Player Fantasy Points Per Game

John Bush
August 16, 2018

FYI Bush and Cherney’s Fantasy Football Text has been updated on Kindle (8/3/18)

Winning your Fantasy Football Draft 8/3/18 Edition

By John Bush

Player Fantasy Points Per Game

Having an actual prediction of a 2018 Player Fantasy Points Per Game a Fantasy Player now has a foundational benchmark metric vs a simple number list. FP/G estimation allows a new way to judge player’s worth.

I developed an algorithmic method using the Public’s ADP (PPR Scoring Based) to calculate their expectations of player’s FP/G. This number can be used to estimate team, positional as well as player FP/G.

Team Strength via Average FP/G

Below is the player’s FP/G averaged by their team as well as that average scaled to league average. The tabular list (color coded) is on the left while a visual landscape view is graphed using a waterfall graphical technique of those scaled FP/G team averages.

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The top teams are KC, NYG, LAR, MIN, HOU, and PIT. Some of these teams might be a surprise. This metric looks across all positions. Those top teams have more consistently higher FP/G players or several very high FP/G players.

The lowest teams are JAC, DAL, MIA, NYJ, WAS and BUF. Many of these teams are not too surprising. These Bottom teams will tend to have fewer desirable players vs the Top teams.

Note the asymmetric distribution of the data (Skewed to the positive). The 2 extreme team KC and NYG may be overestimated by the public!

Team Positional FP/G Averages with Pie Diagrams of Positional % Within Teams

I used the estimated FP/G to drill down from the team level to positional levels in each team. What teams will have an RB vs TE vs WR focus. These data should be used to target players on teams that have higher project usages vs low usages. In general, the higher position specific teams should have multiple players that are viable while a low focused team might just one main number 1 player only as being viable.

Use this data to mark or highlight advantageous situations on your draft sheets. These data will certainly be good tiebreaker metrics.

The key positional averages are:

QB 36% Usage
RB 21.5% Usage
TE 19.4% Usage
WR 23.7% Usage

ARI ATL BAL and BUF

Comments

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ARI RB Focused
ATL WR Focused Weak TE
BAL Near Averages
BUF RB Focused Weaker WRs

CAR, CHI, CIN, and CLE

Comments:

CAR Strong TE Weak WR
CHI Strong RB and TE. Weak WR
CIN Near Averages
CLE Strong WRs

DAL DEN DET and GB

HOU, IND, JAC, and KCC

Comments:

HOU Strong QB and WR. Weak RB and TE
IND Near Averages
JAC Strong RB. Weaker WRs
KCC Weak QB Strong TE

LAC, LAR, MIA, and MIN

Comments:

LAC TE Weak. WR Strong.
LAR Strong RB. Weak TEs
MIA Near Averages
MIN Near Averages

NEP, NOS, NYG, and NYJ

Comments:

NEP WR and RBs Weak. TEs very strong.
NOS QB Strong. Weak TEs
NYG Weak QB but Strong WRs and TEs (Public missing something)
NYJ Strong QB. Weak TEs

OAK, PHI, PIT, and SEA

Comments:

OAK Strong WRs. Weak TEs.
PHI Strong TEs
PIT Weak QBs but Strong WRs (Problem here). Weak TE.
SEA Very Strong QB. Weak TEs.

SFO, TBB, TEN, and WAS

Comments:

SFO Strong QB.
TBB Near Average
TEN Near Averages
WAS Near Averages

Team Positional Usages by FP/G Proxy Metrics %

The Team metrics for each position are lined up and presented in tabular format. Top to Bottom Teams are color coded. Your drafting will benefit focusing on the top teams vs bottom teams in the specific positions. Following the tables are a graphical landscape of the league for high to the low teams (left to right)

Quarterbacks

Note the obvious surprises in the QBs.

Stafford Det Fourth Best
McCown NYJ Fifth Best
Eli Manning NYG Last but strong QBs?
Big Ben PIT Same as NYG weak QBs but strong WRs?

Find the other issues in QBs!

Running Backs

Note the obvious surprises in the RBs.

BUF RBs McCoy 4th Best
DEN RBs. 10th Best
PHI RBs 5th worst
IND RBs. 6th worst

Tight Ends

Note the obvious surprises in the TEs.

GBP 7th Best
MIA 8th Best

Wide Receivers

Note the obvious surprises in the WRs.

CLE 9th Best
NEP Last
GBP 3rd Last

Player FP/G 2018 Estimated from Public ADP.

These numbers put a solid FP number to each player. Use to establish Tiers. Use for your draft notes. The following waterfall graphs present the differences between players. What players are seemly in their own tier? I present my top 10 Tiers or so for each Position.