NFC Average Draft Position vs Fantasy Points per Game allows readers to spot 2019 positional committees and trends for our thinking processes. Welcome to my next multiple part series of articles. The metrics presented here are not my personal projections but those FP/G projections based on the Public’s PPR ADPs.
I used the last 5 years of preseason ADPs and compared to the end of seasonal FP scored by those players. Next, I applied a mathematic data transformation to create conversion factors for each position. Finally, this transformation model was applied to the current PPR ADP based FP/Gs to create player data projections based on what the public is telling us.
NFC Average Draft Position vs Fantasy Points per Game Uncertainty
Under uncertainty, one way to deal with that issue is to develop reference class forecasting. We remove our biased insider views and look instead from an outside view. Now using my methods, we are free to study and debate what the public is telling us really. 100 ADP vs 120 ADP is hard to understand but 10 FP/G vs 8 FG/G is much easier to determine the differences.
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link – Reference Class Forecasting.
NFC Average Draft Position vs Fantasy Points per Game – COM Score
COM SCORE- This is a simple percentage comparison between 2 players of the same position within a team based on NFC Average Draft Position vs Fantasy Points per Game
I would use this score:
- Form an opinion of whether a WRBC exists and how many WRs are in that committee. — Think LAR with Cooks (100%), Woods (94.6% of Cooks) and Kupp (96.7% of Woods) vs HOU with mainly Hopkins 100% vs Fuller (56% of Hopkins) and Coutee (90% of Fuller)
- How many players are thought to be within a small or large % of FP/G
- Strength of the public’s opinion of a player
- Potential injury handcuffs from the public’s viewpoint.
NFC Average Draft Position vs Fantasy Points per Game – Team Metrics and Positional Relationships
Team Metrics– Each team has 2 blocks of data, I started with the visual graphs first as I believe that this method of data presentation is beneficial for learning. See the interesting link — New-look-visual-thinking
The graphical side of the data reveals the team landscape and illustrates the entire picture of the ADP to FP/G metrics. I list the predicted FP per Game data in BAR graphs while the COM scores are in a line format. Note the 2 scales for each metric (Left is the FP/G and Right is Com Score %)
Positional Relationships are uncovered by these data blocks using NFC Average Draft Position vs Fantasy Points per Game data. The extremes are easily spotted as well. Sleepers are now players that are hidden by all the data from all directions. (Forest vs Trees Concept)
A lot of data does not improve accuracy but just gives you more confidence in your same accurate choices. (Big Concept here! – see my textbook for deeper discussions). In other words, at some point, you have gotten all you can handle from data for decisions.
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I suggest, we now we must use visual as a method to rethink our conclusions. Thus my 2 data block approach with tables (metrics folks) and graphs (visual learners)!
- RBs- David Johnson is the clear Bell-Cow > Chase Edmonds at 25%
- TE- RSJ TE1 but not expected to do much.
- WRs.- Interesting crew. Kirk vs Fitz 3% difference (no difference really). 2 WRBC then with Isabella is within 35% of these 2 WRs. I suspect a 3 WRs committee here. Isabella is a late Best Ball or handcuff grab.
- RBs- Freeman close to a full Bell-Cow but has some Bell-Calf possibilities with Ito Smith at 63%. Strong play in Zero RB situations.
- TE- Hooper has a nice shot at being a solid player for your TE.
- WR- Interesting that Ridley is at 68% of Julio? Given the buzz on Ridley, I would have thought he would be within 80% or so. Is the public too low on Ridley. A key question for research! Furthermore, Sanu is still in the mix as a best ball late play. If Julio is injured Sanu moves up. He is close to free. Great WR handcuff.
- RB- CMC is the only RB on the public’s radar. Cameron Artis Payne the handcuff?
- TE- Public does not trust Olsen or Thomas. Late TE in best ball? TE-2/3
- WR- 2WRBC with DJ Moore and Samuel 21% similar. Is Moore too high? Draft Samuel Later?
- RB- RBCC with Montgomery and Cohen 5% difference. Consider them the same. Davis is also rated at 46% of Cohen. Davis a free handcuff- handcuff. Best Ball late grab!
- WR- Public rate 4 WRs but nearly a WRBC with Robinson and Miller 23% difference. Gabriel and Ridley distant 3/4 types. Hard to pick the WR3 now. Best ball if you can pick the WR3!
- RB- Elliot Bell-Cow > Pollard by 79%. Pollard is the next man up? Darius Jackson or Weber. The public votes Pollard over others. Murky without Elliot. Pollard on your watch list for sure. Best Ball gamble as well! Alfred Morris added as well. Confusion in this backfield. Morris now is a best ball late add.
- TE- Witten is the TE-1. Gamble for Best Ball TE2-3 types.
- WRs- Cooper is Dominate vs Gallup and Cobb by 46% or more. Gallup and Cobb close within the 20% of each other.
- RB- DET dropped Theo Riddick. Thus we now have a 2 RB crew Johnson > CJ Anderson by 44%. Note DET has other Zenner etc that might be the 3rd RB. They should not be above 3 FP/G.
- TE- The rookie TJ Hockenson > Outlaw Jesse James by 88%.
- WR- 2WRBC of Golladay and Jones. Differ by 24%. Amendola 3% of the show, a handcuff for the top WRs only. Late Best Ball play?
- RB- Jones>Williams>Dexter 47% and 16% differences in these players. Jones a potential Bell-Cow? The 2 Williams seems the same. Does that complement Dexter or downgrade Jamaal? Pick the right one for handcuff status. Either might be good best-ball play.
- TE- Graham would seem to be counted out vs Sternberger. Differ by 63% though. Opportunity is here for solving this problem?
- WR- 5 WRs ranked by the public, interesting situation as the landscape is murky. Adams is the obvious top WRs but the WR-2 is not clear. Allison vs MVS differ by 3% but both 50% below Adams? This issue needs extra attention to research. Additionally, Kumerow and St. Brown are also the same but 95% below the WR-2/3 group. Why does the public even rank them? Having Rodgers seems to be the reason for this extra attention.
- QB- No expectation of Goff losing his job. However, the public gives Bortles QB-2 a 27% hit at the QB position. All pass receivers would suffer as well FYI.
- RB- Gurley, and Henderson closer because of Gurley’s injury issues. Only 31% difference between them. Gurley is expected to be a Bell-Cow but the ice is thin for him. Brown is half the value of Henderson.
- WR- Most interesting WR of 3 WRs the same value. 6% difference at the highest. If you can pick the top in this trio, the value might be there especially if an injury. In some ways, a gamble and the lowest ADP player should be the pick if all is equal.
- RB – Cooks vs Mattison 48% difference. Is Cook a real Bell-Cow? 2018 – Cook 11 games 10.5 PPR FP/G and 2017 4 games 14.1 FP/G. Thus Cook at 15/32 games played with 11.46 FP/G. The public predicts 13.2 and thus is saying that Cook will improve by 15%. Cook seems to be drafted at his ceiling?
- TE- Rudolph > Smith by 85%. No issues Rudolph is the TE-1
- WR – Thielen vs Diggs, they are the same within 6%, Diggs, better pick at higher ADP? Who is the 3rd WR? That player could be interesting in best ball etc. (Treadwell, Beebe, or Taylor? )
- QB- Brees is the QB1 but Hill/Bridgewater are 28% lower. Brees at 40 years old so the public has ranked 3 QBs total to acknowledge this situation.
- RB- Kamara>Murray 42% lower with Ozigbo way down as RB-3. Give NO history, it would seem that Murray should get near 10 FP/G vs the publics 9. I am drafting him as a 10% bargain.
- WR- Thomas > Smith by 59%> Ginn by 80%. Seems a clear pecking order for NO. Note in 2018 Thomas was at 12 FP/G (at his extreme ceiling? – overpriced?). Furthermore, the next WR-2 was Ginn at 7 and Smith at 5.6 FP/G. Ginn seems a nice bargain at 1.6 FP/G draft him cheap and hope for a 7 FP/G. I would predict Smith/Ginn both near 6 to 7 FP/G.
- QB- Manning predicted to lose his job to Jones both within 3% of production. Jones nice QB-3 in best ball! Maybe QB-2 in Superflex leagues?
- RB- Barkley is the Bellest of Bell-Cows! Gamble to find handcuff though. Gallman not ranked by public ADP.
- WR- Injury and Suspensions open doors to lower WRs. Shepard and Tate within 4% but Tate suspended 4 games. Cody Latimer > Bennie Fowler by 33%. We need more data to select the Tate replacement.
- RB- Note that the Public has ranked 4 RBs. Note the FP/G for the top pair is below ten FP/G. Regardless of the “buzz”, the public is unsure about the PHI RB RRBC. Caution is in order. The top 2 are Mile Sanders Rookie with the apparent Juice of 9.6 FP/G vs Howard from CHI coming in as the slight RB-2 at 9.1. They are only 5% different based on ADP to FP/G! The hype might lead you to suspect a great difference!
- RB-This is truly an RBBC to watch for clues to parse out these 2 RBs. Clement and Smallwood are deep handcuffs and no clue to pick one over the other for the RB-3 role. Sanders may have injury issues as well. FYI.
- TE- TEBC is also here in PHI. This is a very unusual situation. However, the public is voting Ertz as the commander TE-1 and he > 93% over Goedert. In 2018 Goedert had 44 Targets/33 Receptions/4 TDs and 4.1 FP/G average while Ertz had 156/116/8 and 10.3 FP/G. Ertz was 60% better than Goedert. 60% vs 93% better is a big difference and the public is giving Goedert only 25% of his 2018 value. He has to be an overlay then for the TE-2 slot and handcuff!
- WR- 4 WR ranked and the public is giving Jeffery the WR-1 spot at 11.4 FP/G vs Jackson at 9 FP/G which is a 22% difference. Jackson the clear WR-2 and solid pick later in drafts. Essential in best ball drafting at a WR-3 spot. Agholor is the WR-2 but is 78% less than Jackson. In 2018, Jeffery has 9.3 FP/G, Jackson at 9.2 FP/G and Agholor at 6.2 FP/G. That is Jeffery>Jackson by 10% and 44% over Ahglor. Agholor the clear 2019 loser in the public’s view but given 2018, I would than Agholor is a solid WR-3/4 with upside.
RB- RBBC with Carson and Penny at an 8% difference. In 2018 Carson had 13 FP/G vs Penny at 5 FP/G which is a big difference. The public is saying that with Davis gone at 6 FP/G, 24 FP/G is now available and these 2 grab 19 to 20 of these in a near equal split. Carson drops by 3FP/G and Penny improves by 4 FP/G. This seems too much for Penny and Carson. Carson could be a slight overlay while Penny is an underlay RB! I guess a 20% difference between them.
WR- Locket is the clear WR-1 at 12.6 FP/G vs the rookie Metcalf at 9.7 FP/G, a 23% difference. Can the rookie move closer to Lockett? Rookies that can get 9.7 would be spectacular for the first year WR. Thus the public is predicting a top of the curve performance for Metcalf. I think he is priced at his ceiling.
RB- 3 RBBC Crew. A confusing situation and a 3-way split is not so good for anyone. The public says Coleman is going to produce 9.7 FP/G for his new team, followed by McKinnon at 8.4 FP/G and Breida at 7.2 FP/G. Coleman>McKinnon by 13% and Breida by 28%.
RB continued- Who is the pass-catcher RB for PPR? The targets for Coleman were 44, Breida was at 31, and McKinnon (2017) at 68. The public with McKinnon is thinking the pass-catcher and those targets are solid for PPR RB-3 type. Coleman then is the early-down guy and that places Breida as the RB-3 change of pace.
RB continued- Thus Breida is overvalued in this scenario while the other 2 are under-valued unless injuries were to occur. Coleman is at 29 ADP, McKinnon at 45 ADP, and Brieda at 57 ADP. Move Breida into RB-6 and Coleman to fringe RB-2/3 and McKinnon at solid RB-4
WR- We see a 3 way WR crew but with a clear pecking order of Pettis at 11 FP/G vs Samuel at 7.4 and Goodwin at 6.4. The last 2 WRs might be flipped but the safe play is Pettis at a WR-2/3 type. The other two are fringe WR-4/5 types
RB- ANother RBBC confusion situation with 2 RBs Jones at 8.7 vs Barber at 8.1 a 7% difference. That is close enough to consider them equal. Thus take the later ADP RB if at all to draft. In 2018 Barber was at 8.3 vs 8.1 predicted in 2019. The public, therefore, is all over Jones to move from 2.5 to 8.7 FP/G for a 300% plus improvement?
RB continued- Given that Barber was only targeted 29 times, the public is also banking on Jones to be the pass-catcher for TB. If you look at the 2018 data 55 targets can be on the table for Jones. Thus, Jones needs to get 400 receiving yards, 200 rushing, and 4 TDs to hit the 8.7 mark? Your decision is to think about his potential and opportunity. Is it enough?
TE- The public sees Howard as the top TE over Brate by 91%. Howard is about the 4th TE off the board currently while Brate is almost free. In 2018 Howard generated 8.7 FP/G vs Brate at 3.9 FP/G at a 55% advantage. Thus Howard’s FP/G must go up to 11.2 to justify Brate’s ADP. Can that happen? Howard would have to move to get 8 TDs, 850 receiving yards or so and 54 receptions. Given Howard’s 2018 pace that does seem possible. Brate is must have TE-2/3 in best ball for the injury factor.
WR- 2 Main Man Crew of Evan and Godwin for all the pie. 23% difference though! That seems reasonable as Jackson and Humphries left 179 targets to be gathered. Who is the WR3 as it might be a viable bye week/match/DFS/best ball play? Breshad Perriman seems to be the heir to the TB WR-3 role. He was a top round pick in 2015 draft but flopped. He did show flash in CLE last year and could be a gamble in best-ball and could inherit targets with injury to the top 2? Justin Watson 6’2 slot guy is also a deep sleeper 2nd-year rookie if Godwin goes down.
QB- We have a QBBC situation here and the public picks Haskins at 14.7 vs Keenum at 13.3 for a 10% difference. Hard to draft one without the other. Watch preseason etc for hints if Haskins is ready!
RB- Injury scares have lowered Guice to 9.8 FP/G vs Peterson at 7.4 and Thompson at 5.7. Is Peterson really 25% below Guice? Thompson is expected to be the pass-catcher RB. The public predicts an RRBC with Peterson rotating in and out. A confusion dilemma. Draft carefully as this might the most confusion RB crew for 2019! I would only reach for Guice as a gambling man but who skip Peterson/Thompson until each is clear ADP bargain.
TE- Reed is always an injury risk. Vernon Davis a handcuff? If you are in here its desperate times for your team. Draft Reed and another later upside play not named Davis. I am not sure Reed is worth it to cover your bases by this approach. Gamble only play. Perfect best ball TE-2 play.
WR- The public predicts 5 WRs have the same chance? This is a mistake and Doctson/Richardson/Quinn are worth more than the public thanks. The public is just avoiding this whole team. In 2018 Richardson was 5 FP/G, Doctson 4 FP/G and Crowder (gone) was 6 FP/G. Quinn the slot guy replacement for Crowder might be the play for a WR-5 type. Best Ball bargain late WR-5/6 types only.
NFC Average Draft Position vs Fantasy Points per Game – Conclusion
These figures with my opinions are meant to be a reference for your deeper thinking. I do not follow them exactly but use as a guide with other secondary factors to draft. Under uncertainty, it is best to use other factors to balance out just using one data stream.
The concept of data streams and clustering for making descsions is a big field and I suspect we have groups in fantasy football that have access to these methods especially in DFS.
Link out paper for your thinking Heterogeneous-Data-Streams-with-Uncertainty
Fun Research in my textbook!
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