It’s very easy to get carried away in Fantasy Football and let “Recency Bias” kill your chances at winning. Last year, Justin Jefferson started slow, with a 4.6 point game in PPR scoring and followed that up with a 7.4 point effort in Week 2. Since, he only took 36 and 29 offensive snaps in those games. He had some people worried but we ALL know what happened in Week Three and beyond. While we shouldn’t overreact to a slow start, we also need to factor it into our weekly values in Fantasy Football. Forget about year-end projections because Fantasy Football is a weekly game that needs weekly tools. Let’s take a look at the updated Best 10 and Consistency Ratings after Week 2.
Best 10 Explained
Two factors are important in Fantasy Football; consistency and big game ability. My “Best 10” rating attempts to combine those two variables into one number that represents “Weekly Value” in Fantasy Football.
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Weekly Value at QB
It should come as no surprise after games of 42 and 33 points (6 Pt TDs), that Patrick Mahomes still leads the way in Weekly Value. But close on his heels is Russel Wilson, who has also gotten off to a solid start this season. Let’s take a look at the data after Week 2.
Weekly Value at RB
The results of crunching the data after Week Two is also a bit anticlimactic at the top of the standings at Running Back with the usual cast of characters in their usual places. CMC is a cheat code in PPR Fantasy Football and leads the way with King Henry in second place. The elite five stayed in place with a big drop from there on down. Alvin Kamara slid a bit from his preseason rankings. Let’s take a look at the data at RB.
Weekly Value at WR
After an amazing 2020 campaign, Devante Adams had a nice buffer going into the 2021 season. His first 2 weeks of this season have been enough to keep him on top but others are gaining on him. Tyler Lockett has closed to 2nd place after a strong start to this season. Lockett and his teammate, DJ Metcalf, have accounted for over 70% of their teams targets between them after 2 weeks. Let’s take a look at the weekly values at WR.
Weekly Value at TE
When it comes to the TE position, there are now two undisputed elite players at the position: Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Their “Best 10” scores of 24.6 and 24.3 respectively are more than 3 ½ points better than 3rd place and would place them in 11th place among WRs. Let’s take a look at the weekly values at the TE position after Week 2.
How to Use Data to Set Lineups
One of the benefits of the “Best 10” weekly value ratings for Fantasy Football is that it gives you a good comparison between players at RB, WR and TE when deciding who to play in the Flex position. It can also be used in a Superflex league to compare your weaker QB with a stronger position player to judge that matchup. It’s also useful to use the Consistency Rating to determine how often your player is expected to post a minimum game performance which is defined as 25 points (6 Pt TD Leagues) for QB and 10 points for all other positions. Players with a Consistency Rating over the 65-70 range are generally considered matchup proof while the lower the rating the more often that player accrued his best games against weaker defenses. If a player is within a few points on both “Best 10” and “Consistency Rating” it is best to play the player with the best matchup. When it comes to matchup data Professor John Bush’s articles here on Fake Pig Skin are a great resource.
Best of luck in Week 3 and feel free to contact me on Twitter at @DMICmedia if you have any questions.