If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the afternoon DK contest:
|[email protected]OSU 12:00PM ET||19||72|
|[email protected]UT 3:30PM ET||2||58|
|[email protected] 12:00PM ET||Pk||66|
|OKST@BAY 12:00PM ET||8||68|
|SYR@WAKE 12:00PM ET||4.5||75|
|UTAH@ASU 4:00PM ET||7||56|
|[email protected]CLEM 12:00PM ET||38.5||59.5|
|GT@UNC 12:15PM ET||4.5||61.5|
|[email protected]MICH 3:45PM ET||10||52.5|
|UGA@UK 3:30PM ET||9.5||44|
|[email protected]UF 4:00PM ET||6||58|
For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Dwayne Haskins and Will Grier. What I will do is point out that rostering both stud quarterbacks in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,183. This is the price range I will focus on each week.
Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!
However, player and team familiarity is starting to round into shape as the season approaches the stretch run. Gaining an edge requires taking more chances, which brings us to my first selection.
Hassan Hall | RB | Louisville $3,600
Louisville is bad. But, DFS doesn’t discriminate against empty yards, and garbage time touchdowns. That is why I like Hall as a dirt cheap play, in a game where they will likely be playing a ton of catch up in the second half.
The freshman has seen his role steadily increase the past few weeks as it’s become clear, this season is about developing talent for the future. Also, his eight catches for 64 yards over the last three games, compared to time share mate’s Trey Smith’s five for 18, clearly show Hall is the preferred option when the Cardinals are in pass mode, which should be a lot Saturday as almost 40 point dogs to Clemson. His 10-15 touch workload should provide a safe floor, with reasonable upside at a great price.
Tarik Black | WR | Michigan $4,900
The highly touted sophomore wideout’s first two seasons in Ann Arbor have been derailed by injuries to both of his feet. He was able to return to the field in a limited capacity two weeks ago in their win over Michigan St., but did not record a catch. Once healthy, Black could potentially be the game changer that the Michigan tecmo bowl play book desperately needs.
With UofM entering the meat and potatoes portion of their schedule in playoff contention, they’ll want a boost to an offense that has pretty much been handing the ball to Karan Higdon 25-30 times, and throwing a deep ball to Donovan Peoples-Jones. Black has the ability to add a dimension to the passing game that they’ll need, if they want to make any noise beyond the Small Ten regular season.
Without any threats besides DPJ, I am expecting that they will immediately involve him heavily when he is ready. Make sure to check his status leading up to the game, but I expect he’ll have a full workload any week now.
Rico Dowdle | RB | South Carolina $5,700
South Carolina running backs, meet your new best friend, the Ole Miss defense! They have been graciously hosting other backfields, while awaiting your arrival over the their last three SEC games:
Dowdle is the South Carolina runner that has proven his upside capability this season. With the chalkier guys like Benny Snell ($7,300) and Eno Benjamin ($7,900) in potentially tougher, lower scoring matchups, targeting the Ole Miss defense at a lower price sounds like a fine plan to me. I don’t always recommend Gamecock running backs, but when I do, it’s against Running Rebels…
North Carolina Offense
Before we move on, I feel it’s my duty to mention a childhood hero of mine also named Rico…
Anyhoo, if there was ever a week to buy low on the Tar Heel offense, it’s this one. In their two conference games against softer (Pitt and Syracuse) defenses, they’ve proven to be capable of moving the ball, gaining nearly 500 yards of offense in each of those matchups.
Number one wideout Anthony Ratliff-Williams ($4,600) is a guy who proved last season he’s capable of high ceilings, having two games where he netted five catches, 120 yards plus, and a score. He has yet to break the 100 yard barrier in a game this season, but I think that is likely to change this week against an average Yellow Jacket secondary.
Even more intriguing might be breakout sophomore Dazz Newsome ($4,000). The 5’11” speedster has been coming on strong as quarterback Nathan Elliot’s top option out of the slot, and also serves as the team’s kick returner.
And for whatever reason, I love playing guys that are the team’s “gadget” players who always have three to four designed plays to get them the ball. Newsome is UNC’s guy for that.
Along with the receivers, Antonio Williams ($4,000) is the running back that has shown he has the upside for big games in the right circumstances. After four consecutive losses, I think that is exactly what we have here with UNC at home. I like them to play up, get the win, and help DFSers as the sneakiest stack on the board.
Ohio St. Running Backs
After bottoming out two weeks ago at Purdue, the Buckeyes inability to run, and stop it, is all the talk in Columbus. In similar circumstances coming off an embarrassing road loss to Iowa last season, Urban unleashed the ground game the following week smothering Michigan St. 48-3 at home, with running backs J.K. Dobbins ($6,300), and Mike Weber ($5,100) combining for 286 yards and two scores.
Now, is this more of a pass first OSU team, that will always align play calling more with Dwayne Haskin’s skill set? Yes. But, I think it’s reasonable to speculate that Buckeye coaches took the extra week of preparation to figure out how to get the ground game going, with all the talent they have in the backfield. Besides, nothing says “get right week” like coming home off a bye against a Nebraska defense that has been beat up all season when facing quality opponents.
Charlie Brewer | QB | Baylor $6,800
This is an injury situation to monitor for Week 10. Brewer had taken over the as the full-time starter earlier in the season, and had the offense putting together some solid performances. He was knocked out of last week’s Thursday night game against West Virginia with a concussion, in the second quarter.
They have a great bounce back match up at home against Oklahoma St. if Brewer is able to play. If not, I would be weary of rostering Jalen Hurd ($7,000), or anyone in the Baylor offense for that matter.
Fading the Chalk at Quarterback
Nathan Elliot | QB | North Carolina $6,000
See reasoning above! Or take it from Petey Pablo.
Chalk I can’t Live Without
Greg Dortch | WR | Wake Forest $7,900
There isn’t much of a case to go against any of the top wideouts for the day slate, but I’ll try. With A.J. Brown ($8,800) in a slightly tougher matchup, and Tylan Wallace ($8,100) already having his blow up game last week, Dortch seems like the safest investment at the top to keep it going against a secondary that Kelvin Harmon traumatized last Saturday night.
I also think Grier and David Sills ($7,800) continue doing their thing against a Texas pass defense that has been lit up against every competent quarterback they’ve faced. If I pay up at running back, Travis Etienne ($7,700) would be my choice over Snell, and Zack Moss.
Good luck for the Week 10 afternoon slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are greatly appreciated.