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Defense Against the Position (DAP) Analysis on the 2019 Playoffs and Bye Weeks

I use the Defense Against the Position (DAP) Analysis of the metrics to focus on the 2019 Playoffs and Bye weeks. Use these DAP metrics to maximize your player drafts for all possibilities. Certainly, the DAPs will change as we get into the season but given the situation, we must use what data is in hand.


Summary Playoff Analysis via the DAP Metric Lens: Best and Worst Hotspots


Good Positional Playoff DAPs (3 Plus Weeks)

  • ARI  – WRs
  • BUF – TEs
  • CAR – RBs
  • CIN –  QBs and TEs
  • HOU – WRs
  • IND- QBs and WRs
  • JAC – RBs
  • MIA – QBs
  • NE – RBs
  • NYG – QBs
  • NYJ – TEs
  • SF – QBs and WRs
  • TEN – QBs

Poor Positional Playoff DAPs (3 Negative Weeks)

  • GB – TEs
  • KC- RBs
  • LAC – RBs
  • MIN – QBs and TEs
  • OAK – QBs and TEs
  • PIT – TEs
  • TB – RBs

Playoff Weeks 14 to 16 Positional DAPs by Team

I posted the obvious plays above in the summary section. These tables below are the actual DAP metrics I generated and they allow you to see the entire playoff week DAPs and landscapes. I used colorization to highlight the extremes in easy vs tough weeks for positions within each team.

I would note the teams with 2/3 good or poor weeks for your drafts as well. Looking at the 3-week view gives you a sense of the entire playoffs as well.

Used your DAP analysis to modify your drafts, trades, keepers, dynasty teams as well. Give the history of some rookies and deeper players coming forward later in the season, these metrics can spot the niches where these late bloomers could shine. It’s always good to have the gentle defensive winds blowing at your player backs!


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Advanced Principal Component Analysis (PCA)

I have used advanced principal component analysis (PCA) – on the 2018 data to produce team-centric values of Passing and Rushing and RB pass catching. Those components are labeled RC1 (passing) and RC2 (RB rushing and pass-catching activity).

Link PCA Definition

I concentrated on these two components to determine each team’s pass plus rushing (P/R). High numbers positive mean the team has a strength in at least one component. Focus on the positive vs negative aspects of the passing vs rushing/RB pass catching.

These metrics have been modified by the league averages in the RC1 and RC2 metrics. Negatives imply the team’s component is below league average vs positives are about the league average.

  1. OAK has the lowest metrics and is poor in passing and rushing vs league. It has -17 Passing, -9.8 rushing short pass, and -27 PR total. 
  2. MIA has the best overall PR of 20 and skews to passing vs rushing 13 vs 7
  3. NE is the top in RC2 RB rushing and Passing catching
  4. IND is the top in RC 1 passing
  5. CIN is the most balanced at 9th Passing and 4th Rushing 

PCA Offense vs DAP Analysis: A Balance

This article is the first use of PCA for a DAP analysis. You should get deeper into the offense side to determine the effect of a strong vs weak DAP schedule. I have not seen a balanced approach for playoff week analysis for sure. FYI, If you wish to further explore deeper PCA, I have a whole chapter in my textbook for sale on Kindle.

A strong passing team may overcome a tough passing defense etc. The predictions of 2019 must include the offense on the other side as well. Thus the depth would be to combine these metrics vs the playoff DAPs.

OAK has a poor playoff outlook and has a historic poor depth of passing and rushing. Dangerous combination.

MIA has a nice passing offense and faces a QB and WR friendly playoff DAPs. Could surprise this year. FYI in my 50 best ball leagues, I have 64% ownership in Kenny Stills from MIA! He is almost a free square for your team.

IND has a sweet 3 weeks for QB and WRs. Their offense is also very high in the Passing component vs the league. A nice combination here as well.



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PCA Landscapes of Passing By Team and Rushing/Short Pass RBs per Team.

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BYE Week Replacements

I wanted to include a positional level analysis of the 2019 Bye weeks. Below are my DAP tables sorted by Bye weeks. The Teams highlighted in yellow have their bye that week. I then list in order of easiest to harder schedule a list of teams to select a replacement from. I avoid players as we do have injuries etc and this is a broader metric for replacement selection.


Example in Week 4, we have NYJ and SF on byes.

  • QBs, the best match is from TEN with BAL being the worst of the best choices.  
  • RBs PIT vs WAS at bottom of the best choices
  • TEs CAR vs TB at the bottom of the best choices
  • WRs DAL vs CIN at the bottom. of the best choices

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Please Read DAPs Part 1, 2, 3, and 4

DAPs Part 1 Link

DAPs Part 2 Link

Analysis Team 2019 DAPs Part 3

Best and Worst Players DAP Part 4


Fun Research in my textbook!

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook: June 2019 Edition [Print Replica] Kindle Edition

Click Link Below

Textbook on Kindle


My current PPR rankings

ppr-power-rankings-part-1/

ppr-power-rankings-part-2/


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