All in One Rankings: Uncertainty Analysis

All in One Rankings: Uncertainty Analysis

Introduction

This article is the third of 3 that shows you my journey using my ALL in ONE (AIO) rankings analysis. I have gathered using meta-data processes current Dynasty, PPR, NON-PPR, and Half PPR rankings.  I placed all these rankings into the same numerical scale of 100 to 0 (best to worst). This normalization allows us to build landscape views of Teams, Positions, and Players. As an aside, I am researching this ALL in ONE deeper and will report in my textbook for 2020! All in One Rankings: Uncertainty Analysis


Uncertainty Levels for Each Player (All from my textbook as well)

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

I think the issue for Fantasy Football is better described as uncertainty. I have previously outlined some steps to mitigate uncertainty. On average the level of uncertainty goes up in a draft, so your process must change as you go into the draft. Knowing the positional patterns helps as well as team usages of positions and the pecking order within the team. I provide a view of the level player uncertainty within a Team framework. 


Uncertainty Player Insurance

*To Insure yourself from uncertainty by considering the max/min of each pick (floor to ceiling).

Usually, you hear that you should draft for the high ceiling but what is the floor. Also, you can be told draft for a high floor but what is the maximum?

* Insure yourself from uncertainty by considering decision trees associated with your information.

Mock Drafts or Best Balls can work these decision trees out for you.

* Insure yourself from uncertainty by considering the Hurwicz Criterion **

** Hurwicz Criterion: The maximax and the maximin criteria of a draft pick, assumes that the fantasy player is either optimistic or pessimistic.

A more realistic approach would, however, to consider the degree or index of  optimism or pessimism of the decision-maker in the process of decision-making which players to draft

For each player considered determine your degree of player success as well as the Ceiling and Floor for that player.

If a, a constant lying between 0 and 1, denotes the degree of your draft pick optimism, then the degree of pessimism will be 1 – a.

Then a weighted average of the maximum and minimum payoffs of action, with and 1 – as respective weights, is computed. The action with the highest average is regarded as optimal.

I suggest using an estimate of PPR production. If you think a player will get 160 FP as your optimum, then decide the worst-case say 90 FP. Do that for all major choices.

We note that nearer to unity indicates that the decision-maker is optimistic while a value nearer to zero indicates that he is pessimistic. If = 0.5, the decision-maker is said to be neutralist.

Assume that the index of optimism = 0.7. or a 70% chance you predict of hitting 160 FP for player 1 then you are saying he has a 30% chance of 90 FP.

Example Matrix of Decision

The first Player is   160  90  = 160*.7    plus   90*0.3    = 139

Player 2   150 100 = 150 *.75 plus 100*0.25  = 137.5

Player 3   175  80  = 175*0.6  plus   80 *0.4   =  137

Since the average for Player 1 is maximum, it is optimal.

** https://www.wisdomjobs.com/e-university/quantitative-techniques-for-management-tutorial-297/decision-making-under-uncertainty-10067.html


All in One Rankings: Uncertainty Analysis

Given the discussion above and your time for this task, I present my All in One Uncertainty Annotations for Players within their teams. Consider these following figures a “rule of thumb” for quick player drafting.  Use the above methods for deeper uncertainty analysis. 


Each 2 Team Level Figures presents:

  • Team,
  • Player,
  • Position,
  • League Style (Dynasty/Half Point PPR/Non-PPR/Full Point PPR)
  • and level of uncertainty (Red, Yellow, and Green – High, Medium, and Low Levels)

Useful Informatics Tools:

  1. Use as Tie-Breakers,
  2. Trade Analysis,
  3. Wavier Wire Acquisitions
  4. All in One Rankings: Uncertainty Analysis


Slide69

Slide70


Slide71

Slide72


Slide73

Slide74


Slide75

Slide76


Slide77

Slide78


Slide79

Slide80


Slide81

Slide82


Slide83

Slide84


Slide85

slide86.jpg


Slide87

Slide88


Slide89

Slide90


Slide91

Slide92


Slide93

Slide94


Slide95

Slide96



Slide97

Slide98


Slide99

Slide100


Slide101

Slide102


Slide103

Slide104


Slide105

Slide106


Slide107

Slide108


Slide109

Slide110


Slide111

Slide112


slide113.jpg

Slide114


Slide115

Slide116


Slide117

Slide118


Slide119

Slide120


Slide121

Slide122


Slide123

Slide124


Slide125

Slide126


Slide127

Slide128


Slide129

Slide130


Slide131

Slide132


All in One Rankings: Uncertainty Analysis


============================================================================

Fun Research in my textbook!

If you liked a metric-driven view of Fantasy Football check out my 2000 page textbook!

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook: June 2019 Edition [Print Replica] Kindle Edition

Click Link Below

Textbook on Kindle


Please Read

Part 1 ADP to FP/G QBs and RBs

Part 2 WR and TE ADPs to FP/G

AFC ADP to FP

NFC ADP to FP


Defense Against the Positions Part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5

DAPs Part 1 Link

DAPs Part 2 Link

Analysis of DAP Part 3

DAP Best and Worst Players Part 4

DAP Analysis 2019 Playoffs and Bye Week


Targets

targets-targets-per-game-and-average-draft-position-analysis


Planning Outline for Drafting and In-Season Work

fantasy-football-planning-2019


ALL in One Rankings

All In One Players

All-in-One-Rankings-Team-level

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: