Red Zone Team Tendencies Part 1

Red Zone Team Tendencies

Red Zone Team Tendencies is a way to capture 2019 Red Zone Team Trends (assuming that teams will follow their trends) into 2020. Which Teams are scoring by Rushing vs. passing? The extent to use these trends is still being researched; however, I would use it as a tie-breaker at this point to pick closely-ranked players from teams whose Red Zone metric fits them.

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Passing, Receiving and Rushing Red Zone (RZ) Team Metrics

Red Zone Team Tendencies. The table below separates the yardage from passing, receiving, and rushing as well as totals in RZ yards. I sorted the 2019 data from high to low RZ yardage. Additionally, I colorized the teams into 4 categories of (High, Above Average, Below Average, and Low RZ yardages).

The extremes in any data set are of great interest to me. These are the ends of the data which can have a large impact on your fantasy team. The extremes would be underestimated by the public as the average metrics are easier seen. 

The top teams in 2019 RZ were BAL, SEA, NO, LAR, ATL, HOU, PHI, and TB, while the bottoms were ARI, JAX, BUF, DEN, WAS, NYJ, and PIT (worst).  I suspect that 2020 will see changes, but for now, these are the metrics available going into 2020.

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Scaled Sums of 2019 RZ Team Metrics Table and Graph

Red Zone Team Tendencies. I use scaling as a way to see a clear picture of each Team’s metrics vs. league average. Additionally, the plot of the scaled parameters is also a clear view for easy review for your drafts. Finally, the really 3 top extremes in BAL/SEA/NO and 2 bottom extremes in NYJ and PIT.

I suggest that PIT’s 2019 RZ will not be repeated as Ben is coming back. The public may be underestimating that situation. I see no reason SEA, and NO will not be high in RZ activity. BAL might try to get its QB to rush less, and that can lower RZ success as the TeamTeam was geared to support a rushing QB.

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Using the graph, the scaled RZ metrics are biased still to the negative. This asymmetry suggests that if your TeamTeam is weak in the RZ, then it is feeble. The strong 3 are very strong in RZ activity.

Note 10 teams are at -65 RZ metrics vs 4 are very strong. Therefore use RZ metrics is a disqualifier more than awarding credits in 2020. 

Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide3

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Normalized RZ Team Metrics 

The next series of tables and graphs are team-specific RZ metrics with the following:

  • RZ Bias – The level os RZ activity was calculated and placed on a scale of 0 (worst) to 3 (best)
  • RZ Bias Annotation – I assigned an RZ level of the Team’s bias to either Rushing or passing for an RZ touchdown. RBs would be favored in a rushing vs. TE WRs favored in a passing RZ Team. 
  • Normalized on a scaled of 0 to 100 (low to high RZ activity) for Passing Receiving and Rushing.  Each Team was rated on a 100 point scale for those 3 RZ activities. 
  • The colorization was assigned as Passing High – Green vs Low Red, Receiving High Blue vs Low Red, and Rushing High Purple vs Low Yellow. Scan across to get a “Blink Level View** ” of the team.   **Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking Malcolm Gladwell 

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: ARI ATL BAL BUF

Use these to imagine a Team’s RZ activities for 2020. 

  1. ATL will be passing to score and Matt Ryan connecting to his pass-catchers. All ATL pass catchers get a tick up in 2020 drafting. Grabbing Russel Gage as a best-ball play late FYI! 
  2. Concerns for ARI, but the public predicts an improving season for them in 2020. 
  3. BAL gets a high RZ rushing due to its rushing QB. Watch for this in 2020
  4. BUF does its business rushing, not passing. Concerns for Diggs etc. in receiving. 

Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide4

I use the graph to visualize the data! I use this as a way to memorize the RZ activity for 2020 drafts. 

Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide5

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: CAR CHI CIN CLE

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: DAL DEN DET GB

Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide8

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: HOU IND JAX KC

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Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide11

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: LAC LAR MIA MIN

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Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide13

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: NE NO NYG NYJ

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Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide15

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: OAK PHI PIT SEA

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Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide17

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Red Zone Team Tendencies: SF TB TEN WAS

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Red Zone Team Tendencies Slide19

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Link to my Recent Rankings Articles

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