After a two week hiatus, CFB DFS musings are back! As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 13 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|OSU@MSU 12:00PM ET|||23.5|||59.5|
|UF@TENN 3:30PM ET|||17|||62.5|
|[email protected]ND 2:30PM ET|||33.5|||51|
|UT@KSU 12:00PM ET|||7|||51|
|[email protected]ISU 3:30PM ET|||6.5|||49.5|
|[email protected]PUR 12:00PM ET|||2|||62.5|
|[email protected]UV 3:30PM ET|||4|||54.5|
|[email protected]NCST 4:00PM ET|||7|||60|
|TA&M@AUB 12:00PM ET|||6.5|||48|
|OKST@TCU 12:00PM ET|||1.5|||51.5|
|IOWA@IL 3:30PM ET|||13.5|||51|
|[email protected]UW 4:00PM ET|||11.5|||51|
|[email protected]WISC 3:30PM ET|||14|||45|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Justin Fields and Kyle Trask. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,067. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before every game is canceled, let’s decide this week’s plan for CFB DFS supremacy!
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Chris Tyree | RB | Notre Dame $3,200
Obviously this an attempt to identify the game flow hero of the week, but the price makes it a very tantalizing risk. The Irish are on schedule to blow the lowly Orange of Syracuse out of the water Saturday afternoon. If and when that happens, it will be time for Tyree and C’Bo Flemister to keep the clock moving with the run game.
All it takes is a few offensive series with Tyree involved to return value and potentially break off a big run to pay dirt. From watching a fair amount of ND this year and reviewing his game log, you already know he has shown he has the ability to do damage without needing a ton of volume. On the chance that this is a potential increased workload spot for him, that price makes him a strong consideration this week to be the king of the garbage time heroes.
Jeremy Ruckert | TE | Ohio State $3,500
The Buckeyes should also be on their way to scoring 4-5 offensive touchdowns, minimum. Three of this junior tight end’s nine catches on the season have been for scores. He also has recorded at least one catch in three of OSU’s four games so you know there is a more than likely chance he is bagel proof week to week. In this range, his floor/upside profile in an offense that is going to put up tons of points against everyone, makes him an ideal building block candidate to target Saturday.
CFB DFS Podcast
For my expanded thoughts on this slate, listen to my CFB DFS podcast below where I go through every game on the board. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Please share with anyone you think may be interested. Also, don’t forget to leave a review and subscribe. Enjoy!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Since Skylar Thompson has gone down with an injury, Kansas State quarterback play has been a struggle. The good news is that Texas is bringing their ultra shitty defense to Manhattan this week. The longhorns rank 4th worst in yards allowed per game, 3rd worst in scoring defense, and DFL against the pass in the BIG 12.
Whether it’s Will Howard or Nick Ast getting the nod, their prices are so friendly at this position that I will absolutely not hesitate on pulling the trigger here. Vegas has this game projected out in the 29-22ish range. That puts KSU on pace for roughly three scores. Somewhere in those 22 points, there has to be 15ish DK points from the quarterback position. Right?
If that is too dirty for you, I think both starting quarterbacks in the Purdue/Nebraska and NC State/Georgia-Tech games are the best pay down candidates from the big dogs on this board.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
I know Rondale Moore isn’t chalky based on his price (which is ridiculously stupid), but a lineup won’t be set without him. In fact, I think the upside on Purdue’s offense this week has me believing I don’t have to play Ohio State everywhere. Based on matchups and Vegas projections, I also would play Zander Horvath over Breece Hall, and possibly Kyren Williams because of some game flow concerns.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 14 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.