Week 6 NFL ATS Picks and Props

Welcome to another Week of NFL ATS Picks and Props as Aaron and I focus on the Week 6 slate from a sports betting perspective. In Week 5, while not the 6-0 week from Week 4, was really strong going 4-1-1 in the column.

This week Aaron and I are finally going heads up on pick. Thus far there hasn’t been much, if any overlap both on the same side or opposite sides. Bill Belichick vs Mike McCarthy is a bet I feel great about while Aaron likes his chances with Dak Prescott against the rookie Mac Jones.

Beyond our head to head, we have 5 other NFL picks against the spread for you to consider. Feel free to follow or fade but based on our record thus far, fading may be the move.

Kyle

Week: 2-0-1

Season: 13-3-1

Aaron

Week: 2-1

Season: 9-3

As for our Week 6 picks?

Kyle’s Week 6 Picks

Cleveland Browns -3 vs Arizona Cardinals

This pick has been my favorite since the lines opened on Sunday,  jumping on the line at Browns -2.5. The line has gone to -3 and even -3.5 in some spots as the week has rolled along.

The Cardinals come into this game banged up across the board. Kyler Murray was getting treatment throughout the game against San Francisco and is clearly banged up. The velocity on his throws was noticeably worse. This is an issue we saw last season.

Per DraftSharks, in the 10 games prior to his injury in 2020 he averaged 264.4 passing yards and 1.9 TDs on a 68.3% completion rate and 7.5 yards per attempt. In the 5 games post-injury he averaged 248 passing yards and 1.4 TDs on a 65.0% completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt.

Murray’s rushing production also sunk from 9.2 carries, 61.9 yards and 1 TDs per game pre-injury to 7.8 carries, 39.4 yards and .2 TDs post-injury. 

Beyond the QB, they will be without Rodney Hudson who is key to their offensive line and protecting their banged up QB. They are also potentially without Chandler Jones and DeAndre Hopkins among others this week.

As the Cardinals trend in the wrong direction from an injury perspective, things are trending in the right direction for the Browns. 

They are getting healthier on both lines. Cleveland will be without Nick Chubb which is far from ideal. But with Kareem Hunt, the Browns should still be able to run the ball effectively. Back the home team to hand Arizona their first loss of the season.

Pick: Browns -3

New England Patriots +3.5 vs Dallas Cowboys

The Patriots return home this week to face the Cowboys after squeaking out a win in a game they probably should have lost against the Texans. Dallas comed into this game on fire. They are looking dominant and are 5-0 ATS thus far. 

With the world on the road team in this spot you would think this line would balloon out to more than a TD and yet it is only getting smaller despite opening shorter than anyone expected. 

The Cowboys have thrived on key turnovers with their opposition moving the ball with ease between the 20’s. 

Expect this game to be ugly with New England having a real shot at getting the outright win. I will take the home team getting 3.5. I would consider the Patriots +3 but would not go any lower than that.

Pick: Patriots +3.5

Tennessee Titans +6 vs Buffalo Bills

It is time for the homer pick of the week as I back my Tennessee Titans +6 welcoming the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen and company come into this game after a monster win in primetime against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Now they have to head out on the road against a Titans team that has looked like a mess thus far. Tennessee has dealt with a ton of injuries thus far and are trending towards their healthiest roster of the season. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are practicing this week and look to be golden for Monday Night.

I am very happy to take the 6 points with the home team but would consider being patient. This feels like a game where those who lost on Sunday will try and those who won will keep it rolling with the Bills. If a Titans +7 pops up, be ready to pounce. 

As this is a home dog in primetime, a spot I love from a betting perspective, I don’t hate taking a look at the ML for a little sprinkle. The Titans can absolutely win this game.

Pick: Titans +6

Aaron’s Week 6 Picks

Week 5 was a little disappointing only going 2-1, but I think you’ll take it if you’re playing along at home. The Bucs won easily, and as I predicted; Brady went off for 5 TD’s. Betting against Miami is just easy money until Tua comes back and they figure out who they are. 

I did not see Darnold imploding and losing that game singlehandedly against the Eagles. Watch how he plays in Week 6 to see if this is the real Darnold coming back or just a fluke week.

My final pick was the Lions +8.5 and they almost won straight up. They almost look like they are trying to lose at this point. I don’t blame them, but they are better than the public believes.

Dallas Cowboys -3 @New England Patriots

This line is ABSURD. SMASH IT. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the league and the Patriots are barely middle of the pack. The Pats are 2-3 and have beaten the Jets and Texans. Need I say more? I shall… look for alternate lines up to -6.5 for extra winnings.

Pick: Cowboys -3

Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Steelers are still being viewed as a terrible team due to how they performed for most of the season. That might be fair, but I saw a lot to be inspired about last week with that improved O-line performance. While I like Juju, him going down may actually help this team out. Roles seem more aligned with Dionte short-to-mid, Claypool deep, and Najee as a safety valve. 

The Seahawks defense is atrocious right now. I can really see another get-right game from Pittsburgh offense dominating this defense who is trying to find their identity. Geno Smith came in and looked amazing for not playing in a long, long time. However, I’m attributing that to a veteran who was hyped up to fill-in and make it a game against a Rams defense that softened up in the 4th quarter. With a week to prepare for a lifelong backup, the Steelers should expose Geno for what he has been for his career (30 TD’s and 37 INT’s, with a 57.9% completion rate).

Pick: Steelers -4.5

Green Bay -4.5 @ Chicago Bears

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers destroy their conference opponents. Last year, they were 6-0 with a +35 total across the divisional matchups. The Bears are coming off a big win against the Raiders and are due to take a step back. Justin Fields went 11/17, 0 TD’s, 1 INT against his first divisional matchup, the Detroit Lions.

Now imagine him against the Packers down David Montgomery and Damien Williams. Khalil Herbert looked good last week, but the Packers will be prepared. I’d look at alternate lines around 8-9.5 to score some extra dough.

Pick: Packers -4.5

Good luck with your Week 6 action. And remember, never bet more than you are willing to lose.

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