College Football DFS Week 11 Targets Night Slate

Is the College Football DFS Week 11 afternoon contest on DraftKings not enough for you before NFL Sunday? Outstanding! It isn’t enough for me either, which is why, in addition to my targets for the early slate, I will be posting my approach for the night contest each week here starting with Week 4.

My goal every week is to identify three to four low cost, or reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups. This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the night DK contest:
Game Line Total
TEMP@UH 7:00PM ET 5 69.5
UT@TTU 7:30PM ET 1.5 62
CLEM@BC 8:00PM ET 20 57
FSU@ND 7:30PM ET 16.5 53
LSU@ARK 7:30PM ET 13.5 47.5
MIA@GT 7:00PM ET 3 55
AUB@UGA 7:00PM ET 14 52.5

For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Dexter Williams and D’Eriq King. What I will do is point out that rostering both in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $4,967. This is the price range I will try to focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, or hitting big on mid level plays. Speaking of DK price fuck ups…

Ventell Bryant | WR | Temple $4,900

Remember when you were making out with your first girlfriend, and hands started moving around, heavy breathing, etc… And, just maybe you got a little too handsy for her at that point. We may not have known at the time, but we were all learning a very valuable life lesson–take what the defense gives you! This, is one of those times.

Ventell Bryant (Sept. 28, 2018 – Source: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America)

Bryant is the top Owl receiver in the highest projected scoring game of the night. His name should probably be book ended by guys like T.J. Vasher ($6,200) and Collin Johnson ($6,600). The DK pricing model is your first awkward make out session. All you have to do is take it. Only difference with Bryant is, this session, has the potential to round third base for an inside the park home run.

Tommy Sweeney | TE | Boston College $3,500

Like most of you, I’ve watched a lot of college football the past couple months. Through my powers of uncanny analysis, I’ve deduced that Clemson is good. Boston College? Eh. As much as they will want to hand the ball to A.J. Dillon 50 times, being 20 point dogs suggests some probable game flow will have BC quarterback Anthony Brown dropping back to pass a lot Saturday night.

Their 6’5″, 260 pound, senior tight end’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but he is the team leader in receptions for the season. Regardless of game script potentially bumping up his ceiling, I like his price/floor combo as much as anyone in this range for the night board.

As a slightly pricier play, Arkansas tight end Cheyenne O’Grady ($4,300) has been steadily productive as well.

Da’Leon Ward | RB | Texas Tech $5,400

As predicted, Ward was the Tech running back that took a giant shit all over my Ta’Zhawn Henry ($4,900) lineups last Saturday night. The sophomore tailback racked up 13 touches (five catches), 127 yards, two scores, and operated almost exclusively as the feature back in the second half.

This might be a situation to steer clear from altogether, but I’m a glutton for punishment. And, I want at least one Tech running back in a game that should see another zillion points and yards like last Saturday night’s shootout in Lubbock.

Tre Watson #5 of the Texas Longhorns (Oct. 12, 2018 – Source: Getty Images North America)

Because I’m sure you’re dying to know… Yes, as the leader of the Keaontay Ingram ($6,200) Truthers, I was a bit rattled to see Tre Watson ($5,500) outperforming him last week.

Others Considerations

Clemson Running Backs

One of my biggest oversights for last week’s day slate was ignoring the game flow aspects from a 40 point spread. It’s cut in half to around 20 points this week, but clearly Clemson has shown that they are capable of clowning anybody on their schedule.

If I’m in dart throw mode in any week moving forward, Clemson backup running backs, Tavien Feaster ($4,200) and Lyn-J Dixon ($4,400), make as much sense as anyone in their price range. Also, I’ll continue to die my slow death on the “Justyn Ross will have an 150 yard, two touchdown performance this season” hill.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

Tobias Oliver | QB | Georgia Tech $7,300

In a fairly straight forward quarterback board, Oliver is as low as I’m willing to go. But, if he is announced as the starter, that might be enough for me to fade all the top priced guys in favor of the redshirt freshman’s upside.

Why so serious coach?… (Source: Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America)

In limited action, Oliver has managed to put up monster games the last two weeks, resulting in DK points of 42.5 (did not even complete a pass), and 34.2. Both of which he missed multiple offensive series, remaining backup to TaQuon Marshall. With full QB1 opportunity, it would not surprise me at all if Oliver topped the DK charts among all positions Saturday night.

Assuming head coach Paul Johnson gives Oliver the nod, Jordan Mason ($5,000) and Jerry Howard’s ($4,500) ceilings receive a slight uptick as well. Oh, and while we’re here, as I discussed on the AOP betting pod with Mr. Kyle Robert, Georgia Tech laying the three at home…

Chalk I cant Live Without

Ryquell Armstead | RB | Temple $7,300

I love me some Travis Etienne ($9,100) and Dexter Williams ($8,900), as much as the next DFSer, but Armstead has the same guaranteed volume at a much lower price, in a projected shootout. In general, there seems to be enough relatively inexpensive fire power in the Texas/Texas Tech game to avoid paying above the low 7k range at any position.

Good luck for the Week 11 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated.

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