorable as you play Week 16 DFS and Lineups.

**Learning Through Visuals | Psychology Today

A large body of research indicates that visual cues help us to better retrieve and remember information …. Words are abstract and rather difficult for the brain to retain. In contrast, visuals are concrete and, as such, more easily remembered.

FYI-The reason I add colorization to my number-based tables to help visual learning. 

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I like to “see” the team’s Recent Trends vs. their Targeting Capacity. The Plot below presents this landscape.

The Team Avg of Targets is represented by Red Bars with Blue Borders. I sorted the league teams by High to Low Target Avg. Move left to right in metrics.  PIT/LAC/KC/WAS/BUF are the top 5 targeting teams. BAL and TEN are very low, followed by NE/IND/NYJ/NO/CLE/ 

The story does end as the activity changes, and I plotted each Team’s Late vs. Early DIFFs to catch improving versus declining. I next placed the blue lines to mark the population highs/lows. Teams above (recent improving) while the teams below are declining teams. 

Firstly, I use these metrics to adjust your view for this week. I “see” the low teams of NO/CLE are nicely improving. They are showing the best Targeting improvements. HOU/LV are also improving.  These lower targeting teams are changing.  Next, WAS/BUF are high targeting teams that are improving. These improving Teams are DFS fodder for plays this week. 

Additionally, declining teams are of concern. PIT/LAC/LAR/TB/CIN/PHI/CHI/NE are the decline teams. What is the problem(s)? 

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Team Target Efficiency Weeks 10 to 15

Week 15 Targets and Touches.  The Metrics are shown in the table below, which contains: 

Team Name with High/Low Designations by color: 

  • Weekly Average (WK 10 to 15) of Team Target Efficiency. High to Low-Blue to Red
  • Total Average of Targeting Efficiency – Targets per Second. Green to Red 
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs – Changes in the Last 3 weeks vs. the previous 3 weeks. Looking at a 6-week time frame. 
  • 2 WK Diff. Changes in TGT Efficiency within the last 2 games played. 

Firstly, the top target efficiency teams-green stained- are  PIT/LAC/ARI/DAL/TB/WAS/DET. Some of these teams are lower targeting but seem to be more efficient. 

Secondly, the lower efficiency teams are BAL/CLE/TEN/NE/NO/CIN/NYJ/MIA. Some surprises in here Caution

 

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Visual Landscapes of Targets and Efficiency

Week 15 Targets and Touches. I begin with establishing the high vs. low team efficiencies. Left vs. Right hand of the Bar Graph. Better moving to worse as you move left to right for Team TGT EFF. I also mark the recent changes in TGT EFF. What teams are improving or declining?

Notice the key improving teams (Late vs. Early DIFFs) are NO/CLE/ATL/WAS. If you look at these four teams, we see NO and WAS have QB switches! ATL and CLE are more interesting? Why? 

Additionally, declining TGT EFF teams are TB/PHI/CHI/JAX/NYJ/CIN/NE. Caution on using these QBs for this week. Go to the ones with easy match-ups. 

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Team TGT AVGs and TGT EFF – Weeks 10 to 15 Analysis.

Week 15 Targets and Touches. The metrics were sorted by TGT EFF Averages. The high targeting teams are stained with green vs. red for the low targeting teams.

  • Find the extremes.
  • I sorted the teams by TGT EFF while I previously colorized team names by TGT AVGs Greens to Reds. 

 

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Graphical Plot of Team TGT AVGs and TGT EFF – Weeks 10 to 15 Analysis.

Week 15 Targets and Touches. Teams sorted by EFF left to right best vs. worse.

  • Note the “Data Giraffes” that stand up above the herd. CAR/BUF/MIN/LAR/GB/CIN/CLE
  • “Negative Ostriches” are ARI/DAL/TB/Det/PHI/JAX/DEN

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Team Positional Player Week 10 to 15 Target, Target Averages, and DIFFs – Tables and Graphical Views

Week 15 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player TGT Avg within their teams for the “pecking order” and DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These sorted tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week 10 to 15                         ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                                   ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Late vs. Early DIFFs                            ( High to Low -Purple to Yellow)
  • 2 Week DIFFs                                         ( High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real, and will it be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. 

This is the time for deep consideration. Scan the metrics and immerse yourself in the graphs. Find the extremes. 

My Week 16 Rankings coming, FYI. 

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My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

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Running Back Touches with Rushing vs. Receiving (ATTs vs. Targets)

Week 15 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs, especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (i.e., Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Weeks 10 to 15 RB Rushing Attempts and Averages

RB Biased Rushing Teams Stained GREEN – CLE/DAL/ARI/DEN/TEN/GB. Standard Scoring League focuses on these Team’s RBs. RED Teams – BAL/ATL/CAR/HOU/NE/PHI/LAC/NYG have lower rushing activities.  

My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

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Graphical Viewing of Team Rushing Averages and Improvement/Declines

I sorted the team’s rush attempts high to low CLE TO ATL.  Additionally, I plotted the recent trends. What teams are rushing more or less recently. I placed the blue lines to mark the league boundaries in Late vs. Early DIFF.

  • CHI/NYJ/CIN/MIA/BUF are the improving teams, and their RBs should be expected to have more rushing attempts. 
  • The declining teams are CLE/NO/TB/LV/JAC/PIT/NYG. 

Consider the reasons and apply the needed caution for Week 16! 

My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

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Weeks 10 to 15 RB Pass-Catchers and Averages

  • The Top Teams with pass-catching RBs are green stained. WAS/ARI/LAC/IND
  • The Bottom Teams red-stained are BAL/NYG/DEN/LAR/TEN/ATL

My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

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Graphical Viewing of Team Rushing RB Targets and Improvement/Declines

I bracketed the graph with blue lines to mark the upper/lower boundaries and show teams above or below those extremes in recent RB TGTs-Late vs. Early DIFF changes.

  • Improving RB passing activity teams are NO/DAL/HOU/CHI/MIA/MIN/DEN.
  • Declining RB passing are LAC/IND/JAC/PHI/BUF/NE/CIN/NYG.

Consider the reasons and apply the needed caution for Week 16!

My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

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TEAM RB Rush/Target Analysis Summary

The table below lists the Rushing vs. Pass-Catching Team RBs. I present Team RB Average Rushing Attempts and Averages of Targets and ATTs vs. TGT ratios A/T. 

I sorted the team data by the A/T ratios. The High Rushing Teams fell-out at the top and are stained in YELLOW.  Expect these teams to be rushing their RBs and not throwing much TO THEM. Adjust Week 16 accordingly.

 

 

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Graphical Plots of Team RB Rush/Targets

The plot highlights the Teams high in rushing or targets -left to right. The pink line marks the Rushing Attempts Average. High above vs. Low Rushing below.  Extremes are clear, as are the more balanced teams are in the middle of the plot. 

The distance between the ATTs and TGTs -GREEN vs. RED – displays the movement from mostly rushing to teams with the highest TGT RBs. Left to right trend. The YELLOW Bars represent the gaps within each team. LEFT  are teams with higher rushing, while the RIGHT teams where RB collect more TGTs. 

My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

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Player Level Rushing Attempts vs. Targets with Averages Within Teams

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs. pass-catching in their teams. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. I would stroll through to get a sense of the trends. 

These tables contain:

  • 4 Teams

  • RB Players

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 10 to 15

  • Targets Weeks 10 to 15

  • Obvious Players are shown as Rushers or Pass-catchers or Both. 

  • The Bar Graphs following the tables display the Team data and scan for proper analysis. 

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My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

————————————————————————————– My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

————————————————————————————– My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————– My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

 

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————– My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————– My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————– My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————– My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

————————————————————————————–My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

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Final Process

I go through all these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

I consider the level of committee work in thinking about this week’s games. What is going to change? New Faces or New Levels of Activity?

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Week 15 Targets and Touches.

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