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WRs to TEs: ADP conversion to Fantasy Points per Game (FP/G).

ADP conversion to Fantasy Points

Welcome to my next multiple part series of articles.  The metrics presented here are not my personal projections but those FP/G projections based on the Public’s PPR ADPs.  We get ADP conversion to Fantasy Points per Game for our thinking processes.

I used the last 5 years of preseason ADPs and compared to the end of seasonal FP scored by those players. Next, I applied a mathematic data transformation to create conversion factors for each position. Finally, this transformation model was applied to the current PPR ADP based FP/Gs to create player data projections based on what the public is telling us.

Under uncertainty, one way to deal with that issue is to develop reference class forecasting.   We remove our biased insider views and look instead from an outside view. Now using my methods, we are free to study and debate what the public is telling us really.  100 ADP vs 120 ADP is hard to understand but 10 FP/G vs 8 FG/G is much easier to determine the differences.

link – Reference Class Forecasting.


COM Score

COM SCORE- This is a simple percentage comparison between 2 players of the same position within a team.

I would use this score:

  1. Form an opinion of whether a WRBC exists and how many WRs are in that committee. — 

    Think LAR with Cooks (100%), Woods (94.6% of Cooks) and Kupp (96.7% of Woods)   vs    HOU with mainly Hopkins 100% vs Fuller (56% of Hopkins) and Coutee (90% of Fuller)

  2. How many players are thought to be within a small or large % of FP/G

  3. Strength of the public’s opinion of a player

  4. Potential injury handcuffs from the public’s viewpoint. 


The WRs and TEs Landscape of the Entire Player’s FP/G as predicted ADP conversion to Fantasy Points

This figure defines the 2019 Draft of FP/G by positions. I present each position along with the MAX (Highest), Median (50% Level) and MIN (Lowest) FP/G.


Wide Receivers

The top WRs are expected to come in at 19.5 FP/G. Note the WRs are higher than RBs because, over the 5 years, we have had more RBs failures than WRs. (See 2015). The median WRs will return 8.5 FP/G.

The upper half contains the main players you will mainly draft. The public will miss some breakouts below media but assume not unless you can support a surprise in a player’s FP/G. Now is the time to find your sleepers.  Remember to keep track of your successes to support your sleeper picks. If you are good at WR sleepers then use your energy on positions you are successful at.  (Fantasy Football Diary!)

In any data distribution, the extremes will be shaky in our confidence vs nearer to the median of the data set. You must keep this in mind. I use these data to inspire thinking from this reference data.

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Wide Receivers – FP/G Sorted High to Low using ADP conversion to Fantasy Points


Takeaways

  • We get the first WR-2 with Diggs at 14.7 FP/G and is at 93% of Thielen

  • This first WR-3 is Kupp at 13 FP/G and is very close to Cooks and Woods.

  • The first 12 WRs 19.5 to 15.0 FP/G. That group ranges down to 76% of the top value (Hopkins). 24% DIFF spread

  • The second block of 12 WRs 14.7 to 12.2 FP/G. We are now at between 75% to 62% of the top value (Hopkins). 13% DIFF spread

  • The third block of 12 WRs 12 to 10.6 FP/G. Between 61% to 54.9% of the top value (Hopkins).  6.1% DIFF spread

  • The fourth block of 12 WRs 10.4 to 9.3 FP/G. Between 60% and 47.7% of the top value (Hopkins). 12.3% DIFF spread

I do note the spread DIFFs and suggest within the first 12 WRs each pick is down by 2% of value while in the next block it is at 1% DIFFs. This model suggests the risk is higher in the top group. An interesting aspect of this method. 

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Wide Receivers Position Type Sorted

Takeaways

  • Note we have predicted 4 team WR-1s at below 7.8 FP/G. In fact, Trey Quinn WR-1 WAS is predicted to do nothing!

  • Here we see the issue of extremes. WAS WRs are the most ADP disrespected team and group. Someone will catch passes and score! I suspect sleepers here vs price.

  • BAL, WAS, MIA and BUF. These are the bottom of the WR-1 players. These teams need extra research and if you are good, you can collect bargains.

  • WAS BAL and JAC have the lowest WR-2 types

  • Fuller HOU is the weakest WR-2 by COM 56%. J Washington and G Allison PIT and GB are also weaker WR-2 by 55.4/49% COM scores. 

  • Note that Diggs, Woods, Watkins, Fitzgerald, Tate, Sanders, Stills and Foster are all strong WR-2 greater than 90% COM metrics.

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The WRs and TEs Landscape of the Entire Player’s FP/G as predicted by ADPs

This figure defines the 2019 Draft of FP/G by positions. I present each position along with the MAX (Highest), Median (50% Level) and MIN (Lowest) FP/G.


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Tight Ends

The MAX RB starts at 15.7 and goes to the 50% level at 1 FP/G. That range should contain the major players for 2019.  Note the extremes in an extreme position this year.


Tight Ends Sorted High to Low with Position Type and Com Score.

For the first 12 TEs (15.7 to 9.2 FP/G.), we have 100% to 58.5% with a DIFF spread of 41.5%. That is a 3.5% drop per pick down. This is a tough landscape with low FP/G expected. Seems to suggest pick early and wait late to gamble. A bar-bell approach for TE drafting.

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Tight Ends Position Type Sorted

Note the poor TE plays predicted in CAR/ARI/BAL/BUF/CIN/DAL/HOU/JAC/LAR/LAR/MIA/NE/OAK/SEA/WAS. 

No way this is right but the nature of the mathematical model is certainly fuzzy in here. I would suggest my confidence is only strong for the top 10 or so. If I need a TE2 then I need to dig into TE research to find the late TE picks! 

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  • These data can set a line in the sand for your deeper decisions.

  • If you can pick out the winners in the WRBC battles then you should profit.

  • In best-ball leagues, these data can allow you to scoop all the players for control of a Team’s receiving points. Hard to do in LAR but you can corner the market within the weaker teams (WAS/MIA etc)


Fun Research in my textbook!

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook: June 2019 Edition [Print Replica] Kindle Edition

Click Link Below

Textbook on Kindle


Please Read

Part 1 ADP to FP/G QBs and RBs


My current PPR rankings

ppr-power-rankings-part-1/

ppr-power-rankings-part-2/


 Defense Against the Positions Part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5

DAPs Part 1 Link

DAPs Part 2 Link

Analysis of DAPs Part 3

Best and Worst Players Part 4

DAP Analysis 2019 Playoffs and Bye Week


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