Best Ball Landscapes, Team, and Player Rankings with Uncertainty Part 2_2020

By John Bush
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Updated: July 18, 2020

Best Ball Landscapes Part 2

Part 1 Best Ball Article

Best Ball Landscapes. Best Ball is a different league type and requires much planning than you might think. Concepts that are necessary for understanding

1) MFL10s need three defenses for your teams!

2) All positions need an understanding of depth charts and player injury history.

3) QBs once you are passed, the top few are drafted later and with different bye weeks (2 to 3 QB drafted). Watch for QBs with hot rookie QB drafted, and they may be the QB later in the season. I avoid those situations if possible

4) Runs and ADP patterns are critical to your draft. You did not need to be at the end of the series etc. Predict when and who.

5) Target lists of players to take and avoid. Rookies etc. can be both over and under-valued. Find them.

6) If you have an edge on best ball leagues (past results), then play are many as you can. Game theory suggests maximizing your plays with an edge. If you lose at best-ball, later play a few and more expensive ones to get lucky. However, you should never play a negative ROR game.

7) Boom and Bust players are best ball gold find them.

8) Reach for key targets if needed. Do not make a poor choice just because their ADP says they are a bargain now.

9) Fear is not reasonable, especially at the end of a positional run. I switch and draft against the tide.

10) Always try to move against the public for max value.

11) Do not be confused if “your player” seems to be ignored. Unless you have research time, go ahead, and use your plan. After the draft, then note and investigate the “over” or “underlays.”

12) I use slow drafting to maintain balance. Psychology suggests rational decision fatigue is a real issue associated with low blood sugar. Have snacks for an energy boost. Do use energy drinks; they have “speed” in them.

13) Do drafts on your phone as well as a computer, so you do not miss a pick.

14) Setup, a player, pick players for your que at night, so you are not caught at early morning. Did not draw dead if you can help it.

15) Work to push away cognitive biases in FF, such as balance. I must draft an RB after a WR pick, etc., only if it makes sense and is in your plans.

16) I avoid chats during drafts. Hearing “recent” news, player bragging, etc. can cause doublethink. It is hard to mentally balance probabilities unless you have that skill.

17) You will not win all the best-ball leagues if you can cash in 20% or more that is good.

18) Count money and keep records after the season. They do not pay-off at the quarter pole in horse racing.

19) Play early, mid, or late preseason if your record show you have success across the board.

20) Look at others for their approach if they won your league. Why? Patterns?

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Team Level Fantasy Professor Best Ball Rankings (FPR) Table and Bar Graph Scaled FPRs.

Landscape Views allow me to frame the system in terms of players rankings and age. Which teams are the Best in terms of Best Ball FPR (Fantasy Point Rankings scaled 0 to 100)?

I sorted the teams by FPR averages, and the top best ball teams predicted for 2020 are CLE, DAL, CAR, LAR, TEN, NYG, and LAC, while JAC, WAS, MIA, CHI, NE and LV at the lowest FPR average teams.

Use these metrics to force later pickups in your drafts. Move to high ranked teams.

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Team Positional Best Ball Average FPR

Best Ball Landscapes. I next drill down into the level of position within each team. Move to higher rankings. I note the extremes for my drafts and move into the players.

The Bar graph highlights the 50% value level (purple line) when looking at FPR.

Note these Average speak to the entire players within the position vs a highly ranked player only. Use to get an idea about positional depth as well as rankings.