College Football DFS Week 9 Targets Night Slate

Is the College Football DFS Week 9 afternoon contest on DraftKings not enough for you before NFL Sunday? Outstanding! It isn’t enough for me either, which is why, in addition to my targets for the early slate, I will be posting my approach for the night contest each week here starting with Week 4.

My goal every week is to identify three to four low cost, or reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups. This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the night DK contest:
Game Line Total
BSU@AF 7:00PM ET 9.5 58
WSU@STAN 7:00PM ET 3 53.5
ND@NAVY 8:00PM ET 24 54.5
NCST@SYR 7:00PM ET 2 65.5
UT@OKST 8:00PM ET 3.5 62
TA&M@MSST 7:00PM ET 2 44
TENN@SCAR 7:30PM ET 8 54

 

For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Brett Rypien and Gardner Minshew II. What I will do is point out that rostering both chalky quarterbacks in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,117. This is the price range I will try to focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing! However, that’s beginning to change.

CJ Williams | Slot Back | Navy $3,000

At this point into the season, a majority of the pricing is starting to even out accordingly, making value a little more difficult to discern. Enter mega dart throws like Williams. Before missing the last two games due to injury, the sophomore was beginning to routinely break big plays in Navy’s triple option attack as a starter.

Albeit, against lesser opponents than the Notre Dame team they will be facing in San Diego Saturday night, but the Midshipmen always seem to relish their annual battle against the Irish. Take a look at this game the past five years:

Year Winner Score Navy Rush Yds
2017 ND 24-17 277
2016 Navy 28-27 320
2015 ND 41-24 318
2014 ND 49-39 336
2013 ND 38-34 331

Some of those Navy teams were a bit more equipped than this one, but it’s pretty clear, they love nothing more than to scare the begeezus out of one of the more exhausting fan bases in the galaxy, on a national stage each year. Especially this season, when the Irish have so much on the line.

To help them in their mission, Williams will be a full go in his return as the slot back as a running, and receiving threat. He should be in line for a minimum six to eight touches. A broken tackle, or making a defender miss in space, is all he needs to break a big play, and return value.

Devin C. Butler | WR | Syracuse $3,300

After working his way into a starting role last year as sophomore, 2018 could be a lost season for the junior wideout, where many expected Butler to be in the mix as a top receiver in the Orange passing game. A few weeks back against Clemson, there were signs of ascension with five catches for 45 yards, and a team leading eight targets.

However, a one game suspension the following week, and a doughnut hole on the stat sheet in Week 8 against North Carolina, makes me more uncomfortable than Jason Witten in the MNF broadcast booth. Speaking of…

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

If there was ever an opportunity for Butler to turn his season around, the highest projected scoring game of the night might just be the one. In this matchup last season, Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey threw for 385 yards on the same Wolfpack secondary that was torched through the air by Clemson last week.

(Source: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images North America)

No, Cuse is not on Clemson’s level. But, last week’s showing illustrates how N.C. State can be exposed when faced with competent quarterback play. Outside of Trevor Lawrence, either Syracuse quarterback (more on this later) will be the best they’ve faced this season, and it might not be close.

Similar to the Williams play, this is more of a long shot GPP play, so I understandably may end up on Butler Island all by myself Saturday night. If the risk is too much for you to bear, Taj Harris ($4,200), and Nykeim Johnson ($4,700) have the more stable floors in the Orange receiving corp.

Ricky Person Jr. | RB | N.C. State $4,800

Sticking with the same expected shootout, this freshman running back should have plenty of touches to work with. After nursing through some early season injuries, Person Jr. has come on strong the last few weeks. Check out this quote from ACCSports.com’s Brian Geisinger,

Over the last two games, 10 of Person’s 31 carries (32.2 percent) have gone for 10+ yards. He also now has two carries of 20+ yards, including a career-long run of 38 yards.

For the season, Person has 11 carries that have gone for a first down — most of which (eight) have come on first down.

That was from three weeks ago after the North Carolina native’s first real college action, before heading into their Week 7 bye. I think we can all agree, there is nothing to take away from last week’s 41-7 drubbing at the hands of Clemson.

(Source: Grant Halverson/Getty Images North America)

What we can look at is the much more juicy matchup with Syracuse this week, who has been pummeled on the ground in their last two games by Pitt (265 rushing yards), and North Carolina (179 rushing yards), who aren’t exactly the 1997 Nebraska Cornhuskers. I like Person Jr. to take advantage, finding the end zone for his first collegiate touchdown in the same game that saw the Wolfpack running game go for 256 yards, and three scores last year.

Others to Consider

Oklahoma St. Receivers

This is becoming my broken record Justyn Ross call from the day slate. Maybe, because of a really bad performance against Kansas St. in their last game, and being off last week, they are flying under the DK radar. Regardless, Landon Wolf ($5,000), Tyron Johnson ($5,200), and especially Tylan Wallace ($5,500) are all great values at wideout Saturday night, in a game that should see plenty of scoring from both sides.

Additionally, it would be irresponsible of me not to mention Texas running back Keaontay Ingram ($6,300) in this game as well. The Cowboy run defense has been about as bad as the movie Hunter Killer looks. Ingram is in the perfect spot to be the highest peforming running back for the night slate, having the monster game everyone has been waiting for. He won’t be under 7k next time you see him.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

Nick Fitzgerald | QB | Mississippi St. $7,200

The quarterback spot doesn’t seem all that chalky without premiere names like Will Grier, or Tua Tagovailoa this week. I would not be surprised at all to see Taylor Cornelius ($8,100), or Sam Ehlinger ($8,300) to outscore Brett Rypien ($10,300), or Gardner Minshew II ($9,000).

Unless you want to get really cute with one of the service academy quarterbacks, my pick on the lower end price range would be Fitzgerald. The matchup isn’t great, but his rushing ability has proven to give him suitable floors against tougher defenses. Also, he has at least one example to demonstrate the upside is there, with a 36.3 DK night against Auburn a few weeks ago.

Other note: Play the Syracuse quarterbacks at your own risk. They are unofficially adopting the eternally annoying two quarterback system. They might play one, or both. Allegedly. If I had to guess, my gut feeling is head coach Dino Babers will role with Tommy DeVito ($7,700) to start. Kind of like how Brian Kelly did with Ian Book–if DeVito has the offense humming–Eric Dungey’s playing time…

Chalk I can’t Live Without

Kelvin Harmon | WR | N.C. State $7,800

The junior wideout is a legit NFL first round talent. Depending on where you look, his quarterback Ryan Finley ($8,500) is, as well. Not sure I’m buying the latter. Either way, Harmon should bounce back strong after the humbling loss to Clemson. If I’m paying up, him and running back Dexter Williams ($7,600) are the route I’m taking in a somewhat chalk-less night board.

Good luck for the Week 9 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated.

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