Key Analysis FFPC ADPs
Key Analysis FFPC ADPs. Welcome to the Process. This is part 2 of my analysis of current FFPC ADPs. FFPC (myffpc.com). This is a high-stakes fantasy football platform, and their ADP is thought to be superior to the common ADP on the main amateur websites. Therefore part of my process is to monitor these “more accurate” ADPs for my future drafting. Note these are from a TE premium environment, and thus TEs are highly valued because of the 1.5 PPR per catch reward TE’s have in here.
Additionally, I will be covering 3 parts:
- FFPC’s Team values
- Uncertainty Levels of Teams and Players (Part 1)
- Positional Rankings under uncertainty (Part 1)
- Draft Patterns of Positions (Part 2)
- Draft Picks vs Draft Patterns (Part 2)
- Positional “mountains” and “valleys” (Part 2)
- Team views of all 32 with Players Ranked under uncertainty. (Part 3)
- Provide Video Discussion of all Figures (All Parts). This increases your learning and retention.
Video Discussion of this Article
Predicted Positional Distribution using Draft Pick (1 to 12) of an FFPC Draft 30 Rounds Using ADPs.
WRs were the highest position drafted at 35% followed by RBs (30%), TE (12%), QB (10%), DEF (9%) and PK at 5%. The Draft Picks were listed at the table top from 1st to 12th. The predicted numbers of each Position by Draft Pick is shown underneath the DP number.
- DP 3, 6, and 11 were highest in DEFs drafted vs the lowest from DP 5 and 9.
- PKs were tops with DP 8 and bottom at DP 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7.
- QBs were highest in numbers drafted at DP 10 and 11 vs 1, 8, and 9th.
- RB topped out at DP 4, 5, 9 and 12th vs 6th and 8th
- TEs dominated for DP 1, 6, 12 vs 2, 5, 9 and 11th.
- WRs were the most drafted by DP 1, 2, 4, and 8 and least drafted in DP 1st, 6th and 12th.
I used these metrics in planning my general approach. If a position is scarce from my DP then I know I will had to break the ADP and natural landing point and search for that position.
Key Analysis FFPC ADPs. FFPC Overall 30 Round Draft Pattern
I suggest one use your focus to see the entire pattern for an average FFPC. When do runs, gaps, beginnings etc. happen? Regardless of players one must consider the journey as well as potential opportunities at certain positions and times in a draft.
For instance, I would not worry about a QB going in the 1 or 2nd rounds. If you draft a QB later you should have until the 10th/11th round before all QB 1 could be off the board. However, for TEs, the TE 1s will be gone by the 8th round.
Key Analysis FFPC ADPs. Deep Draft Patterns Rounds 1 to 4.
I will roll through the first 20 rounds to highlight a focus on positional patterns. I have annotated the ends of each group of 12 players from that position with a colorized box with the sector number. For example, The first 12 RBs are gone by mid-round 2 (see yellow 1) while, WR 1s last until mid-round 3.
Rounds 1 to 4:
- RB and WR 1s gone
- 6 TEs should have been taken
- Only 2 QBs gone
Draft Picks 1 to 12 in Rounds 1 to 4
You can also “see” the rounds via DPs. The information here is interesting. For example, in a 12 team, FFPC 5 teams will have gone RB RB and 4 teams would have gone RB WR. The other 3 teams would be TE WR, TE RB, and WR RB. No prediction of WR WR (Zero RB not used).
Deep Draft Patterns Rounds 5 to 8.
- End of 8 Round We are into 4th WR Level
- 12 TEs gone
- 4th Level of RBs
- 7 QB Gone
Draft Picks 1 to 12 in Rounds 5 to 8
Interesting aspects here are 2 of the 12 took 3 RBs and 3 WRs. 4 Teams continue to stock pile RB and WRs. No TEs going in Round 5 but 5 TEs gone in the next 3 round. Round 5 is a spot to get a jump on the remaining TE1s. 5 QBs gone making 7 QB gone in the first 8 round. You still have a shot to get one of the 4 QB1s remaining.
Deep Draft Patterns Rounds 9 to 12.
WRs are now going faster than RBs as we enter and get close to the end of the 5th level of WRs. 21 TEs are also gone. You are now into picking up a spare TE play. RBs are into the 5th level mid way and bargains, handcuffs, deep rookies, and sleepers are in these rounds. Do research and prepare for RB depth plays. Finally, all QB1s are gone and we should plan to pick up a spare QB in the next rounds.
Deep Draft Patterns Rounds 13 to 16.
Again we have key Takeaways.
- Almost all 6th Level WRs are gone Deep Player only left. Research essential.
- 3rd Level TEs are here. Only in TE premium leagues
- 6th Level RBs. Injury handcuffs and deep rookies. Hard to find a top play
- 2nd Level QBs are moving. Find a spare to your QB1 or streaming partner.
- PKs and DEFs begin.
Deep Draft Patterns Rounds 17 to 20.
Finally, Depth Players are RB and WRs. DEF and PK continue
List of Assumed RB1/RB2/RB3 Players
Reference List of Assumed WR1/WR2/WR3/WR4 Players
Reference List of RB2 as Fitted into the RB 1 List
Additionally, K Hunt a RB2 is the Best RB2 and is equal to J Williams of DEN as a RB1 type. You can see where thee FFPC ADP places the RB2 of J Robinson/Mostert/Gordon/Pollard/Connor as bottom end RB1 types in worth.
Reference List of RB3 as Fitted into the RB 2 List
Next, G Bernard is the best RB3 and in FFPC is valued at D Evans (TEN – RB2 level). White/Mitchell/D Williams/Mack/Breida/ etc are all RB3 with low RB2 value.
Fit of WR2 and WR3s into the WR1 List
FFPC has Cooper equal to A Robinson, Chase to Jones, D Johnson to Kupp etc. Juju at WR3 is valued like the low WR1 of D Smith etc. Interesting blending here and more overlap in WRs. I suggest the FFPC is less certain at the bottoms of WR1s.