Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week 2

It’s very easy to get carried away in Fantasy Football and let “Recency Bias” kill your chances at winning. Last year, Justin Jefferson started slow, with a 4.6 point game in PPR scoring and followed that up with a 7.4 point effort in Week 2. Since, he only took 36 and 29 offensive snaps in those games. He had some people worried but we ALL know what happened in Week Three and beyond. While we shouldn’t overreact to a slow start, we also need to factor it into our weekly values in Fantasy Football. Forget about year-end projections because Fantasy Football is a weekly game that needs weekly tools. Let’s take a look at the updated Best 10 and Consistency Ratings after Week 2. 

Best 10 Explained

Two factors are important in Fantasy Football; consistency and big game ability. My “Best 10” rating attempts to combine those two variables into one number that represents “Weekly Value” in Fantasy Football. 

Weekly Value at QB

It should come as no surprise after games of 42 and 33 points (6 Pt TDs), that Patrick Mahomes still leads the way in Weekly Value. But close on his heels is Russel Wilson, who has also gotten off to a solid start this season. Let’s take a look at the data after Week 2. 

Player	Best 10	Consistency
Mahomes	41.1	74
Wilson	41	55
L Jackson	39.9	68
J Allen	38.8	48
Murray	38.7	59
Brady	38.3	52
Prescott	38	56
Rodgers	38	61
Herbert	35.5	58
Winston	35.4	44
Tannehill	34.8	58
Ryan	33.8	42
Cousins	33.4	60
Stafford	32.2	44
Goff	31.5	36
Carr	30.3	47
D Jones	29.7	25
Big Ben	29.5	44

Weekly Value at RB

The results of crunching the data after Week Two is also a bit anticlimactic at the top of the standings at Running Back with the usual cast of characters in their usual places. CMC is a cheat code in PPR Fantasy Football and leads the way with King Henry in second place. The elite five stayed in place with a big drop from there on down. Alvin Kamara slid a bit from his preseason rankings. Let’s take a look at the data at RB. 

Player	Best 10	Consistency
CMC	33.7	95
Henry	32.9	78
A Jones	30.7	78
Kamara	29.7	87
Cook	28.3	96
Ekeler	25	89
Chubb	23.5	82
Elliott	23.4	78
Montgomery	22.7	61
Barkley	22.3	52
Jacobs	22	75
Carson	21.6	85
J Robinson	21.5	81
Mixon	21	62
Taylor	21	75
M Gordon	20.9	65
Sanders	20.8	63
Swift	20.4	85
Drake	20.3	61
Ingram	19.9	68

Player	Best 10	Consistency
Fournette	19.8	78
D Johnson	19.1	85
M Davis	19	55
J Williams	18.4	0
Gibson	18.4	71
R Jones	17.9	66
Pollard	17.8	44
J Williams	17.8	54
K Hunt	17.7	51
Harris	17.3	50
D Henderson	17.2	46
McKissic	16.9	47
CEH	16.8	73
Edmunds	16.6	61

Weekly Value at WR

After an amazing 2020 campaign, Devante Adams had a nice buffer going into the 2021 season. His first 2 weeks of this season have been enough to keep him on top but others are gaining on him. Tyler Lockett has closed to 2nd place after a strong start to this season. Lockett and his teammate, DJ Metcalf, have accounted for over 70% of their teams targets between them after 2 weeks. Let’s take a look at the weekly values at WR. 

Player	Best 10	Consistency
Adams	30.3	85
Lockett	28.2	61
Hill	27.6	92
Evans	26.7	70
Hopkins	26	81
Thielan	25.8	64
Kupp	25.5	75
Diggs	25.2	78
Cooper	24.9	68
Godwin	24.9	79
K Allen	24.1	80
Jefferson	24	70
AJ Brown	23.9	67
Ridley	23.9	82
An Brown	23.8	77
Robinson	23.7	82
J Jones	23.4	83
M Jones	23.3	52
Woods	22.9	63
Fuller	22.4	65

Player	Best 10	Consistency
McLaurin	21.8	71
Crowder	21.7	57
Samuel	21.6	62
Metcalf	21.5	73
Chark	21.3	53
D Johnson	20.9	64
J Chase	20.7	100
Boyd	20.6	65
Golladay	20.6	77
Aiyuk	20.6	61
DJ Moore	20.4	74.2
Shephard	20.3	72
B Cooks	19.8	58
Parker	19.5	78
D Smith	19.5	50
Higgins	19.3	75
Sutton	19.3	63
Lamb	19.3	76
Schuster-Smith	19.2	58

Weekly Value at TE

When it comes to the TE position, there are now two undisputed elite players at the position: Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Their “Best 10” scores of 24.6 and 24.3 respectively are more than 3 ½ points better than 3rd place and would place them in 11th place among WRs. Let’s take a look at the weekly values at the TE position after Week 2. 

Player	Best 10	Consistency
Kelce	24.6	90
Waller	24.3	70
Kittle	20.8	70
Andrews	20	62
Gronk	19.7	52
Ertz	17.4	44
Hockenson	17.3	46
Hooper	16.5	57
Higbee	16.5	33
Gesecki	16.3	34
Pitts	15.8	50
Fant	15.6	32
J Cook	15.1	72
Goedert	15.1	46
Tonyan	14.8	62
Thomas	14.7	57
Henry	14.3	60
J Smith	14.1	40
Engram	14.1	46
Schultz	12.2	33

How to Use Data to Set Lineups

One of the benefits of the “Best 10” weekly value ratings for Fantasy Football is that it gives you a good comparison between players at RB, WR and TE when deciding who to play in the Flex position. It can also be used in a Superflex league to compare your weaker QB with a stronger position player to judge that matchup. It’s also useful to use the Consistency Rating to determine how often your player is expected to post a minimum game performance which is defined as 25 points (6 Pt TD Leagues) for QB and 10 points for all other positions. Players with a Consistency Rating over the 65-70 range are generally considered matchup proof while the lower the rating the more often that player accrued his best games against weaker defenses. If a player is within a few points on both “Best 10” and “Consistency Rating” it is best to play the player with the best matchup. When it comes to matchup data Professor John Bush’s articles here on Fake Pig Skin are a great resource. 

Best of luck in Week 3 and feel free to contact me on Twitter at @DMICmedia if you have any questions.