College Football DFS Week 10 Targets Night Slate

Is the College Football DFS Week 10 afternoon contest on DraftKings not enough for you before NFL Sunday? Outstanding! It isn’t enough for me either, which is why, in addition to my targets for the early slate, I will be posting my approach for the night contest each week here starting with Week 4.

My goal every week is to identify three to four low cost, or reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups. This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the night DK contest:
Game Line  Total
UH@SMU 7:00PM ET 14 71
OU@TTU 8:00PM ET 13.5 77.5
LT@MSST 7:30PM ET 23.5 48.5
BAMA@LSU 8:00PM ET 14.5 54
UCLA@ORE 7:30PM ET 10 62.5
ND@NW 7:15PM ET 9.5 53.5
DUKE@MIA 7:00PM ET 9.5 50.5

 

For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Kyler Murray and D’Eriq King. What I will do is point out that rostering both chalky quarterbacks in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $4,667. This is the price range I will try to focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, or hitting big on mid level plays, which brings us to my first selection…

Isaiah Bowser | RB | Northwestern $5,300

Outside of Dexter Williams ($8,500) and MY Joshua Kelley ($7,000), I am not loving what I am seeing from the running backs at the top for the night slate. Enter Wildcats 16th string running back Isaiah Bowser!

Earlier this season, Northwestern’s best skill position player, running back Jeremy Larkin, received the devastating diagnosis of cervical stenosis, forcing him to retire from football. Since then, the Wildcat running back position has been all over the place, as The Daily Northwestern’s Jonah Dylan pointed out this week:

After spending a few weeks atop the depth chart, Solomon Vault — who missed last week’s game with an injury — did not receive a carry. John Moten was inactive, while freshman Drake Anderson did not see the field. And for now, at least, NU’s current and future plans at the position seem to center around the freshman from Sidney, Ohio, who ran through Wisconsin defenders all day.

Is this a good matchup? No. Do I think Bowser is the next Darnell Autry? Probably not. But, the bottom line is Northwestern will run the shit out of the ball in this game, hoping to ugly it up to be in the game long enough, in order to pull off the upset. The Vegas odds suggest there’s a fair chance to do just that. Bowser himself seemed to be optimistic with his presser quote, “It might as well be us to beat them”, earlier this week.

There’s certainly a game script risk, but the two games that forced Northwestern to play catch up this season did not hurt running back production. In Weeks 2 and 3, quarterback Clayton Thorson wasn’t shy in dumping it off out of the backfield to–the then healthy–Larkin, who recorded receiving lines of 7-55, and 8-52 when trying to mount the comeback in both cases.

With some uncertain rotations, and tougher matchups among the higher priced guys, I’ll likely be looking Bowser’s way along with my next suggestion…

Ta’Zhawn Henry | RB | Texas Tech $4,900

The Red Raider backfield has been the bane to my DFS existence all season. However, the ultra talented freshman might be emerging with the lion share in this committee.

When quarterback Alan Bowman went down in Week 5 with an injury, a phenomenal start to Texas Tech’s season was throw into flux. For the rest of that game and the following week, offensive plans needed to be tailored more towards backup quarterback Jett Duffey’s dual threat style, rendering running back production shoddy at best.

(Henry Sept. 7, 2018 – Source: Getty Images North America)

Bowman has started the last two games. If one thing has been clear in those contests, it’s that Henry will be involved early, likely getting the first crack to win Kliff Kingsbury’s hot hand contest. If Henry makes a big play early in the 7-on-7 drill this game should be, coach Jacob Palmer might just forego his serial running back dating ways, making Henry his “Hannah Banana” of the night, where they will likely need all the scoring they can produce.

Either way, in terms of workload, his 12-15 touch floor should be the safest among the rotation. That’s plenty enough for him to return value at his modest price. And, based on information I obtained stalking his twitter feed, I think him and the Red Raiders give the Sooners all they can handle under the lights in Lubbock Saturday night.

Adrian Hardy | WRs | Louisiana Tech $5,000

Louisiana Tech may have long odds to win the battle of the Bulldogs Saturday night, but do not be surprised if they give Mississippi St. a run for their money. Definitely, do not overlook their offense either.

The veteran group returned eight starters, including quarterback J’Mar Smith ($5,100), who has been productive all season in Conference USA play. But, that’s just because they’re going up against shitty teams week to week, and couldn’t possibly match that against a vaunted SEC defense like this one, right?

Wrong my friend. Smith’s most fantasy productive day came when he brought the Bulldogs back against LSU. Lousiana Tech overcame huge deficit to get within three points early in the fourth quarter. When they needed big plays, it was the redshirt sophomore Hardy that made them, finishing that game with a 10-181-2 line.

(Hardy Sept. 21, 2018 – Source: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images North America)

Outside of the Power Five conferences, Louisiana Tech has been one the better programs over the past few seasons. I think they haven’t forgotten about their rough start at LSU earlier this season. It will give them a winning mind-set coming into this game. Add in the fact that MSU is coming off a big win last week, and is traveling to Alabama next week, this makes for quite the letdown recipe game.

After putting Hardy in your lineup, don’t be scurd to hit La Tech and the points with some units. Also, keep an eye on wideout Rhashid’s Bonnette’s ($4,300) playing status. If he is not able to go, George Scott ($3,000) is a nice dart throw as a deep ball threat this week.

Others Considerations

Alabama Offense

You know how we’ve been wanting to stack Tua with a couple of receivers, but prices and game flow concerns scare us off? Or, see what the running back situation really looks like when they aren’t up by 70 in the second quarter? This appears to be the best chance. Especially considering Tua’s price being so low, a Bama stack with Jerry Jeudy ($6,900), Irv Smith Jr. ($4,500), and Damien Harris ($5,700) could easily end up being the play for the night slate.

(Jeudy #4 Source: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images North America

Dart Throws

Receivers and tight ends from the Oklahoma/Tech game seem to be the most feasible long shot plays. They are unlikely to come away with zero points. They also provide reasonable ceilings. Houston tight end Romello Brooker ($3,700) will also be involved enough, in a highly productive offense to be a nice fit here as well.

Going back to the Texas Tech backfield, I’d go with Da’Leon Ward ($3,900) as the guy most likely to ruin all my Henry lineups.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

Ben Hicks | QB | SMU $7,100

If I was unable to persuade you with my J’Mar Smith Louisiana Tech tirade, Hicks makes the most sense if I’m pivoting the thoroughbreds at quarterback. He’s developed a strong rapport with two NFL caliber talents in wideouts James Proche ($7,400), and Reggie Roberson Jr. ($6,500).

They should all be very busy trying to keep pace with Houston’s “out score you” approach, that has them ranked second in the country putting up over 49 points per game, and 88th in points allowed giving up 30 per game.

Chalk I cant Live Without

D’Eriq King | QB | Houston $11,200

Without continuing the Texas Tech slurp fest too much, I’ll just say Lubbock is going to be a snake pit Saturday night. I think there is a reasonably slight chance, an improved T-Tech defense could maybe possibly almost merely perhaps conceivably give Kyler Murray some trouble. With King against SMU, there is no chance.

Good luck for the Week 10 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated.

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