Half-Point PPR Rankings with Risk

By John Bush
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Updated: August 18, 2017

Half-Point PPR Rankings and Risk By Position

Half-Point PPR Rankings are shown in the following Figures 1 to 10. The player, team, position and bye week are listed. The Half-Point PPR Rankings rankings are my own metric rankings from 100 (high green) to 0 (low red). Listing each player on a similar scale allows you to compare between positions. Again your predraft work can use these scaled rankings for planning. The next metric is my own Risk level. I use broad analysis to achieve this risk ranking. (Low Risk, Mid and High Risk).

I included aspects of the team, team historical positional usages ( see links below) variations in draft opinions etc. Think of my risk as projections.

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(https://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/10/positional-ppr…2013-16-part-1/)

(https://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/12/positional-ppr…2013-16-part-2/ )

( https://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/14/positional-ppr…2013-16-part-3/),

Note low risk does not necessarily mean the best! A low ranked RB5 could have low risk because the price you paid is about the price that player is. The opposite is a low ranked RB5 with high risk is one that has a broader range of outcomes from not playing or could moved up due to skill or injury the team’s RB depth chart.

For example in drafting Defenses, the top 6 have a higher risk than NE. Translate this to mean NE defense is the safest of the top 7 but may not ever be better than seventh. Houston could be the best defense but given their players, SOS, team coaching they could as be lower than NE. It’s a measure of chance, do you draft in a risky way or are you more conservative? My ranking can be used to fit your style of play!

Figures 1 to 10. Half-Point PPR Rankings with Risk Analysis.

Deeper Team Risk Analysis Player Aggregation Metric.

Figure 11 illustrates each team’s overall risk pool. I aggregated all the draftable players, assigned risk levels and constructed this table with a simple player count within each risk level (High, Mid,and Low Risk). The grand total is the total player count by team. The % H and % L are the percentages of team players in the high vs low risk levels. I finally give you a H/L metric for your top-down view of each NFL teams higher risk player pools. For example CHI has the highest player risk pool with 50 while GB has a nice low 2.9 On average players drafted from CHI are 17X as risky as GB players in Half-Point PPR Leagues!

Figure 12 shows the H/L area graph of each team. This area graph clearing shows the levels of player risk across the spectrum (high to lowest). Use this to break ties in similar ranked players!

Team View of Player Half- Point PPR Rankings and Risk Category

The final set of figures (Figures 12 to 29) sort each player into their team for a team comparison. You can in a glance “see” the player and where they fit into the Team’s depth chart. Also their risk level is show by either being in the High Risk, Mid Risk or Low Risk Column.

Use these data to think about WR crowding (see link below), team risk pools (Figures 11 and 12) and tie breaking decisions.

(https://www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/06/wr-crowding-an…17-predictions/ ‎),