CFB DFS Week 4 Preview – Day and Night Slate

We’re just about one month into the CFB DFS season! I was very happy with last week’s suggestions of running back King Doerue and Calvin Jackson Jr. at wideout. Tight end Isaiah Likely salvaged his day with a touchdown catch, but was disappointing overall, even at his low price. Also, the mention of Will Shipley was definitely a value at the running back position as pretty much the only bright spot to the Clemson offense.

Shaky Quarterback Play

That brings me to the larger takeaway from last week: Is the quarterback play in the “elite” offenses good enough to make them worth their prices in DFS right now? Specifically, in the case of D.J. Uiagalelei the answer has to be no. As for Spencer Rattler, I would lean no with an “it depends on the matchup” caveat. In his two games against Power 5 schools this season, Rattler has thrown for an equal amount of touchdowns and interceptions (just two) while averaging a miniscule 7.1 yards per attempt. That’s almost three yards down from last year’s mark (9.6). Also, he’s fortunate that pick total just sits at two while he routinely continues to make ill advised throws into double coverage.

I don’t want to overreact to these two performances, but interceptions and poor decision making is nothing new with Rattler. And, these are in games where the Sooners have been huge favorites against mediocre at best competition. He gets a frisky West Virginia team Saturday night at home as another substantial 16 point favorite. I’ll need to see him put together a couple of high level performances against decent competition until I’m willing to pay his price which will likely remain high. Either way, this shaky quarterback play has both, Clemson and Oklahoma, removed from the top tier offenses until further notice. All Tiger and Sooner running backs’ and pass catchers’ ceilings should be viewed accordingly. Now, let’s move on to Week 4!

This Week

As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

HERE ARE THE VEGAS ODDS (FAVORITES IN BOLD) FOR THE 12 GAMES INCLUDED IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DK CONTEST:

Game InfoLineTotal
[email protected]TCU 12:00PM ET|9.5|64
UL@FSU 3:30PM ET|2.5|62.5
LSU@MSST 12:00PM ET|2|56
UGA@VAND 12:00PM ET|35.5|52.5
BSU@UTST 12:00PM ET|9.5|69.5
CLEM@NCST 3:30PM ET|10|47.5
[email protected]MICH 3:30PM ET|20|49.5
ISU@BAY 3:30PM ET|7|47.5
[email protected]UT 12:00PM ET|7.5|61
TA&M@ARK 3:30PM ET|5.5|47.5
MIZZ@BC 12:00PM ET|2|58.5
[email protected]WISC 12:00PM ET|6.5|46.5

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Malik Cunningham and Tanner Mordecai. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive QB duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,367. My objective each week will be to offer a reasonable path to affording the best players. Now that Clemson might stink offensively, let’s figure out which offenses have the goods en route to CFB DFS splendor this week!

Jalen Mitchell | RB | $5,100 Louisville

In one of the more fairly priced boards I’ve seen from DK in some time, this price is a bit of miss. Mitchell operates as the lead back in a high scoring offense with competent quarterback play against a bad Seminole defensive unit. In terms of a Vegas odds, the high scoring, close game script doesn’t get any better.

With a probable 15-20 touch volume and all those peripheral boxes checked, the floor is high for this freshman who doesn’t necessarily need a touchdown to return value at this bargain price. Anyone is his circumstances should have at least a grand added to that amount. We should take advantage while we can.

Speaking of undervalued running backs, DK did not get the memo on Will Shipley. After netting 23 of the 37 running back touches last week, it’s clear what Clemson’s intentions are with their stud 5-Star recruit–Shipley is the RB1 for the 2021 season. If you don’t believe me, ask the transfer portal. The best remedy for a work-in-progress at quarterback is a solid defense and reliable run game. Expect Shipley to be leaned on heavily moving forward, and this week being the last time we see the number five after his name.

Another sub 6k tailback in a great spot to be productive is Calvin Tyler Jr. for Utah State. Based on his role and Vegas projection, I would expect him to be priced roughly 1k higher.

#11 Walley in action against NC State

Jaden Walley | WR | $4,800 Mississippi State

Whether it’s 1A, WR2 or 2A, there is plenty enough passing to go around in Mike Leach’s offense to be productive in any one of those roles. Walley has picked up right where he left off from a massively productive freshman season, scoring in each of the Bulldogs first three games in 2021 while catching at least four passes in every contest.

With quarterback Will Rogers averaging 361 yards and 54 pass attempts over the first three games, receivers Makai Polk, Malik Heath, Walley, and Austin Williams all have the upside to pop off in any given week. For that reason, all of them should be a minimum of 5k or more. Specifically with Walley, probably a minimum of 6k which makes him a great price/floor/ceiling combo on this CFB DFS board.

Badger Offense

If there was ever a time to invest in Wisconsin, this might be the week. Especially, in tight end Jake Ferguson ($4,500) and wideout Danny Davis ($4,900). Notre Dame’s defense has looked vulnerable thus far in the 2021 season against very mediocre opponents. Certainly, no one is accusing Badger quarterback Graham Mertz of being John Elway, but when the ball goes in the air he looks almost exclusively in Ferguson and Davis’s direction. Of his 36 completions in two games, 23 (64%) have gone to that tandem. With that type of role, I think both have a 5-6 catch, 60ish yard floor with decent touchdown upside in a favorable matchup. In that same range, ditto for SMU’s Reggie Roberson Jr. in game that should have tons of scoring.

CFB DFS Day/Night Preview Podcast

For a full preview, check out my podcast below where I provide my thoughts on EVERY GAME in the slate for the afternoon AND NIGHT contest. It is also available on most major podcast platforms. Don’t forget to download, subscribe, rate, and review. Your support and feedback is greatly appreciated!

Fading Quarterback Chalk

I am strongly considering paying down for whoever starts at quarterback for Utah State Saturday. Logan Bonner left last week’s game against Air Force with an injury in the second half. Backup Andrew Peasley came in and lit the Falcons up for 195 yards on 15 pass attempts with three scores in a wild comeback win. He also added 29 yards rushing on five totes. There is no indication yet as to who will be under center this week. But, either way this game is the highest projected scoring game of the slate with both offenses scheduled to get into the 30s. Getting just 15-20 DK points from a sub 6k quarterback is an immense value from a position that normally soaks up the most of your CFB DFS budget. Especially in a slate that doesn’t include the Matt Corrals and Bryce Youngs of the world, this could turn out to be a very savvy play Saturday afternoon.

Star LSU receiver #1 Kayshon Boutte

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

Normally, I don’t consider myself an ass man. But, considering all the value I’ve identified at running back, gimmie all that Boutte!

Good luck in Week 4! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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