The CFB DFS shit show of a season is coming to an ugly bitter, virus ravaged end. However, this degenerate isn’t opting out! As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 9 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|MISS@LSU 3:30PM ET|||2.5|||75.5|
|[email protected]OSU 12:00PM ET|||20.5|||57.5|
|[email protected]WISC 4:00PM ET|||12.5|||47.5|
|CLEM@ND 4:00PM ET|||10.5|||60|
|OU@ISU 12:00PM ET|||5.5|||58|
|BSU@SJSU 4:15PM ET|||6.5|||56|
|TA&M@TENN 12:00PM ET|||14|||51.5|
|[email protected]UTAH 1:30PM ET|||10.5|||56|
|MIZZ@MSST 3:30PM ET|||1|||49.5|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Justin Fields and Matt Corral. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,083. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before every game is canceled, let’s decide this week’s plan for CFB DFS magnificence!
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Jonathan Mingo | WR | Ole Miss $3,700
The opt out bug bit the Kiffin Rebels hard this week. The team’s top two pass catchers, wideout Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah, have left the team to focus on preparation for the NFL draft. That leaves a gargantuan hole in the Rebel pass heavy attack. So, what does it mean? Who will benefit the most?
First of all, no one can replace Moore or duplicate his production. But, Kiffin isn’t going to alter his style so ceilings on the remaining players are getting a boost the rest of the way. The obvious candidates are Dontario Drummond, Braylon Sanders, and Mingo. For a few reasons, the former 4-star sophomore, Mingo, would be my choice.
With Moore and Yeboah on the field, Mingo is currently third on the team in catches and yards having only played in six of the teams eight games this season, so we know he already has a solidified secondary role when he is on the field. Also, I prefer his pedigree to the other two individuals. Mingo is the future at the receiver position as a sophomore for this program. This will be his first real spot to showcase why he was highly coveted as a recruit.
But, the best reason? His price! The one thing we know for certain with Moore and Yeboah being out is that we don’t know anything for certain. Other than pure speculation, there isn’t any real evidence to suggest that one of these options is absolutely superior to the other. In those circumstances, why pay the higher price when each player has a fairly equal chance of increasing the their production. All three are now in a position to greatly outperform their price and will likely be a factor in GPP contests.
Kayshon Boutte | WR | LSU $5,700
The Tiger receiving core has also been blasted by opt outs. By default, this former 5-star has been one of the last men standing and he’s been taking advantage down the stretch, in LSU’s last two games.
With two different starting quarterbacks, this redshirt freshman amassed a 13-219-1 line in two starts against Alabama and Florida. This week, he checks all the boxes–projected shootout, role in the offense, and reasonable price, making Boutte my one of my favorite price/floor/upside candidates at any position this week.
Jaden Walley | WR | Mississippi St $5,900
One of the only bright spots for Mike Leach’s first season in Starkville has been the emergence of this freshman at wide receiver. Here’s his last three games:
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- 7-115-1 @ Georgia
- 9-176-0 @ Ole Miss
- 8-100-0 Vs Auburn
Anyone can pop off with big game here and there. Two games in row is a cute little run. But a three game stretch like this isn’t a fluke. It’s also good enough to give Walley the team lead in receptions and yards this season. His connection with fellow freshman quarterback Will Rogers is established and real. Similar to Boutte, the price hasn’t completely adjusted to the late season production, making Walley a great value Saturday. I expect him to hit the century mark in yardage for a fourth consecutive game.
CFB DFS Podcast
For my expanded thoughts on this slate, listen to my CFB DFS podcast below where I go through every game on the board. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Please share with anyone you think may be interested. Also, don’t forget to leave a review and subscribe. Enjoy!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Going back the sexiest CFB DFS matchup on the board between LSU and Ole Miss, Max Johnson makes a ton of sense for pretty obvious reasons if you want to save at this position. If you want to get a little deeper (and who doesn’t), I think Wisconsin’s freshman Graham Wertz can return value based on his matchup.
Minnesota’s defense allows over 430 yards and over 30 points per game. If you take a quick peek at his game log, you’ll notice Wertz had one great game, one decent game, and three bad/terrible games so far this season. You may also notice the three bad/terrible games came against the Small Ten’s best defensive teams in the conference, other than the Badgers themselves. And, the two great/decent games came against the conference’s shitty defensive teams.
I don’t know about you, but I think the aforementioned Gopher stats put them in the shitty bucket. I think Wertz can notch 15-20 DK points which is plenty at his dirt cheap price.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Similar to Javonte Williams for North Carolina last week, there is one running back that, on paper, has all the non negotiables required to warrant my CFB DFS spending. The positive game script, bell cow role, ability to catch passes, focal point in the offense, and does not kill my budget. Utah’s running back Ty Jordan has that all right now.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 16 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.