If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 10 games included in the afternoon DK contest:
|[email protected]OU 3:30PM ET||24.5||64|
|[email protected]UH 3:30PM ET||7.5||74|
|WISC@NW 12:00PM ET||6.5||51.5|
|[email protected]PSU 3:30PM ET||6||53.5|
|[email protected]MIZZ 4:00PM ET||6.5||54.5|
|[email protected]ISU 12:00PM ET||4||55.5|
|CLEM@FSU 12:00PM ET||17||51|
|[email protected]USC 3:30PM ET||6.5||54|
|TCU@KU 3:00PM ET||14.5||49|
|[email protected]UGA 3:30PM ET||7||52|
For example, this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like D’Eriq King and Kyler Murray. What I will do is point out that rostering both stud quarterbacks in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $4,867. This is the price range I will focus on each week.
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Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing! Let’s get to it..
T.J. Hockenson | TE | Iowa $4,100
The Hawkeyes’ top option in the passing game is in the midst of a sophomore breakout season. Take a look at what the Chariton, Iowa, native has been able to do so far this season compared to last year:
|2018 (7 games)||25||424||17||3|
Last week, I discussed how Penn St.’s defense has proven to be shaky at best, against quality opponents. Accordingly, the trend continued when they surrendered another 554 yards of offense to Indiana.
Out of the eight games with an over/under in the 50-55 point range, I think this is one that could be the sneaky shootout of the bunch. Iowa’s starting tailback Ivory Kelly-Martin ($4,700) makes for a good value play at running back in this game as well.
Lamical Perine | RB | Florida $4,600
College football is funny. Probably more than any other sport we all follow do rankings, stats, and team records have less meaning than in this one. What I am trying to say is, there’s a reasonable chance Georgia blows, or at the very least, is an average SEC team.
So far this season, Georgia has played only two quality opponents, Missouri (I know, quality is a stretch but they are probably the second best offense they’ve faced) and LSU. Signs were there, that stopping the run could be an issue for the Bulldogs season long outlook when they surrendered 150 yards, and three scores to Missouri running backs.
After a couple scrimmages with Vandy and Tennessee, those signs became a reality when the bottom dropped out, in by far their toughest matchup of the season with LSU.
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Besides losing the turnover battle 4-0, the defense allowed LSU backs to run roughshod all afternoon. Sophomore, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has only gone over the 100 yard rushing mark one time this season against Louisiana Tech, went for 146 yards on 19 carries against the Bulldog front. And, he’s primarily been the backup at running back to Nick Brossette all season!
Look, I’m sure they’ll be fired up for a rivalry game with the Gators after getting embarrassed by LSU, but things won’t be getting any easier defending the run. All Florida wants to do is wear opponents down with the run, and rely on playing good defense. It’s their entire model for winning.
We really don’t know much about any of these teams until they start getting into the tougher parts of their conference schedules. All we can do is take the information we have to speculate on future performance.
I’m betting that there is something to Georgia being vulnerable to the run, and that Florida has the horses to exploit it. Both Perine, and backfield mate Jordan Scarlett ($4,100) should have tons of volume in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party to return value Saturday afternoon.
Justyn Ross | WR | Clemson $5,200
Speaking of, congrats to all the heroes who made that term go away for whatever reason. Very noble work you’re doing. You must be the same people who championed altering freshman to first years.
Anyway, yeah Ross again. What the hell do you want from me? I’ll just keep saying it. He should be closer to $6,500. Big game coming. Blah. Blah. Blah.
Romello Brooker | TE | Houston $3,200
The 6’5″, 253 pound TE, is one of the better dart throws in the field this week. The homegrown Houston native has taken on a much larger role offensively in his senior season.
The stats don’t jump off the page, but his 13-184-4 line in seven games this year is more than he has amassed the past two seasons combine. In a projected back and forth shootout with USF, I like him to extend his touchdown streak to four consecutive games.
Pooka Williams Jr. | RB | Kansas $5,900
If you’ve been reading me at all this season, you know my love for Pooka. This is more of a price point play. The past couple weeks, the Jayhawk freshman sensation has been appropriately priced in the 7k range where someone with his guaranteed volume/talent combo should be.
The past couple games, his productivity has been somewhat stifled due to game flow, and being a member of the Kansas football team in general. But, as long as the volume is there, the home run plays will eventually follow.
And, a home game against a TCU team that just lost their starting quarterback (more on this later) to injury, and star receiver to being a bad person, might just be the week for Williams to make his fifth house call of the season.
In what might be their best chance to get their first conference win since November of 2016, I think Kansas keeps this game close into the fourth quarter, and Pooka will be a big reason why.
USF Running Backs
I wrote about Johnny Ford as sneaky play for last week’s night slate breakdown. Apparently, that offended him because he snuck up on anyone who played the nation’s fifth leading rusher Jordan Cronkrite ($8,800) the way Derrick Lewis’s right hand snuck up on this poor Russian…
Ford’s ($5,300) breakout 7-164-3 line won’t make him RB1, but it’s clear he isn’t going away, and will have a significant role on offense moving forward. Cronkrite buyers beware.
As mentioned, the Horned Frogs offense was handed to sophomore, Michael Collins, last week in the second quarter at Oklahoma. He fared well initially, leading TCU to 17 points in his first three possessions, before the Sooners tightened things up, pulling away in the second half.
He’ll get his first chance to show what he can do as a starter in a plus matchup with a leaky Jayhawk defense. That’s the good news.
Perhaps, the more impactful change to the TCU offense, is the news of KaVontae Turpin’s dismissal from the team. His absence won’t do any favors for Collin’s success, but it does provide any opportunity for Taye Barber ($4,200), and Jarrison Stewart ($4,000) to get more run.
My money would go on Barber to emerge. He was recruited for his blazing 4.5 second 40 speed, and has already drawn comparisons to Turpin as TCU’s next swiss army knife on offense.
Most importantly, it was his birthday this week!
Welp! Round one without injured top receiver Emanuel Hall goes to tight end Albert Okwuegbunam ($6,200), who laid down a 6-159-3 monster last week in their blowout win over Memphis. Things should be more difficult against a stout Kentucky defense (are we in the right sport) this week, but this remains a situation to monitor.
If Hall is unable to go again, Jalen Knox ($5,600), and Nate Brown ($3,300) are also worth considering.
Fading the Chalk at Quarterback
Brock Purdy | QB | Iowa St. $7,000
This is just a flat out classic miss by who, or whatever spits out prices for DK. Purdy has been a revelation for the Cyclone offense the second he stepped in a few weeks ago at Oklahoma St. As a dual threat quarterback, I’m anticipating a floor of 25 points, with upside for much more in a nice home matchup against up tempo Texas Tech.
If you want to dig a bit deeper, I like Iowa’s Nate Stanley ($5,200) against the aforementioned very getable PSU secondary.
Chalk I can’t Live Without
D’Eriq King | QB | Houston $10,200
No analysis needed here. He’s gone north of 40 DK points in five of seven games this season. The junior leads an explosive offense through the air, and on the ground in what should be a shootout. With Kyler Murray having a little game flow risk, I’m going King, if I’m paying up Saturday afternoon.
Good luck for the Week 9 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always greatly appreciated. Click here for my night slate breakdown.