FYI  Bush and Cherney’s Fantasy Football Text

has been updated on Kindle (8/3/18)

Winning your Fantasy Football Draft 8/3/18 Edition

By John Bush

PPR Based Injury Matrix 2018

This article is heavily based on tables that display possibilities if players are injured and those are my PPR Based Injury Matrix 2018.

What are the other player’s values not in terms of Fantasy Points Per Game?

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The last article I did is referenced below and discusses the

construction of player FP/G metrics. 

Player Fantasy Points Per Game

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Team Level FP/G Injury Matrix (All 32 Teams). 

Each table block focuses on one team with all positions. I use the X symbol as a highlighter to describe an injury.

You can read the table in ARI RBs as:

• Chase is at 6.4 FP/G with no injury         (See Average of FP/g Column)
• Johnson is at 18.8 FP/G with no injury  (See Average of FP/g Column)
• Next, in the first Injury Ceiling Column, Chase has an X symbol and Johnson now has 20.9 FP/G. Read that column as if Chase is injured and out for the season Johnson is predicted to produce 20.9 FP/G. 

These data are assuming seasonal injury. If you wish to get deeper and a player if out half a season you can alter. These are the ceiling level case for all players. If Chase is going to miss half a season then his total FP points would be 6.4 times 8 or around 51 in total. Johnson would be (8 times 18.8 plus 8 times 20.9). You can estimate redraft trades etc as well. 

 

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Max Injury Improvement vs Minimum FP/G with % of Improvement.

This block of charts simplifies the injury FP/G variation limits from the team landscapes above. The data is still by team and position but now we have the minimum and maximum levels of FP/G for 2018. I also include the % of an increase in a player moving from min to max. 

For Example in ARI:

• RBs Edmonds increases by 100% with a Johnson Injury
• RBs Johnson increases by 12% with an injury to Edmonds

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Positional Injury Ceiling FP/G Rankings

These figures give a look into the “future” if injuries occur. Drafting success can be higher using these tables thoughtfully. 

Note these names do not necessarily follow current ADP. Is it any wonder that ADPs can be wrong just based on injuries.

For example, Henry and Lewis either could be 7th RBs if the other was out for the season. Note the 75 to 100% increased FP/G production based from injury. 

Cohen is at 100% increase and 13th RB if Howard is injured. Note the rankings would shift on certain players dramatically with key injuries. 

I suggested adding an injury ranking using these chart to your draft sheets. 

Henry, Lewis Howard, Cohen, Anderson, Freeman, Booker, Lynch, Martin, and Jones have high potential injury increases. 

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Note the dramatic TE possibilities from injury.  Doyle, Ebron, Goedert, Howard, and Brate have high potential injury increases. 

 

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Hill, Watkins, Diggs, and Shepard all have high potential injury increases. 

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