Defense Against the Position. Part 1

Defense Against the Position. Overall Offensive DAPs (Defense Against the Position) for 2020 Season

Defense Against the Position. The table below presents the 2020 DAP of all 32 NFL teams. I have scaled the DAP metrics to the league average in all the columns.

Easy teams will have high positive numbers (green), while tough teams (red) will have high negative numbers.

The team names are colorized based on their overall Offense DAP, which is a broad view of all parts of the Team’s defense.

The predicted easier teams with weak defenses are ARI, DET, NYG, WAS, LVR, MIA, and CIN. The DAP concept suggests that teams playing these easy teams will score many FP etc. The opposite is the stricter team defenses of NE, SF, PIT, BUF, CHI, LAC, PHI, NO, LAR and DEN. Playing these teams should result in lower FP scoring.

These metrics then are a summation of the entire 2020 16 game season into one figure. You can use to predict the strength of a position schedule. Easy, Average, or Tough. Drafters use these DAPs to tiebreak between closely ranked players. Some players use to see the DAPs in the playoff weeks to focus on easy vs. tough schedules.

Slide1 Defense Against the Position

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TEAM DAPS By Tiers of Easy vs. Tough Defenses

Defense Against the Position. These next 4 tabular blocks of DAP data show all teams within their type of 2020 defense expected. These are a summary view, but as you scan through the Team’s individual DAP columns, expect to find surprises. 

For example, look for extreme DAPs outside the predicted overall DAP of each team. 

Firstly, let us note that JAX has an extreme DAP toward RBs (easy +40) but is tough against the opponent’s TEs (-16.8 DAP). That is a crucial fact as most of your league-mates if they use DAPs while focusing overall and not to the position. Secondly, then within lineups and DFS plays against JAX, you would tend to fade the TEs and double down on the RBs. Additionally, the opponent’s game script may change with success on rushing, leading you to consider the passing game becoming less that though in that game—advantages in DFS for sure. 

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Extremely Easy

Slide2 Defense Against the Position

Above Average Easy

Slide3 Defense Against the Position

Below Average Hard

Slide4 Defense Against the Position

Extremely Hard

Slide5 Defense Against the Position

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Rushing, Passing and Receiving Annotated DAPs

Defense Against the Position. Below is each Team’s overall defense against Rushing, Passing, and Receiving. I then annotated the extremes in the next series of columns, only noting the extremes of Easy or Tough. The metrics were sorted by Receiving DAPS.

ARI, NYG, DET, LV, WAS, MIA, TB, TEN, SEA and DAL are the easiest teams for receiving DAPs. 

NE, LAC, BUF, SF, BAL, PIT,  and JAX are the harder teams in receiving DAPs. 

Use these metrics in the early season for help in DFS and lineups. 

Slide6 Defense Against the Position

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Offensive 2019 DAPs vs. DAPs based on 3 Weeks of 2019.

Defense Against the Position. Many players think that using last year’s defense data to make this year’s DAPs is not very good. These players would argue that it would be better to wait and use the first 3 weeks or so of defense data from the year, and that would be better. 

I wish to at least try to consider this concept knowing we still need preseason DAPS (my articles). Below are the metrics from my investigation from 2019. I simplified the parameters to use the overall DAPs from 2019 (complete season) vs. the offensive DAPs based on the first 3 weeks of 2019. 

How do these compare? What is the level of false positions and negatives in preseasonal DAPs? These are vital questions. The graph below presents in blue the 2019 preseason DAPs (from 2019 data) while the orange bars are DAPs from the first 3 weeks of 2019 season. 

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Results of the Experiment

Analysis of the bar graph can be done in several ways:

Team vs. Team

Wrong Teams are defines as the complete opposite between the 3 weeks vs. the entire season. I focus on teams that are above the 0 lines (league average) and below the league average. Remember above is pointing to teams with an easy defense vs. below 0 being the tougher team defenses. 

  • NE 3 weeks easy vs. all-season the toughest DST.
  • NO 3 weeks easy vs. all-season a tough DST.
  • PIT 3 weeks easy vs. all-season a tough DST.
  • ATL 3 weeks tough vs. all-season easy
  • TEN 3 weeks tough vs. all-season easy
  • CAR 3 weeks tough vs. all-season easy
  • JAX 3 weeks tough vs. all-season easy
  • DET 3 weeks tough vs. all-season easy

Results then are 8/32 wrong (25%) vs. 75% fairly accurate! The balance of these misses was only 3 deemed easy that were not and 5 that were tough, but they could not continue that trend. Assume we use the 3 weeks of data but watch out for the misses. Long Term question for me! 

Slide7 Defense Against the Position

Trend Line Analysis

Note that the extremes within 3 weeks of data are flat vs. seasonal DAPs. Expect movement within the Team’s DSTs.  Red vs. Blue trend-lines. That implies a rusty? DST early that makes adjustments, but many fail, but the tough get tougher vs. easy gets easier.

In the Playoffs, therefore, your plans are secure, and you really should use the DAPs to plan for them.

Slide8 Defense Against the Position

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Seasonal Segments vs. Positional DAPS

I present tabular and bar graph metrics.

Overall:

  • RBs should have the toughest year vs. the other positions. 
  • QBs will have a good year across the league. 
  • WR and TE will have slightly easier seasons. 

I, therefore, have concerns about RBs. Uncertainty exists in this position with COvid and now a naturally tough season. I would do more in-depth research and definitely grab RB handcuffs.

I also note a little early season bump for WRs, but the segments seem the same.

Slide10 Defense Against the Position

Slide11

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Home vs. Away Games DAP ANalysis.

The prevailing view is that home games are easy, and away games are tough.  I wished to dig into that for 2020. I divided each Team’s schedule into Away (Pink Purple) vs. Home (Purple-Blue) within the season segments of Early, Late, and Playoffs. The table and bar-graph display those determined metrics.

EARLY Games 1 to 7

Analysis suggests within the early season of games 1 to 7, the Home games will be kind to the home team. QBs will be 3X easier, WRs 2.1X is easier, TEs 9X easier, and RB 2x easier. Those conclusions fit with the prevailing view

LATE Games 8 to 13

Analysis within the late-season games of 8 to 13, reveals a surprising mix of findings.  QBs and TEs are expected to have easier home games while WRs and RB will actually have a tougher time at home vs. away! The WRs will have a 3X tougher time at home, while RBs will be tested at 1.6 X harder defenses.

Playoffs Games 14 to 16

The playoffs are essential for all leagues and can include games 14 to 16.  Analysis suggests all positions will have a series of hard home games. This is key, as most will assume the opposite. Use to draft critical assets for this surprising time of the 2020 season.  QBs will have an 8X harder time, RB 5X harder, TEs with a 5.5X hard time and WR will have a 4X tougher go home vs. away games.

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Link to my Recent Rankings Articles

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