CFB DFS Week 15 Preview – Day Slate

Let some CFB DFS lineups enhance your pandemic existence! As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 12 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine |Total
BAMA@ARK 12:00PM ET|32.5|68
UNC@MIA 3:30PM ET|3|67.5
WAKE@UL 12:00PM ET1.5|63.5
UH@MEM 3:30PM ET|4.5|63
C-C@TROY 3:00PM ET|13.5|51.5
UGA@MIZZ 12:00PM ET|13|54.5
WISC@IOWA 3:30PM ET|1|42
RU@UMD 12:00PM ET|7.5|58
DUKE@FSU 4:00PM ET|5|57
MSU@PSU 3:30PM ET|15|46.5
NAVY@ARMY 3:00PM ET|7|38

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Mac Jones and DeVonta Smith. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,083. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before every game is canceled, let’s decide this week’s plan for CFB DFS domination!

Shameen Jones | WR | Rutgers $3,400

Before the Rutgers offense shit the bed in a 23-7 defeat, this lovely young man was staking his claim as the Scarlet Knights WR2 behind Bo Melton. In the prior two games leading up to Penn St., the Bronx native flashed some legit upside with a 7-127 line, and an 8-88-2 line against weaker defensive teams.

Speaking of terrible Small Ten defenses, the Terrapins allow 442 yards per game and 33 points per game to opposing offenses. Those numbers are good for 3rd and 5th worst in the conference, respectively. Against the mediocre to bad defenses like Maryland, here is a brief level summary of what Rutgers has proven to be capable of offensively:

  • Illinois – 422 total yards, 20 points
  • UofM – 486 total yards, 42 points
  • Purdue – 412 total yards, 37 points

Can you hear it? Is it playing in your head too? Yes! It’s one of the most catchy awful 90s tunes of all time…

And it will be blaring at my place this Saturday baby! Because this matchup/price/floor/ceiling combo meal make Jones my favorite building block on the board.

Lawrance Toafili | RB | Florida St. $3,500

Florida St. hasn’t played in nearly a month. In that time, they’ve had multiple opt outs including running back La’Damian Webb. That leaves Texas A&M transfer Jashaun Corbin and this 4-star true freshman to carry the workload. Head coach Mike Norvell has already commented on his intentions of giving Toafili more work, given the circumstances. Add to that the fact that the Duke “defense” ranks 2nd worst in the ACC allowing over 200 rushing yards per game, and this is spot I would strongly consider as a speculative play at running back. Think Mr. Tyree from last week.

Rising Ceilings

Due to a very CFB DFS friendly game projection and opt outs to a couple of key players, Wake Forest running back Christian Beal-Smith, and Louisville receiver Dez Fitzpatrick are in prime positions to outperform their prices this week. Wake’s lead tailback, Kenneth Walker III, and the Cardinal’s top receiver, Tutu Atwell, have opted out to focus on the NFL draft. These two fellas are the most logical options to benefit from a volume standpoint.

On the Demon Deacons side, Walker and Beal-Smith make up over 90% of the running back carries this season. I assume they will try to get others into the mix to spell Beal-Smith, but I still think he gets a slight uptick in volume toward the 25 touch range. Anyone with that workload in this matchup? Yes please! For context, I would play him over Zamir White, Larry Rountree III, Jake Funk, and Tyler Goodson, who all have higher prices.

Same goes for Fitzpatrick. He’s already proven this season that he is capable of blow up games with Atwell there. Considering the matchup and Tutu’s absence, I believe Dez has the upside to compete with any of the top players at his position not named DeVonta Smith this week.

CFB DFS Podcast

For my expanded thoughts on this slate, listen to my CFB DFS podcast below where I go through every game on the board. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Please share with anyone you think may be interested. Also, don’t forget to leave a review and subscribe. Enjoy!

Fading Quarterback Chalk

Remember what I said above about the Rutgers offense against shitty defenses this year? You guessed it. Noah Vedral is absolutely sliding into my LUs this week!

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

Going back to that sizzling Wake Forest/Louisville matchup, Cardinal quarterback Malik Cunningham has put up YUGE production in two of his last three contests. Since tailback Javian Hawkins opted out one month ago, Cunningham has basically been serving as the de facto RB1 in their RPO heavy system. Check out his game log for reference.

Outside of him, I generally think there is plenty of value at all positions on this board that I do not see a reason to pay up for Alabama, or most players north of 7k. See Javonte Williams for reference.

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 15 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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