Weekly Values for Week 17. It’s that most wonderful time of the year! No, I am NOT a week late to wish you a Merry Christmas; this is the week that MOST Fantasy Football Championships get decided. This is when the money is won or lost for the year! So heading into week 16, it doesn’t pay to get cute. The old phrase, “Dance with the one that brung ya,” usually rings true unless injuries, Covid, or severe weather issues come into play. As usual, IF the weekly values and consistency ratings are close, you need to play the matchup game, and Professor John Bush can help you with that data here on Fake Pig Skin. So let’s check the weekly values after week 16.
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QB Value Weekly Values for Week 17
Josh Allen moved back to the top of the Weekly Value chart this week, but he is 1 to Patrick Mahomes 1A when you look at the data. Mahomes still has the edge on Consistency, but the new “Power Rating,” which is being Beta Tested this season, gives Allen the 10-week rolling average edge. Dak Prescott moved into QB5 this week, and there is a significant drop-off of over 3 points after QB9. Davis Mills is the top-rated rookie at QB25. Let’s take a look at the rest of the weekly value data.
| Player | Best 10 | Consistency | Last Week | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Allen | 43.2 | 57 | 2 | Buf |
| Mahomes | 43 | 70 | 1 | KC |
| Brady | 41.1 | 53 | 3 | TB |
| L Jackson | 40.4 | 61 | 4 | Bal |
| Prescott | 39.6 | 60 | 9 | Dal |
| Murray | 39.3 | 57 | 5 | AZ |
| Herbert | 39 | 66 | 6 | LAC |
| Wilson | 38.8 | 50 | 7 | Sea |
| Rodgers | 38.7 | 67 | 8 | GB |
| Stafford | 35.6 | 47 | 10 | LAR |
| Cousins | 34.6 | 51 | 11 | Min |
| Ryan | 34.1 | 38 | 12 | Atl |
| Hurts | 32.3 | 44 | 13 | Phl |
| Tannehill | 31.6 | 42 | 14 | Ten |
| Burrow | 31.2 | 56 | 19 | Cin |
| Carr | 30.3 | 44 | 15 | LV |
| Wentz | 30.2 | 38 | 17 | Ind |
| Goff | 29.9 | 32 | 18 | Det |
| Jimmy G | 29.5 | 27 | 20 | SF |
| Tua | 29 | 22 | 22 | Mia |
| Heinecke | 29 | 31 | 16 | WAS |
| Newton | 28.9 | 37 | 23 | Car |
| Mayfield | 28.5 | 21 | 24 | Cle |
| Big Ben | 28.5 | 37 | 21 | Pitt |
| Mills | 28 | 11 | 27 | Hou |
| T Hill | 28 | 57 | 25 | NO |
| Bridgewater | 27.9 | 34 | 26 | Den |
| M Jones | 26.9 | 21 | 28 | NE |
| Z Wilson | 26.4 | 20 | 29 | NYJ |
| Fields | 24.3 | 10 | 30 | Chi |
| Lawrence | 23 | 13 | 31 | Jax |
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RB Value
As usual, this time of the year, it’s rare to have too many healthy RBs on your Fantasy Football roster, so the weekly value of replacement-level players is more important than ever heading into the Fantasy Football Finals. Despite a scoring drought in recent weeks, Alvin Kamara retains the top spot and hopes for a better QB this week to finish off the season.
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Additionally, if he were healthy, Jonathan Taylor would hold down the RB2 place with a complete advantage over Aaron Jones. However, we have to assume less volume for a banged-up Jones this week, which would put his “Virtual Weekly Value” down 20% to the RB14 level. It’s even more of a guessing game for Ekeler and Swift if they return this week as expected. One of the biggest surprises down the stretch is Rashaad Penny, who is up to RB13 level right now. Let’s take a look at the rest of the data.
| Player | Best 10 | Consistency | Last Week | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamara | 31.6 | 85 | 1 | NO |
| Taylor | 30.7 | 83 | 2 | Ind |
| A Jones | 29.6 | 77 | 3 | GB |
| Ekeler | 28.5 | 90 | 4 | LAC |
| Cook | 28 | 92 | 5 | Min |
| Mixon | 27.6 | 68 | 7 | Cin |
| Fornette | 27.3 | 80 | 6 | TB |
| Chubb | 25.6 | 77 | 8 | Cle |
| Harris | 24.8 | 73 | 9 | Pit |
| Swift | 24.1 | 82 | 10 | Det |
| Montgomery | 24.1 | 65 | 14 | Chi |
| Elliott | 23.8 | 80 | 11 | Dal |
| Penny | 23.7 | 71 | 13 | Sea |
| Conner | 23.4 | 77 | 12 | Az |
| Barkley | 23.1 | 63 | 16 | NYG |
| J Robinson | 22.4 | 85 | 17 | Jax |
| Jacobs | 22.4 | 80 | 18 | LV |
| AJ Dillon | 22 | 67 | 19 | GB |
| Drake | 21.5 | 61 | 20 | LV |
| E Mitchell | 21 | 67 | 21 | SF |
| M Gordon | 21 | 61 | 22 | Den |
| Sanders | 20.9 | 56 | 23 | Phl |
| Mattison | 20.4 | 71 | 28 | Min |
| Gibson | 20.4 | 67 | 24 | Was |
| J Williams | 20.4 | 60 | 25 | Den |
| M Carter | 20 | 64 | 26 | NYJ |
| Wilson | 19.8 | 65 | 32 | SF |
| K Hunt | 19.8 | 63 | 27 | Cle |
| D Henderson | 19.5 | 50 | 29 | LAR |
| Patterson | 19.3 | 58 | 15 | Atl |
| Gaskin | 19.1 | 68 | 30 | Mia |
| Jackson | 18.8 | 63 | NA | LAC |
| D Harris | 18.6 | 62 | 44 | NE |
| Freeman | 18.1 | 61 | 31 | Bal |
| J Williams | 18.1 | 48 | 33 | Det |
| Stevenson | 18 | 38 | 34 | NE |
| Perine | 17.8 | 50 | 35 | Cin |
| Gainwell | 17.7 | 67 | 36 | Phl |
| R Jones | 17.7 | 66 | 37 | TB |
| CEH | 17.5 | 74 | 38 | KC |
| Michel | 17.4 | 63 | 45 | LAR |
| Edmunds | 17.4 | 62 | 46 | Az |
| D Williams | 16.7 | 52 | 39 | KC |
| D Johnson | 16.7 | 39 | NA | Mia |
| M Davis | 16.6 | 50 | 41 | Atl |
| Booker | 16.5 | 64 | 42 | NYG |
| Hines | 16.5 | 48 | 43 | Ind |
| Singletary | 16.4 | 51 | 47 | Buf |
| Pollard | 16.2 | 46 | 40 | Dal |
| Scott | 16 | 47 | NA | Phl |
| Hilliard | 15.7 | 38 | 48 | Ten |
| L Murray | 15.5 | 36 | 49 | Bal |
| D Johnson | 15 | 66 | 50 | Hou |
| Gore | 14.5 | 100 | NA | KC |
| Breida | 14 | 58 | 51 | Buf |
| Hubbard | 13.8 | 44 | 52 | Car |
| T Johnson | 13.6 | 25 | 53 | NYJ |
| Moss | 13.1 | 53 | 54 | Buf |
| Foreman | 13 | 60 | 55 | Ten |
| Abdullah | 11.7 | 25 | 56 | Car |
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WR Value
There is always a debate on how many elite TEs exist in Fantasy Football. Still, today the weekly values are defining the existence of only three super-elite WRs in Fantasy Football. Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill have separated by 2 to almost 5 points over the 4th place WR Tyler Lockett. When you consider Lockett’s low consistency percentage, the gap becomes even better defined. AJ Brown and Deebo Samuel have had a strong push to join the top 10 among the healthy WRs. Let’s take a look at the rest of the data at WR.
| Player | Best 10 | Consistency | Last Week | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams | 34.6 | 90 | 2 | GB |
| Kupp | 32.9 | 83 | 1 | LAR |
| Hill | 31.5 | 85 | 3 | KC |
| Lockett | 29.7 | 59 | 4 | Sea |
| Evans | 29.1 | 71 | 5 | TB |
| Godwin | 27.5 | 80 | 6 | TB |
| Jefferson | 26.6 | 80 | 7 | Min |
| Thielan | 26.6 | 63 | 8 | Min |
| AJ Brown | 26.5 | 64 | 12 | Ten |
| Diggs | 26.1 | 80 | 9 | Buf |
| Samuel | 25.7 | 85 | 13 | SF |
| J Chase | 25.6 | 73 | 10 | Cin |
| Cooper | 25.6 | 70 | 15 | Dal |
| Hopkins | 25.3 | 83 | 11 | AZ |
| An Brown | 24.5 | 85 | 14 | TB |
| K Allen | 24 | 86 | 16 | LAC |
| D Johnson | 23.7 | 73 | 17 | Pit |
| McLaurin | 23.6 | 61 | 18 | Was |
| Ridley | 23.5 | 84 | 19 | Atl |
| Lamb | 23.2 | 72 | 20 | Dal |
| Waddle | 22.8 | 71 | 26 | Mia |
| J Jones | 22.5 | 69 | 21 | Ten |
| B Cooks | 22.5 | 59 | 22 | Hou |
| M Jones | 22.5 | 52 | 25 | Jax |
| Metcalf | 22.3 | 72 | 23 | Sea |
| M Williams | 21.7 | 49 | 27 | LAC |
| M Brown | 21.1 | 55 | 24 | Bal |
| Boyd | 21 | 64 | 29 | Cin |
| DJ Moore | 20.9 | 73 | 28 | Car |
| D Smith | 20.6 | 53 | 36 | Phl |
| Beasley | 20.4 | 62 | 30 | Buf |
| Crowder | 20.4 | 51 | 32 | NYJ |
| Higgins | 20.3 | 74 | 33 | Cin |
| Renfrow | 20.3 | 56 | 34 | LV |
| ASB | 20.2 | 54 | 43 | Det |
| Gallup | 20.1 | 50 | 35 | Dal |
| Sanders | 19.9 | 54 | 31 | Buf |
| Landry | 19.8 | 65 | 38 | Cle |
| Kirk | 19.8 | 60 | 37 | AZ |
| Sutton | 19.5 | 48 | 39 | Den |
| Parker | 19.3 | 77 | 40 | Mia |
| Robinson | 19.2 | 69 | 41 | Chi |
| Hilton | 19.2 | 50 | 56 | Ind |
| Pittman | 18.7 | 43 | 42 | Ind |
| Aiyuk | 18.6 | 58 | 44 | SF |
| Golladay | 18.5 | 61 | 45 | NYG |
| Gage | 18.4 | 56 | 46 | Atl |
| MVS | 18.2 | 26 | 47 | GB |
| Bourne | 17.9 | 47 | 49 | NE |
| Beckham | 17.7 | 64 | 50 | Lar |
| Toney | 17.7 | 38 | 51 | NYG |
| Claypool | 17.6 | 58 | 48 | Pit |
| Osborn | 17.4 | 43 | NA | Min |
| Agholor | 17.2 | 33 | 52 | NE |
| R Moore | 17.1 | 36 | 53 | AZ |
| Anderson | 17 | 51 | 55 | Car |
| Mooney | 17 | 47 | 54 | Chi |
| Peoples-Jones | 16.5 | 41 | 58 | Cle |
| Jefferson | 16.5 | 39 | 59 | LAR |
| Harris | 16 | 88 | 60 | NO |
| Pringle | 15.7 | 32 | 78 | KC |
| Slayton | 15.6 | 40 | 62 | NYG |
| Pascal | 15.4 | 29 | 63 | Ind |
| Green | 15.3 | 56 | 57 | AZ |
| Meyers | 15.2 | 47 | 65 | NE |
| Lazard | 15.2 | 33 | 67 | GB |
| Patrick | 15 | 43 | 66 | Den |
| G Davis | 14.4 | 52 | 68 | Buf |
| Callaway | 14.4 | 32 | 64 | NO |
| Raymond | 14.3 | 33 | 69 | Det |
| Carter | 14.3 | 33 | 70 | Was |
| J Reynolds | 14.2 | 29 | 71 | Det |
| Hardman | 14.1 | 52 | 72 | KC |
| Jeudy | 13.6 | 52 | 61 | Den |
| Westbrook-Ikhine | 13.3 | 43 | 73 | Ten |
| Shenaut | 12.7 | 41 | 75 | Jax |
| Edwards | 12.5 | 29 | 76 | LV |
| Watkins | 12.4 | 38 | 77 | Bal |
| Swain | 12.2 | 29 | 74 | Sea |
| T Smith | 11.7 | 28 | 79 | NO |
| Higgins | 11.4 | 32 | 80 | Cle |
| Collins | 10.7 | 18 | NA | Hou |
| Reagor | 10.3 | 18 | 81 | Phl |
| T Marshall | 10 | 0 | 82 | Car |
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TE Value
Even with substitute QBs at the helm, Mark Andrew’s sudden surge has moved him to the top of the TE list when it comes to weekly value. Kittle and Kelce are close behind as the only 3 TEs belonging in that top tier. After the injured Darren Waller in 4th place, the drop is significant in weekly value and consistency rating. Rookie Kyle Pitts is a solid TE10 value, but his consistency rating is still too low to consider him a can’t miss player at TE who will win you games with the scarcity at the position in Fantasy Football. Next, let’s take a look at the rest of the data.
| Player | Best 10 | Consistency | Last Week | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrews | 24.8 | 67 | 3 | Bal |
| Kittle | 24 | 71 | 1 | SF |
| Kelce | 23.9 | 84 | 2 | KC |
| Waller | 22.3 | 71 | 4 | LV |
| Gronk | 19.8 | 54 | 5 | TB |
| Goedert | 19.1 | 49 | 6 | PHL |
| Gesecki | 19 | 38 | 7 | Mia |
| Ertz | 18.9 | 48 | 8 | AZ |
| Schultz | 17.7 | 45 | 9 | Dal |
| Pitts | 17.5 | 47 | 11 | Atl |
| Higbee | 16.8 | 32 | 12 | LAR |
| Henry | 16.2 | 58 | 13 | NE |
| Fant | 16 | 31 | 10 | Den |
| Knox | 16 | 29 | 14 | Buf |
| Friermuth | 15.3 | 58 | 15 | Pit |
| Seals-Jones | 15 | 42 | 16 | WAS |
| Hooper | 14.8 | 46 | 17 | Cle |
| J Cook | 14.6 | 60 | 18 | LAC |
| Conklin | 14 | 20 | 19 | Min |
| J Smith | 13.8 | 36 | 20 | NE |
| Engram | 13.7 | 47 | 21 | NYG |
| Uzomah | 13.7 | 27 | 22 | Cin |
| Everett | 13.3 | 42 | 23 | Sea |
| Njoku | 12.6 | 26 | 24 | Cle |
| Hurst | 12.4 | 35 | 25 | Atl |
| Doyle | 12 | 17 | 26 | Ind |
| Allie-Cox | 11.5 | 17 | 28 | Ind |
| Kmet | 11.1 | 20 | 27 | Chi |
| Trautman | 10 | 13 | 29 | NO |
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Playoff Reminder
As you compare the weekly value of players, remember that if the difference is less than 3 points and if the player’s consistency value is lower than 60%, it’s a good idea to go shopping for the best matchup for your Fantasy Final. Professor John Bush’s weekly article here at FakePigSkin is the best matchup guidance in the business! This week we also added a very unusual weather pattern that could impact all but a few games. Follow me on Twitter @DMICmedia to get the latest weather updates throughout the weekend, as we mentioned in the “Science of Fantasy Podcast” once you have dissected the data and made your decision based on the data, the matchups, and the weather, please do not second guess yourself! More games are lost in Fantasy Football by late decisions based on hunchs, not data. Good luck this week in the Fantasy Finals!
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LINKs
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https://www.fakepigskin.com/2021/12/31/science-of-fantasy-episode-19/
