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NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 5

Welcome to week five of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week we got back to our winning ways as our pick of the week was dead on, with the Jaguars easily taking care of the Jets at home.  As for our alternate picks, we went 1-1 as the Packers completely shut down the Bills, but the Falcons couldn’t hold on in the final seconds against Cincinnati.  On to week five! Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Once again, this past weekend included a ton of very exciting division games.  The Texans and Colts went into overtime, the Seahawks barely beat the Cardinals by a field goal, and the Chiefs held off a last second drive by the Broncos as time expired.  These games continue not to disappoint from an entertainment standpoint, but continue to be very difficult to predict.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
  • Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
  • Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
  • Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
  • Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

The Vikings and Rams combined for 69 points on Thursday night, the Ravens knocked off the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, and on Monday we got a thriller between the Chiefs and Broncos.  As good as the division games were this past weekend, the prime-time games were even better.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
  • Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
  • Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

While there were a lot of away teams that pulled off wins this past weekend, we also saw teams such as the Titans shock the world in front of their home crowd.  Even the Patriots showed how good it was to come home and play in front of a friendly crowd, after struggling the last two weeks.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
  • Denver Broncos at New York Jets
  • Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Carolina Panthers over the New York Giants

Every year people talk about how much talent is around Eli Manning, and every year people buy into the hype and draft him higher than they should.  Fast forward a few weeks, and every year those people regret getting the same Eli Manning who disappoints year in and year out.  The Giants seem to be struggling and I expect Carolina to roll past them this weekend with Cam leading the way.

Other options I like this week:

  • Cincinnati Bengals over the Miami Dolphins

As much as I will be cheering for the Dolphins to win this game, I know the odds are not in their favor.  Last weekend the Patriots exposed a lot of their flaws and they are missing two of their starting offensive linemen and their starting corner.  I don’t see how the Dolphins go on the road and win this one against a hot Bengals team.  I expect the Bengals to put up a lot of points in this one and I don’t see the Dolphins being able to keep pace.

  • Philadelphia Eagles over the Minnesota Vikings

For whatever reason, the Minnesota Vikings have severely underperformed this season.  With the Eagles losing a tough game in Tennessee, and Alshon and Wentz getting back up and running, I expect the Eagles to make a statement in this one.

 

Overall record: 9-3

Week 4 record: 2-1

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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