NFL Week 3 Picks and Props

NFL Week 3 is here and its time to dive into more Picks and Props. After a successful 4-1 week, Kyle brings 3 more picks for this week. Aaron is also back from his brief hiatus to get back on track.

Kyle

Week: 4-1

Season: 6-2

Aaron

Season: 1-2

Which NFL ATS and Props are they targeting this week?

Kyle’s Week 3 Picks

Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at Minnesota Vikings

The Seattle Seahawks are in a fantastic spot this week despite being on the road. The offense has taken off under the new OC Shane Waldron. QB Russell Wilson leads the league in aDot for QBs of the players who played both Week 1 and 2.

Now he faces a Vikings team that can be had via opposing passers. Kyler Murray torched them 400 TDs and 3 TDs. This was on the heels of Joe Burrow hitting them for 261 and 2 TDs.

Seattle is also impressive ATS off of a loss. HC Pete Carroll is 18-8 ATS off a loss as a favorite.

The Vikings passing game has been impressive thus far and they can keep this game close but I’ll take the road team in this spot.

Pick: Seahawks -1.5

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers are on the road this week after falling just short against the Cowboys. LA fell short in the red zone despite moving the ball effectively between the 20’s. 

Now they face a Chiefs team that was the worst at allowing TDs at a staggering 72.88% of TDs on opponent red zone trips. Through 2 weeks, Kansas City is up to their old ways allowing 100% of red zone trips ending in a TD.

While the Chiefs are incredible, when it comes to their ATS record, it leaves a lot to be desired. A season ago, they went 7-10 as a favorite and 4-5 as a home favorite. 

I was on the fence about backing LA but getting the full 7 in a smash for me. 

Pick: Chargers +7 

Trevor Lawrence OVER 12.5 Rushing Yards

A week ago, Trevor Lawrence finally flashed his rushing skills tallying 21 yards on 2 carries. Now, he faces a Cardinals defense that will provide some opportunity to run. They have a front seven that will put pressure on the QB. This will force opposing QBs to escape and gain what they can.

Last week, Kirk Cousins rushed for 35 yards on just two carries. In Week 1, Ryan Tannehill rushed for 17 yards on 2 carries. While both QBs have some mobility, neither are the rusher the caliber of Lawrence.

12.5 yards is a very attainable number that can be gained on one solid rush. You could have a winner before half time with this total. 

Pick: Trevor Lawrence OVER 12.5 Rushing Yards

Aaron’s Week 3 Picks

Tennessee Titans -5 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Honestly surprised this line hasn’t risen more! I got it at -4 and -4.5 on Monday after hearing about Wentz’ ankles… and there’s no chance he plays and/or plays effectively.

Tannehill hasn’t yet blown up yet, but this offense is due. I’m expecting a huge game out of A.J. Brown, Henry will run all over this poor run defense, and Tennessee wins by 7-10 points. Easy lock for me.

Pick: Titans -5

Los Angeles Rams +1.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m going with a Top 5 team at home here given that they are underdogs. The Rams beat up on the Bucs last year with Jared Goff slinging the ball and I expect their efficient offense to keep cookin’ this week.

With Antonio Brown likely out, Brady will have 1 less top-target to work with and I think AB does a lot for this team, even when he doesn’t catch balls… in week 2 he still opened up the field for Gronk plenty.

Brady & the boys have been outgained in both games so far but came out with the wins… I think their luck runs out this week against Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Co.

Pick: Rams +1.5

Arizona Cardinals -7 .5@ Jacksonville Jaguars

At -7.5 I’m a bit hesitant, but I need the Jags to prove something to me before I trust them. They are clearly still figuring their offense out and their defense looks no better than it was last year.

The Cardinals are putting up 36 PPG and are one of the best offenses in football (see my Kyler Murray Offensive Player of the Year bet). Maybe this turns into a shootout if Trevor Lawrence can fit some tight passes in downfield… maybe it’s a blowout. Either way, worst case to me is the Cards winning by a TD.

Pick: Cardinals -7.5

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