NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 6

Welcome to Week Six, season nine, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

While there weren’t any division upsets last week, Detroit came seconds away from beating Minnesota before the Vikings shockingly made a game winning field goal, and San Francisco gave an undefeated Cardinals team almost all they could handle.  However, just because there were no upsets last week, doesn’t mean there won’t be any this week!

Every single year, one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival.  The problem is, you never know when it is going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:

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  • Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
  • Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
  • Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Our streak of primetime games being decided by three or less points finally ended last week, but that didn’t mean we didn’t have some exciting matchups.  The big winner was Monday night where the Colts and Ravens went into overtime, and the Colts came just shy of their bid for upset of the week.

For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion, while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
  • Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Once again, we saw eight home teams win with eight road times finding victory this past week.  We saw Houston and Cincinnati come very close to home upsets, but both fell short in the final seconds.  We’re definitely coming closer and closer to paying less attention to this rule in 2021.

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
  • Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
  • Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions
  • Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team
  • Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
  • Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
  • Indianapolis Colts over the Houston Texans

The Colts proved on Monday night that they aren’t as bad as their record.  They played a very good Ravens team in prime time and took them into overtime, falling just short of their upset bid.  This week, they return home to host a Texans team that is having a rough season.  While I don’t expect a blowout like Vegas is, I do expect the Colts to win on Sunday.

 An alternate option I like this week:

  • Carolina Panthers over the Minnesota Vikings

While the Panthers lost another tough game last week, the hope is CMC returns this week and that should change their fortune.  This Carolina team is too good to lose three games in a row and after the Vikings gave their all to barely beat the lowly Lions last week I think the Panthers can take out all their frustration on a Vikings team thinking they are better than then truly are.

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Rule breaker pick of the week:

  •  Los Angeles Rams over the New York Giants

The Rams are one of the best teams in football right now and the Giants will be missing their star running back and their best wide receiver.  This game could certainly get out of hand even with the Rams playing on the road.

Last Week’s Record = 2-1

Season Record = 11-4

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

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