College Football DFS Week 11 Targets Day Slate

If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the afternoon DK contest:
Game Line Total
[email protected]OU 3:30PM ET 17.5 76.5
[email protected]UCF 12:00PM ET 25.5 63
[email protected]BAMA 3:30PM ET 25 52
OSU@MSU 12:00PM ET 3.5 54
[email protected]WVU 12:00PM ET 13.5 56
WSU@COL 3:30PM ET 6 61
[email protected]PSU 12:00PM ET 8 54
[email protected]ISU 3:30PM ET 14.5 51.5
[email protected]TA&M 12:00PM ET 12 67
[email protected]IOWA 3:30PM ET 10 47.5
[email protected]UF 12:00PM ET 7 54

For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like stacking the Oklahoma game. What I will do is point out that rostering stud quarterback Kyler Murray with Trey Sermon, that will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,300. This is the price range I will focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, or hitting big on mid range plays. Which brings me to my first selection…

Jalen Reagor | WR | TCU $6,300

When KaVontae Turpin was in, Reagor still was getting almost 30% of the team’s target share per NCAAsavant.com. In the first game without Turpin (dismissed from the team), Reagor careered it with an 8-177-1 line.

In a game that turned into a defensive struggle, he still managed to keep his monster sophomore season, going last week, with a 3-92-1 line. Low scoring affairs are bound to change Saturday, as the Horned Frogs go on the road to face Dana Holgorsen’s, “our defense is our offense” Mountaineer philosophy. An approach that just yielded 354 passing yards (his season high), to Texas quarterback, Sam Ehlinger.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

Considering Alan Bowman and Charlie Brewer had to exit their games with injuries against West Virginia, you could argue Michael Collins is the third most competent quarterback they will have faced (seriously look at their schedule) this season. Yikes! I think Reagor is the best wideout under 7k to compete with the chalk for top receiver on the board. I also like Taye Barber ($3,400) as the sneaky breakout candidate in the TCU passing game.

Cody White | WR | MSU $4,200

Flying a bit under the DK pricing radar, White returned last week after missing several games with broken hand, snagging a modest 2 catches for 20 yards, in an ugly win over Maryland. The good news? They get a Buckeye defense this week, that has routinely been sexed up by opposing wideouts, having allowed at least one 100 yard receiver in their last five outings.

Cody White (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com)

Even when Felton Davis was healthy, White was the best all around receiver for MSU. Now, with Davis out for the year, quarterback Brian Lewerke will likely be staring in White’s direction a ton Saturday. As a super low-cost option, I think Jalen Nailor ($3,000) is the most talented of the rest of the MSU receiving corp.

Elijah Moore | WR | Ole Miss $4,800

Speaking of young talent, I guess we found out who the beneficiary will be with D.K. Metcalf being out for the year. Stepping in after Braylon Sanders ($4,200) was forced out with an injury, the true freshman erupted with an 11-129 line, in the loss last week to South Carolina.

Although he was not expected to have much of a role in his first year on campus, due to the depth and experience of his position, Sanders, a four star recruit, was considered a crown jewel of the Ole Miss position player 2018 class. Now, with the combination of injuries, and his breakout performance, Moore should definitely be involved in the high-powered Runnin Rebel passing game moving forward.

Even if Sanders suits up, I don’t think it will negate Moore’s role. He is a smaller, shiftier type guy, who was operating almost exclusively out of the slot. Unlike Sanders, who primarily lines up on the outside, opposite, A.J. Brown. It’s a tougher test on the road at College Station this week, but the way Ole Miss slings it around Moore should be safe for a 5-6 catch 60-70 yard day, with high upside potential.

Chuba Hubbard | RB | Oklahoma St. $3,900

An under the radar development came last week with this redshirt freshman sustaining his involvement for a second game in a row, gaining 69 yards on 11 touches. Justice Hill remains the main man in Cowboy backfield, but the 21 touches over the last two weeks for Hubbard–both in close contests–indicate the coaches feel that the Canadian speedster has earned an opportunity.

In a game that should see tons of yards and scoring from both sides, 10-12 touches could make Hubbard this week’s Da’Leon Ward of the day slate. Gigantic Cowboy tight end Jelani Woods ($3,000) is also a nice flyer here as a red zone target.

Other Considerations

Colorado Receivers

This game, being a late afternoon one, makes this injury situation very shitty to speculate on, but it will likely have huge impact on the day slate contest. NFL talent, Laviska Shenault Jr. ($8,700), is considered day-to-day still nursing a bum toe. The Buffs second receiver, sophomore K.D. Nixon, got banged up in last week’s game against Arizona with a hip injury.

In their absence, Juwann Winfree ($5,100), emerged with an 8-101 line, and has started to receive an opportunity over the last two weeks. If Shenault Jr. is unable to go for a fourth consecutive game, Winfree is a candidate to strongly outperform his price, in one of the higher scoring projected games on the board.

Wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. #2 of the Colorado Buffaloes
(Aug. 30, 2018 – Source: Joe Mahoney/Getty Images North America)

If Shenault Jr. and Nixon are out, Winfree would be an auto-play in my mind. Kabion Ento ($3,000), would be a sensible dart throw as well. While taking advantage of injury situations is a perfectly logical fantasy approach, other strategies aren’t always so clear.

Iowa Offense

Sometimes, life doesn’t make sense. The same could be said for football. In particular, Iowa being 10 point favorites against anybody in the Small Ten not named Illinois, or Rutgers. With Northwestern playing for a trip to go to the conference title game, and a decent showing against the Irish last weekend, I would have thought this line would fall somewhere around four to a touchdown, at the most. Which tells me, something is up here.

No rational person can offer one football reason to suggest the Hawkeyes are 10 points better than what’s been a very tough, Fitzgerald-esque Northwestern outfit. For this unreasonable reason, I’m listening to what the books are telling me, and will assume there is some wacky Iowa at home November trend that is going to make Kinnick Stadium one giant buzz saw Saturday. Nate Stanley ($6,100), and the rest of the Iowa offense are my sneaky stack of the week.

Me when Iowa is inexplicably up 35-10 Saturday…

Assuming Vegas does have this one pegged just right, there could be plenty of positive game script for running the ball in the second half. For their three-headed monster at running back, Mekhi Sargent ($4,300) would be my top choice, but all three should have the opportunity to return value at their low prices.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

Zach Abey | QB | Navy $4,900

I have spent an inordinate amount of time dissecting the Navy offense this season. Here’s what I’ve come up with so far: it’s not good. However, this could be a spot where Abey could have some decent production against, what will likely be, a very disinterested UCF defense.

In their matchup with UCF last season, Abey managed a 25-126-1 line on the ground, and added a score through the air. If he remains the starter this week (they’ve been going back and forth all season), he’s essentially a super high floor 5k running back, with potential for mixing in some bonus points through the air.

Additionally, it’s not like being down 20-3 at the half will prompt Navy to break out the spread passing attack. So, at least you know Abey’s rushing attempts are game script proof in Navy’s wishbone “attack” offense.

If Abey is too cute for you, TC ($7,700) and Mond ($7,400) are great price/matchup combinations.

Chalk I can’t Live Without

Trayveon Williams | RB | Texas A&M $7,500

In related news, did someone say cowbell running back that is also a great receiving threat against the Ole Miss defense? Yep! Done and done.

After that, David Montgomery ($7,600) would be my top choice at tailback, followed by Trey Sermon ($7,400) and James Williams ($6,900).

Good luck for the Week 11 afternoon slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated.

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