Category Archives: Value Up-Value Down

Value Up-Value Down: Week 14

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The time for lecturing is over. If you’re reading this article you have made your fantasy playoffs. Congratulations to you. Since you’ve advanced this far, I have to assume you know what you are doing. Maybe I should be listening to you (just kidding……….kind of).

By now, you know what it takes to put a winning team together. I am just here to be your consultant and give you that little added push you need to get over the hump. In the playoffs, anything can happen. All it takes is one bad week by you or one great week for an opponent and you are done.

With that being said, don’t start getting all cute. You know who your studs are. You rode them to where you are now. Don’t go benching them just because the match up doesn’t look great. Also, don’t over think things. Just because you are going against Andrew Luck doesn’t mean you should play Coby Fleener over Julius Thomas to try and cancel Luck out.  It doesn’t work like that so don’t hallucinate momentarily and believe it does. Just stand pat, don’t be crazy and keep doing what you’ve been doing. Obviously, you’ve done something right because you’re amongst the final few. It’s going to take a little luck, but a fantasy championship is well within sight!

Here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember, as always, I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose……but at this point it’s difficult not to be.

Value Up:

Nick Foles - Four straight solid weeks has me convinced Nick Foles is an elite fantasy QB option going forward. With Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago left on the schedule, there isn’t much to fear. In fact, that has to be one of the best roads ahead of any QB. Aside from Manning and Brees, the argument can be made that Foles is the next most reliable option moving forward. Still interception free on the season, there isn’t much downside to throwing him out there. Nick Foles: elite QB1 throughout the playoffs.

Shane Vereen - As if Vereen’s hype wasn’t through the roof already, Ridley’s benching along with Blount’s fumble troubles have taken it to a whole new level. Yes, Shane Vereen has become the go-to back for New England. Along with his elite receiving skills, he will now see a significant portion of the carries. The state of the RB position for fantasy purposes is in shambles, so Vereen catapults up the rankings. In PPR formats, there are literally only a handful of players I’d rather own for the rest of the season (Charles, AP, Forte, McCoy and Lynch are really the only ones I’m sure about). If you bench Vereen in any of your final three match ups, you didn’t really want to win a championship anyways.

Joique Bell - Reggie Bush is really struggling to fight off a knee injury. He also fumbled last week, but unlike if he played for many other teams, he didn’t get benched for it. Still, running the ball down the Packers’ throat was clearly Jim Schwartz’s game plan: even though Bush had a monster game, Bell also had 19 carries for 94 yds and a TD himself (to go along with 3 REC for 34 YDS). Bell is a legitimate FLEX option this week even if the hobbled Bush plays. If by some chance Bush misses this or any other week, Joique Bell becomes a high-end RB2 at the very least. Great handcuff moving forward and sold FLEX play.

Andre Holmes - Somehow, someway Holmes emerged as the top pass catching option for the Raiders in week 13. He hauled in 7 catches for 136 yards. Unfortunately for his owners, Denarius Moore should be back this week. It’s hard to fully endorse Holmes for that reason, but in deeper leagues, it’s not the worst idea to ride the hot hand. McGloin found a receiver he likes so maybe he will continue to find him. That tends to happen with young quarterbacks; they find their go-to guy and immediately find chemistry with them that lasts. Take for example Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson when they first started. All the attention helped Stevie evolve into a good receiver. I’m not sure that will be the case here, but there is a chance, so keep Holmes on your radar. If he has another big week this week, I think we have to believe.

Value Down:

Carson Palmer - Five consecutive weeks with at least two touchdowns. Pretty awesome streak he’s on right now, so why would his value be down? The only reason is because he is currently dealing with an elbow injury. I do not want to rely on a QB with problems on his throwing arm in the fantasy playoffs. He was kind of a borderline starter in the first place, so despite this torrid pace the past few weeks, I can’t use him this week. The matchup is below average anyways (Rams allow the 12th least fantasy points to opposing QBs) so I’d just avoid if I could.

Frank Gore - RBBC. Absolutely the last thing a fantasy owner wants to hear in the same sentence with their fantasy RB. San Francisco’s RB carries have become like roulette; you never know who Harbaugh’s mind is going to land on to send into the game. Last week was the first time in four weeks that he found the end zone. Even so, he only totaled 49 total yards. Guess what? Things won’t get any easier for the 30 year old this week at home vs Seattle (7th ranked defense against opposing fantasy RBs). I doubt you can expect a TD from him this week, and if he scores, it probably won’t come with many yards. In fact, Gore combined for just 30 total yards in the first meeting. Avoid if at all possible.

Rob Housler - Seems like he may have been 2013′s flash in the pan. Housler was activated, had a nice stretch of 10+ PPR FP in 3/4 games and now is sinking by the week. As you read earlier, Palmer’s throwing hard is hurting. Now Housler is dealing with an ankle injury of his own. If you added him thinking he’d be your rest of season answer at tight end, well, think again. He’s listed as questionable for week 14 but fantasy owners should list him as “out” of their starting lineups. I’d much rather go with someone like Jordan Cameron or Jared Cook.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 13

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Crunch time. I’m not talking about the exact moment that you bite down on your Kit Kat bar nor am I creating a phrase for urbandictionary that would be defined as having crack cocaine for lunch. I’m talking about week 13 in your fantasy football teams; a week where all team’s final destinies are determined. (If you stopped reading after the phrase “crack cocaine for lunch,” seek help immediately)

Week 13, like selling drugs, is all about risk/reward. If you’re a team in first and just need to hold your lead in total points to be rewarded the one seed, then you probably won’t be taking any risks. Similarly, let’s assume you decide to just sell small amounts of marijuana on the side. Playing it safe, because you just want to make a little money and stay where you are in life, would be like just selling it to your friends. On the other hand, if you are in a win or go home situation in say the 7th seed, you may want to make riskier decisions. You would then become the Walter White of fantasy football and need to resort to utter insanity immediately.

Whether you are selling a little dope or constructing an elaborate meth lab, we all have the same goal in week 13: win! If we don’t win, only bad things can happen, so let’s make sure we’re 100% smooth this week. Getting caught in the standings, or getting caught by police, it doesn’t matter. Both scenarios suck and are not something we want to deal with.

PSA: Stay off drugs kids……..that was just my fun little metaphor. We at FakePigskin promote a clean, substance free life!

Here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember, as always, I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose……but at this point it’s difficult not to be.

Value Up:

Carson Palmer - Here are quarterbacks ranked according to fantasy points per game over the last 4 weeks: Foles, Brady, Stafford, Roethlisberger, Brees, Wilson, Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer. Yes, somehow, someway, Palmer has worked his way into the QB8 spot over that span and QB1 consideration weekly. Arizona (and Bruce Arians) realizes their run game and offensive line have flaws. With Housler back and healthy, the team’s strength is their arsenal of talented pass catchers for Palmer to throw to. Between Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts, Rob Housler and Andre Ellington, Palmer has all the options he could possibly want/need to be successful. The results have been consistent production lately and with Philadelphia and St. Louis on the horizon, I expect those to continue in the near future. In fantasy football, the near future is all we have left, so continue roll with Palmer as a QB1.

Josh Gordon/Jordan Cameron - Isn’t Brandon Weeden just the worst? He didn’t learn from that underhand flip that got him benched earlier in the year as he came in shortly afterwards and did it again. Weeden is impatient, inaccurate and just honestly not very good……….so why would you want to own Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron? Well, Josh Gordon has proven time and time again this season that he is quarterback proof. His combination of size and speed makes him a WR1 regardless of who chucks the ball inaccurately at him. Cameron on the other hand hasn’t been so quarterback proof, but Weeden at least looks for him. Cameron accrued 10 targets last week although he ended up with only 3 catches for 32 yards. I expect Weeden to keep looking for safety valves from here on out and who better than his gigantic TE? Cameron may be a little hit or miss, but the sheer volume of balls he should see will make him a low TE1. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on a streak of scoring in 2/3 games because he is talented and receiving looks. The Cleveland Browns aren’t the world’s most exciting team but they do hold some diamonds in the rough.

Brandon Bolden - I don’t understand why some coaches decide to bench their best players after one fumble. Did you watch the Thanksgiving games? Reggie Bush fumbled early and Schwartz continued to roll with him after. Guess what? He had a monster game and won the stupid turkey award (whatever it is). Unfortunately, Bill Belichick doesn’t feel the same way. To be fair, Stevan Ridley’s fumbling has become an issue. With his fumble last Sunday, he had now lost a fumble in three straight games. The Patriots then brought in the back up LaGarrette Blount and he fumbled. Finally, in to the rescue came Brandon Bolden. In my opinion, Bolden is more talented than Blount and he’s more suited for a featured role. Blount has speed and agility limitations that Bolden does not (as much). Ridley can’t be trusted moving forward meaning we could see a steady 12-15 carries for Bolden. If you’ve been looking for a FLEX in a 12 teamer, Bolden is your man. He’s still on the Patriots so temper expectations from week to week due to frustrating changes in rotation.

 

Value Down:

Robert Griffin III - Ahmad Brooks said it best, “he shouldn’t be playing right now.” Griffin is a shell of his former self having probably come back too soon from ACL surgery. He gets the lowly Giants next week but he just cannot be trusted. If you have any sort of decent option, I would try and avoid. I want someone reliable to be leading me to and through the playoffs, and Griffin just cannot provide that kind of stability. Lower him to mid tier QB2.

Darren Sproles - Unfortunately, Sproles’ role in the offense has become too unpredictable. Thomas has taken over some of the pass catching responsibilities that used to be all be Darren’s. Coming off injury next week, we’re not sure if Sproles will be at 100%. Even if he is, he has been nicked up a whole lot this season which is to be expected due to his tiny size. He still plays in the explosive Saints offense and has game changing ability, so I wouldn’t necessary bench him. However, consider him a FLEX option moving forward and no longer an every week RB1 or RB2.

DeSean Jackson – Jackson’s situation is similar to Sproles. Both game changers whose roles have kind of been overtaken by outside sources (Riley Cooper). Both play on decent offenses so you have to continue to roll with them but have to temper expectations. Once catch can make your fantasy day for Jackson but I’ll be skeptical each week as to whether that play is coming. I consider him a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3……..with the ability to be a WR1 on any given reception.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 12

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Playoffs are officially visible in the horizon. As you have been driving over the regular season mountain, the post-season has officially appeared over the top. Similar to driving over a mountain, finishing the regular season strong takes some extra power…….except this is brain power.

The trade deadline likely has expired in your league. Adjusting your roster through the waiver wire is the only option left. For that reason, staying ahead of the curve is key. In this week’s version of Value Up-Value Down, I’m going to try and find the guys still available on waivers that may win you a league. For giving you players owned on somebody else’s roster probably serves you no good at this point. You’re welcome.

Here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember, as always, I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose……but at this point it’s difficult not to be.

Value Up:

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Okay, so admittedly you have to be in a pretty bad situation to consider the Harvard product, but hear me out. Fitzpatrick has one of the best quarterback schedules remaining: @OAK, @IND, @DEN, ARI and @JAC. By team, here is how they rank against the quarterback position in fantasy (out of 32 teams): 22, 13 (but have allowed 2+ passing TD in 3 of the last 4 weeks), 25, 18 and 30. Besides great match ups, he has the ability to beat teams with his underrated legs. He has had at least 26 yards or a rushing TD in all four games he has started this season. Combine favorable schedule, his somewhat dual threat ability and his developed red zone rapport with Delanie Walker, and you have a usable QB down the stretch.

Knile Davis - As the backup on a team that has Jamaal Charles, obviously something would have to happen to him for Davis to gain value. Just imagine he does go down though. I mean this is football and one hit has taken Charles out before. Fully entrenched as the backup, Davis is one simple play away from being a starter and a pretty committed running team. The Chiefs offense cannot succeed if they give up on the run. Dink and dunk type offense is easily defended if they can’t establish a run game. Therefore, adding him down the stretch makes sense, because he could be an important piece of a good offense if something were to happen. His 3.6 YPC doesn’t compare to Jamaal Charles’ but he is a nice, cheap insurance policy.

Dennis Johnson - Ben Tate has been playing through broken ribs. Other than that, Johnson is in a semi-similar position to Davis. Currently, he has little to no value, but trading season is over. However, the Texans’ offense is not quite as effective running the ball this season but also the starter is already hurting. All it will take Johnson is one wrong hit to the ribs for a setback so this one seems a little more reasonable.

Mychal Rivera - Finally Rivera’s consistent targets paid off. If you haven’t checked lately, Rivera has had one week all season under 3 targets. He has seen 5+ targets in two of the last three weeks and this week was a big one: 5 catches, 54 yards and a TD. McGloin will once again start at QB this week. Hey, Rivera has as many TD under McGloin in one week as he did with Pryor in 9 weeks.  If you are looking for a sleeper TE start once again this week, Tennessee is the 25th ranked defense against fantasy TEs. I believe the risk will be worth the reward.

 

Value Down:

Case Keenum - After his benching last week, Wade Phillips/Gary Kubiak and fantasy owners alike can’t trust Keenum anymore. In an important fantasy week, he crapped the bed. Knowing that the team isn’t fully committed to him despite, in theory, being their QB of the future is disheartening. I’d still start Andre Johnson and Ben Tate with confidence regardless of QB, but I’d prefer someone like Carson Palmer down the stretch if you are a low-end QB type of guy.

Knowshon Moreno - Montee Ball’s emergence is really, really annoying if you are a Moreno owner like I am. For the whole season he has been a borderline top 10 running back but yet John Fox has let Ball become at the very least the team’s Mike Tolbert. Ball vultured 2 TD last week and 3 total in the last 3 weeks. If Moreno isn’t finishing off drives with the TD, he is nowhere near as valuable. If he doesn’t start doing an impression of his early season self once again, he can no longer be valued as an RB1 even though he plays on the right offense.

Julius Thomas - Two Broncos in value down? “You must be nuts Ricky!” Well yes, I am, but that isn’t the point. Thomas’ knee problems seem like they are getting worse by the week and have him in jeopardy of missing week 12. Now don’t go dropping him or I’ll slap you (just kidding…..just needed to type that to add in the link) but worrying is warranted. I’d add Joel Dreesen just to give yourself a sense of relief because it’s hard for a guy blocking 300 pounders to not use his knees in the game. If they aren’t game-ready he is going to sit for at least one week.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 11

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We’ve all heard the saying, “even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.” When I stop to analyze this, I think it’s like that statistic you always hear: if you lose one sense, it enhances all your others. The blind squirrel actually has somewhat of an upper hand because he can smell that nut much better than the rest of this squirrel brethren. As you all know, I am a hoops fanatic. My obsession has caused me to spend less of the week looking at football statistics and more time focusing on basketball. I have basically removed one of my fantasy football senses: the statistical analysis aspect. Lately, I have just been watching the games closely and relying on what my eyes tell me……..and you know what? It has worked.

Last week we nailed Rishard Matthew’s value going up, mostly from just watching trends during the game before. This week, we will once again be digging deep and giving you a few players to discover before the rest of your league. While this, of course, is value up-value down, some of the guys I give you may be sitting on waivers with no intention of being added. If you see something or someone in this article you feel strongly about, don’t be shy to add and start these players on a whim.

Here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember, as always, I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose……but at this point it’s difficult not to be.

Value Up:

Ryan Tannehill - I know what you are thinking: the guy just lost 2/5 of his offensive linemen to a ridiculous scandal. How can his value actually go up after that? Easy, the team abandons the run. Lamar Miller is a solid talent but the team can just not run block. For that reason, Tannehill will have no choice but to throw the ball 40+ times a game like he did last week. Tannehill actually has 2+ TD in 3 of the last 4 weeks. Rishard Matthews emerged as his go-to possession receiver last week. I think that trend continues which helps Tannehill sustain some consistency. For that reason, I like him as a solid QB2 and injury replacement if your main QB (Aaron Rodgers) went down due to injury.

Andre Brown - All it took was one carry……..one stinking carry………for Brown to take over as lead back. Peyton Hillis touched the ball once, fumbled and that was that. Despite a 3.8 YPC, Brown made the most of his opportunity by producing 115 yds rushing with a rushing TD on 30 carries. He even caught a pass for 4 yards. With David Wilson out for the season, Brown really doesn’t have any competition when healthy. He is a legitimate RB2 even in PPR from here on out because of sheer volume. Also, he is safely implanted as the goal line back. If you own him, there really isn’t much to worry about with him but the match up on a given week.

Bernard Pierce - Coach John Harbaugh announced this week that he will ride the hot hand in the running game. Ray Rice is averaging just 2.5 YPC this season. If the starter is averaging that small of a total, you’d think the backup should be able to run with the starting gig, right? Well, unfortunately, Pierce is only averaging 2.8 YPC himself. To be fair, the offensive line is terrible. I heard Greg Cosell talk today and he said that they’re playing about as bad as you can play. Even so, if Pierce somehow can get the hot hand (especially this week against the struggling Bears defense) he will be worth using. The Ravens badly need to establish the run, so maybe just maybe, Pierce can be the answer.

Marquise Goodwin - Steve Johnson and Robert Woods have already been declared inactive this week. Antonio Cromartie only shadows true #1 WRs. Marquise Goodwin is not scaring anyone, so he should see a variety of corners looking his way. With that being said, Goodwin has game changing speed and it only takes one play for him to make him a worthwhile fantasy play. I believe he gets one of those this week and will be worth flexing in all 12 team leagues.

Darius Johnson/Levine Toilolo - The Falcons list Harry Douglas as questionable this week. He actually returned to practice Friday which is a good sign. However, both he and Tony Gonzalez are clearly banged up. If they are playing at less than 100%, or especially if they don’t play, that will mean added opportunities for Johnson and Toilolo. Johnson has already been taking snaps away from Drew Davis (especially last week). Toilolo, if both happen to be out, should be a solid bet for a RZ target or two. They are shots in the dark, but Matt Ryan has to throw to someone besides Roddy White if the other two are inactive. These are your best bets in that hypothetical.

Rob Housler - A Regan Yant faovrite, Housler has been showing signs of life recently. In the past 4 games, Housler has seen less than 5 targets just once (1 in week 8). Palmer doesn’t get a whole lot of time from his offensive line and made Brandon Myers a fantasy stud last season. If Housler stays healthy, Palmer will continue to look for him. I think he could be a low end TE1 to high end TE2 in PPR for the rest of the season. Most importantly, he gets Jacksonville this week, so if you are iffy about your TE situation, he could be a great alternative.

 

Value Down:

Terrelle Pryor - Currently suffering from a knee injury, Pryor says he actually felt worse today (Friday) than he did yesterday. Already in a terrible slump, Pryor hasn’t thrown a TD pass in the past 3 weeks. He does have 2 rushing TD in that span, but 2 TD in 3 weeks just isn’t getting it done. If a pure rushing QB has a knee injury, well, he’s unstartable (I think I made that word up). Avoid at all costs this week even if he plays.

Eddie Lacy - The loss of Aaron Rodgers hasn’t just effected the WRs: Lacy tallied his lowest YPC in a game since week 1 last week. I don’t believe that was a coincidence. Without having the threat of Rodgers, teams are just going to stack the box and try and stop Lacy. Rodgers masked the offensive line woes that Scott Tolzien just doesn’t. The combination of a below average offensive line and a one trick pony type offense spells bad news for Lacy in the near future. Don’t trade him, but downgrade expectations.

Martellus Bennett - Cutler was the QB who made Bennett fantasy friendly. Bennett is now suffering from an ankle injury. It’s looking like a true game time decision which obviously is a fantasy owner’s worst nightmare. Marty B hasn’t tallied more than 36 yards since week 6. He’s trending downward so sell him while people can still see his nice start in their rear view mirror.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 10

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Thumbs up or thumbs down?

“What goes up must come down,” is what the band Chicago taught me. Whether it be the the stock you just purchased, your personal fitness level around age 20 or the value of your fantasy football players, the saying is true. Now, more than ever, properly valuing your players can literally be the difference of you winning or losing significant amounts of money (assuming you are a degenerate like the rest of us).

We are now entering week 10, which is probably the most important stretch of the fantasy football season. Hopefully if you added waiver guys such as Joseph Fauria or Dexter McCluster, you immediately sold high on them. On the same note, hopefully you realized early enough that Julius Thomas and Giovanni Bernard looked great and bought into them. By now, we have a great gauge on the players who started the season in the starting lineup. These days, the tough ones to value are players like Mike Brown and Marquise Goodwin who are just filling in for injured/suspended alternatives. Those are the guys I’m looking to properly value in this week’s piece, so sit back, relax and enjoy the literature.

Here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember, as always, I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose……but at this point it’s difficult not to be.

 

Value Up:

Nick Foles - It’s hard to not use Foles as my QB with in the value up section for this week. He was as good as dead in fantasy circles only to shock the world with seven touchdown passes. Oakland’s passing defense wasn’t exactly in shambles considering they had allowed 403 yards passing and one passing TD in the previous two games. Foles will be an underdog to even throw for 5 passing TD in another game this season, but surely has won the starting QB job for the foreseeable future. He gets the very average Packers’ secondary this week so roll him out there once again.

Rashad Jennings - Wait, Darren McFadden is hurt again? I don’t believe it! I swore this would be the season he stayed healthy! Haha, just kidding, those words have never been spoken before. Sorry, I’m just being a dick. Anyways, after McFadden went down, Jennings had a helluva game: 15 carries for 102 yds and TD along with 7 REC for 74 yards. Have a day, kid! We already know DMC did not practice on Wednesday leading me to believe he will not play on Sunday. The team tends to be cautious with their starting, injury prone tailback. Jennings should be a safe bet to receive the start Sunday with the chance of getting 2 or more in the near future.

Andre Johnson - Why did it take Houston quarterbacks so long to figure out that Andre is beast all over the field, especially in the red zone? He’s 6’3, 230 lbs and has some of the best ball skills in football. Now that Case Keenum recognizes him as a beast, he should produce as a beast from here on out. Legitimate WR1 the rest of the way…period.

Mike Brown - If you expected anything more out of Justin Blackmon, then you probably had unreasonable expectations. Clearly he has an addiction to something although I’m still trying to figure out exactly what substance it is. Either way, Mike Brown immediately becomes pick up worthy in all 12+ team leagues. Even with Blackmon in town the last three weeks, Brown has recorded at least 3 REC and 43 yards. In that stretch, one game was 5 REC, 120 YDS and another was 3 REC for 43 YDS and a TD. We all know the Jaguars are garbage time heroes and always play from behind. This guy is just the next man up in a fantasy friendly passing game. His name may not be “sexy,” but the production will be there from here on out.

Rishard Matthews - You may have never heard of this guy before this article so remember where you heard this name first. Matthews has been getting some looks since Brandon Gibson went down to season ending injury. He has 10 targets in the last two games. According to rotowire, however, he has zero end zone targets in that span. I have watched nearly every Dolphins snap and I believe that statistic to be untrue. With my own two eyes, I saw him receive at least 2 targets in the end zone during that stretch. Either way, I believe Tannehill starts relying on him consistently. I admit he’s better suited for PPR leagues due to his weak yardage outputs so far, but he’s someone to keep an eye on. Don’t be surprised if he emerges as the #2 WR over Hartline at some point, or at least as the red zone target. I think he has a good chance of scoring this week at Tampa. If he does, remember where you heard the name.

Zach Ertz - The obvious guy’s value to announce as up would be Riley Cooper after his monster week. Let me assure you, it is. I wanted to touch on someone under the radar however in Ertz. Two tight end sets can be frustrating but Foles has been way more inclined to use his large weapons than Vick. Ertz is the more talented player so I think that wins out. It has lately: Ertz has 9 targets to Celek’s 7 in the last two weeks. He also has 6 REC for 47 YDS and a TD to Celek’s 5 REC for 44 YDS and a TD. I’m not saying he’s a stud by any means, but if you need a injury or bye week replacement in a deeper league in the short term, he could be your man. Also, keep an eye to see if he can win a larger majority of the snaps in the upcoming weeks.

 

Value Down:

Jake Locker - Just when we all had Locker pegged as an every week start, he lets us down. Week 9 ended a streak of at least 299 passing yards and 2 TD or 3 total TD for three consecutive weeks. Locker doesn’t exactly have the world’s greatest weapons and the run game looks like it’s about to get going. While it was no holiday to own Locker this week, he does get Jacksonville next week. If you started him this week without bye issues, then you might as well start him next week. If he doesn’t produce against the Jaguars then you officially can’t trust him.

Ray Rice - This just isn’t his year. In 0.5 PPR leagues, Rice ranks 33rd among all backs in fantasy points. In 8 games, he has 3 total TD, all of which have come via the rushing variety. Having a history as a PPR stud, he still has 27 REC in half a season. I just don’t see the explosiveness anymore. If I own him, I am looking to sell for what I can get. Someone like Le’Veon Bell or Stevan Ridley would be a gift right now in some sort of 1 for 1 deal. Ray is just about a middle of the road RB2 for the rest of the season in my estimation.

Torrey Smith - Just like Rice, Smith too is a member of the overall disappointing Ravens offense. Over the course of the last three games, Smith has just 18 targets or 6 per game. That is fine but isn’t exactly elite for fantasy purposes. He also only has 9 receptions in that span (3 per week) and no touchdowns. C’mon man. Marlon Brown seems to take the red zone looks, and as I predicted before the season, Smith just isn’t a reliable WR1 in fantasy (or for his own team).

Jordy Nelson/James Jones/Jarrett Boykin/Andrew Quarless - I think you should be able to connect the dots here: the loss of Aaron Rodgers hurts all of his receivers’ value. The combination of Seneca Wallace and Matt Flynn won’t be enough to sustain consistent value for any of them. Kick them all down a few notches as maybe the best one (Jordy Nelson) is only a mid tier WR2 for the moment…..if that high. Aaron, please come back soon.

 

Value Up-Value Down: Week 9

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Thumbs up or thumbs down?If a freak accident occurred and I happened to, say, fall off my roof, then I would still be expected to return to work as soon as I could walk. In this theoretical situation, I am not quite sure how I ended up on the roof but work with me here. Working behind a desk/computer for the most part just requires mental capacity.

Football players, on the other hand, have a much higher required health level to make it through an entire, hard hitting game. You won’t find me walking on any roofs anytime soon, so the odds of my ridiculous scenario occurring are slim to none. Football players put themselves in scenarios far riskier on every damn play in an NFL game. It’s no wonder that we’ve come to week 9 and are having problems getting active players into our lineup.

Players such as Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb, Julio Jones and Doug Martin have suffered injuries that will cost them at least this week (and much more for some of them). Other players just suffer from the dreaded questionable tag. Either way, fielding a full lineup has become more difficult. For this reason, we need to be damn near perfect in catching healthy players when their value is on the rise. We also need to be getting rid of withering players when their value has expired.

I hope the injury bug hasn’t struck your team. Whether it has or hasn’t, pay close attention to the information I’m about to provide you with. Here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

 

Value Up:

Andy Dalton - Somehow, someway Dalton now has back-to-back-to-back 3+ TD games. The emergence of Marvin Jones has certainly helped Dalton spread the ball around and make the offense a whole lot less predictable. With the receiving core having a Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffrey feel to it, I actually really like Dalton going forward. Also, emerging rookie Tyler Eifert is getting better by the week. Considering all the weapons Dalton has at his disposal, I wouldn’t be shocked if he continued to be a low-end QB1 for the rest of the season. Don’t forget he finished as QB12 last season.

Alfred Morris - Remember when Roy Helu was emerging as the lead back after his 3 TD performance? Turns out that must have just been a game plan invoked fluke performance. Morris received 17 carries for 93 yards and a TD in week 8 as compared to Helu’s 6 total touches. As long as the Redskins don’t get down big, Morris will have a big role in the offense just about every week. If they do happen to be getting killed, Helu will see an increase in action. The Redskins do have a pretty terrible defense, so if you own Morris, you must just sit and hope they stay competitive every week.

Dexter McCluster - This speedy, formerly under-utilized slot receiver has led his team in receiving in back-to-back weeks. Finally, he caught his first touchdown (a 28 yarder), and actually ended up leading his team in targets. It’s been a long time coming for McCluster to find a consistent role in the Chiefs’ offensive. He is one of the most explosive players in football and Kansas City’s offense is the exact opposite. For a team that links to dink and dunk, McCluster’s speed is a game changer. I think Reid has found a weapon he likes and will continue to go to him in the immediate future. I wouldn’t consider him a WR3 just yet, but with another solid week he will be in the conversation.

Timothy Wright - Since he’s emerged as the starting TE, he’s kind of seemed like Mike Glennon’s safety blanket. Now that Mike Williams has been put on IR, I’m positive he is Glennon’s go-to guy in a bad spot. Obviously, Vincent Jackson is his #1 WR, but you can’t throw to him on every passing play (although Glennon sometimes tries). Wright is way more valuable in PPR leagues, but the Williams news gives me confidence in him as TE2. If you are hurting with injuries or bye week blues, you could do much worse than this Tampa Bay tight end.

 

Value Down:

Robert Griffin III - What’s the scariest part about owning RGIII or any of the rushing quarterbacks? If you answered the possibility of injury, then you are correct! Last week, Griffin had one of those weeks cut short by injury. Unfortunately, he injured the same knee that he injured (torn ACL) in last season’s playoffs. Griffin has been semi-disappointing while he’s progressed from that injury, so this set back makes it even worse. If you took a shot on drafting Griffin as a top 5 upside top QB, well, it’s not going to happen. If you have him you probably have to keep starting him, but I’d look to move his name value before your league’s trade deadline. I want/need a reliable fantasy quarterback.

Willis McGahee - Willis is a volume type runner. Lately, he hasn’t gotten the volume he needs to be successful. His carries in the last three weeks are 10, 11, 9. Now today he missed practice to rest his sore knees. For a player averaging 2.9 YPC, I can’t advocate starting him on any given week with those workloads. If he’s not getting around the 26 carries that he was given in week 5, then he is borderline useless.

DeSean Jackson - Well, Michael Vick is hurt yet again. Nick Foles is prepared to start this weekend. Sadly, Foles is actually an upgrade from Matt Barkley. Jackson clearly has the best chemistry with Vick and Vick’s strong arm fits best with Jackson’s skill set. It’s now been two weeks since he scored his last TD, and the poor QB play from Foles doesn’t have me excited about the future. Unless we see a great improvement from Foles, I am downgrading Jackson for the rest of the season. He is still a boom-or-bust type WR2, but I can’t consider him a WR1 in this situation.

Rob Gronkowski - From a 17 target, 100+ yard game to a 2 catch, 27 yard performance. The NFL truly is a week-to-week type league. In no way am I telling you to bench or trade Gronk, but rather to realize he is not fully healthy and Tom Brady has been playing terribly. To be fair, he did have a 40 yard TD negated by a penalty further proving you need to play him every week. Just don’t pencil him in for 20+ fantasy points on every given week because the situation isn’t as great as it was last season…………not yet.

 

Value Up-Value Down: Week 8

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Bums: a term used commonly to describe people who are “employment impaired,” shall we say. Yes, this word is used to describe people who society has given up on, and no longer have a home. At one point these people probably did, but a couple of bad decisions landed them in the streets.

These people are easy to distinguish: they’re usually dirty, wandering and carrying either a trash bag or shopping cart (or both). As mean as it seems, most of us end up avoiding these people at all costs. Even if they are smiling and walking towards us, we turn and walk the other way. We realize it’s probably not the right thing to do but we do it anyways.

In fantasy football, we have bums of our own. They actually operate with many similar qualities: they once were roster-able but we’ve since given up on them and sent them to the streets. When someone offers them to us, we hesitate to click decline because they once were considered very talented and usable.  The problem is bums are harder to distinguish from the pack in fantasy as opposed to reality.

Seven weeks are now in the books in the NFL. We have plenty of information to go on at this point. Still, there are some guys that we are having a hard time deciphering whether they are wearing dirty clothing because they’re homeless or just went for a run in the forest. Here are a few examples:

Marques Colston - Carrying windshield wiper fluid and a broom. He’s headed our way. Is he going to try and clean our car or is he really an employed fantasy janitor coming to sweep away all our problems?

Ray Rice - Wearing one of those stoner, knit pullovers. Doing it because he’s given up or because he needed the padding (like he’s going to do to our fantasy scores)?

Dwayne Bowe - Passed out on a bench. Has he given up on the 2013 season or just sitting there getting extra rest because of the beat down he’s about to unleash on the Cleveland defense?

These are the difficult questions we must now tackle. Most of it comes down to gut calls and what kind of value you can trade these players for. The earlier you can identify the bums, the less you will have to worry about them ruining your day. Having to even look at them (or their names) can do that to a person. If you don’t have to stare at them on your team, out of sight and out of mind.

All that being said, here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

 

Value Up:

Michael Vick - It’s been a roller coaster type season for Vick so far this year……..just like every other season for him. After beginning the season as the starter, Vick injured his hamstring which opened the door for Nick Foles’ huge weeks 5 and especially 6. After playing absolutely miserable to start the game vs. the Cowboys this week, Foles suffered a concussion mid-game. Matt Barkley came in and looked as bad or worse. Basically, Chip Kelly has no choice but to start Vick if he’s healthy. When Vick is on the field, he puts up nice fantasy numbers. Just pray that he makes it through a full game. If he does, you’re golden.

Jake Locker - Many of you may not realize this but Locker is the third best fantasy QB per game since week 2. In his last three games, he has had either 299 yards passing and at least 2 TD or 3 total TDs. For those of you who waited on QBs, Locker is turning into your every week answer. He has developed a nice rapport with both Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker. Locker’s injury was a fluke so I’m not particularly worried about a reoccurrence. Make no mistake about it, Locker is worth considering in all 12 team and deeper leagues.

Mike James - EVERYONE RUN TO THE WAIVER WIRE. THERE IS A STARTING RUNNING BACK AVAILABLE THEREFORE YOU MUST ADD HIM, right? WRONG! Sure, he’s going to have some kind of value being that he is a starting back. I agree those don’t come along too often. However, let’s think about this logically: Doug Martin couldn’t even run behind this staph infected, below average run blocking offensive line. What makes us think James will? No doubt James is worth owning just in case he surprises us, but he’s someone I’d rather add and trade to the Doug Martin owner.

Chris Ivory - I projected this week that Ivory would begin to take touches away from Bilal Powell. Even I didn’t think the distribution would get this crazy lopsided. Bilal Powell received three touches while Chris Ivory received a whopping 35 touches (34 rushes, 1 reception)!!! Rex claims he was just playing the hot hand but I don’t believe him for a second. Coaches are just pranking us sometimes with the things they say. The Jets paid Ivory in the off-season and just needed him healthy to let him loose. Now that he’s loose, there is going to be no containing him. Expect him to be the lead back until his next injury.

Eddie Lacy - I now dub thee a top tier fantasy running back. You hear that? It’s done. Close the books on it. Lacy has earned a full workload in a strong offense and has produced week in and week out. He has three straight weeks with 20+ carries and is averaged 4.4 YPC in October. In an offense that will be in the red zone often, he is clearly the goal line back. Lacy is a top 10 running back from here on out. Value him as such and target him in trades in every single league that you are in. If you miss out on him, you’ll be pissed (the link is not nearly as bad as you’d think haha).

Lance Moore - What a “cowinky dink.” Moore arrives as Jimmy Graham exits (most likely) the lineup with injury. For years, Moore has been a reliable target for Drew Brees. In fact, Moore came before Graham, therefore he has seniority (okay, not really). If Moore plays and Graham doesn’t, I think he earns his way back into a trustworthy role. Regardless, the fact that he’s healthy puts him on the radar in all 12+ team leagues. The Saints offense just has so much production to go around and Moore could be the deep threat (specifically, he could run some fly routes…..okay this statement in parentheses admittedly was only so I could fit in that gif somewhere and actually doesn’t make a whole lot of sense). If you don’t want to add him, at least watch him closely.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - “Next man up” is a commonly used phrase amongst NFL coaches. It means when one guy gets hurt or stumbles, the next guy needs to be ready to step up and fill in. Guess what? Reggie Wayne went down this week with a torn ACL. DHB, you’re the next man up. Remember a few years ago DHB actually was a viable possession type receiver with Carson Palmer. He’s not the most exciting pick up in the world, but he should have a consistent role in this offense that only features boom-or-bust T.Y. Hilton.

Jordan Reed - Reed’s exciting breakout week came to a crashing halt when we learned he suffered a hip pointer. Injuries like these occasionally keep players out for a week or two like it did for Ray Rice earlier this season. Wait a second, Reed came to the rescue early this week! Reed assured us as fantasy owners that the hip pointer would not slow him down or keep him out this week! Alright, back to loving him as a free agent pick up! Reed looked like the #1 option in the passing game over Garcon this week. I’m curious to see if that continues moving forward.

Anthony Fasano - In the preseason, I had Fasano pegged as the top fantasy tight end on the Chiefs. Unfortunately, he suffered knee and ankle injuries early in the year that cost him four weeks. Per his return this week, his impact could be seen clearly.  Sean McGrath was just some guy that filled in and their draft pick TE Travis Kelce is out for the year. Fasano by far has the best hands of any of the TEs left and provides a big body for Alex Smith in the red zone. Don’t be surprised if he scores 2 TD in the next 3 games as he earns Alex Smith’s trust. Safety valves are the key of any Alex Smith driven offense and Fasano fits the bill.

 

Value Down:

Tom Brady - We all thought Rob Gronkowski’s return would be the slap in the ass Brady needed to wake up. Disappointing had been an understatement so far but we thought we envisioned brighter skies ahead. Turns out that was not to be. For the second time in the last three games, Brady didn’t throw a TD pass. Even worse, he’s thrown over 1 TD pass just three times in seven games. He’s just not getting it done this year in terms of fantasy. The Dolphins make for another below average match up for Brady leaving little hope that this is the week. At this point, you might as well ride out the slump. You probably don’t have much of a choice anyways.

Adrian Peterson - Read my lips, Adrian, “we need you to be a top tier fantasy back.” Peterson is having a tough go at it because of a fluctuating QB situation. There is no stability there whatsoever and everyone to take the helm sucks. This week, the Giants routinely put eight in the box and just begged Freeman to beat them. He didn’t. Teams will continue to do this as long as the Vikings QB situation continues to be horrific. Basically what I’m saying is, AP is screwed unless he can have consistent success against stacked boxes moving forward. Still like him as a top five back, but that’s about where I rank him……#5. Oh and by the way, rumors are floating around that his hamstring problems are much worse than the team is leading on. Just something to keep an eye on.

Joseph Randle - Fantasy owners drooled over Randle as a waiver wire hero after the announcement of Murray’s MCL sprain. Already, Murray is back at practice, although it’s on a limited basis. What we thought might be a semi-extended absence looks like it will be two weeks at the most. Randle’s performance was mediocre as he tallied 93 total yards and no TD. He’ll be an okay option this week against Detroit but his shelf life probably won’t last much longer.

DeAngelo Williams - Williams is just never going to find the end zone. Tolbert is the full time TD vulture in Carolina. The return of Jonathan Stewart is on the horizon which means a time share could be back in play. DeAngelo hasn’t done a whole lot by himself so adding a body to the backfield isn’t going to help. I’m just selling him at this point and letting him be someone else’s headache.

Zac Stacy - Sam Bradford is out for the season. If you don’t remember, the Rams offense was a mess before Bradford’s injury. Now that he’s gone, I’ll let you in on a little secret: it’s going to get worse. I don’t want any part of this offense moving forward. Period.

Demaryius Thomas - Every week seems like a contest for targets between Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Welker gets his looks every week and Thomas gets his fair share of red zone looks. Lately, Decker has caught Peyton’s eye continuously before DT. In the past three weeks, Decker has been targeted 29 times to Thomas’ 20. Of course, in a Peyton Manning led offense everyone will still get theirs in some, way, shape or form. However, going forward, I think you’d be foolish to consider Thomas above and beyond the better fantasy asset than Decker. Thomas still holds top 10-15 WR value, but no longer can he be considered the top 5 we started to think at the beginning of the year. There are just too many mouths to feed, and lately, he’s been eating last.

Miles Austin - I’m afraid the hamstring problems just aren’t going away. Terrence Williams is running away with the second wide receiver job in Dallas. Just like this giant hog, Austin is toast. It looks as if he is going to be shut down indefinitely, assuring fantasy owners he can be safely dropped. Not much else to say here.

Marlon Brown - The return of Jacoby Jones seemed to drastically effect Brown’s usage in the offense. In week 7, Brown was targeted just four times although he caught all four. His four targets were his second lowest of the season and the 22 yards were also his second lowest output. I think his reign as the clear #2 is over and Brown and Jones (7 targets, 4 REC, 32 YDS and a TD) will continue to eat away at each other’s value making both unreliable starts.

Kyle Rudolph - Reread the section on Adrian Peterson. The QB situation is just terrible and Rudolph has been boom or bust since last season. If you own him, you definitely want to own another reliable TE because just having Rudolph will drive you crazy. I don’t consider Rudolph a TE1 going forward, so make the move to get someone better if you don’t already have one. As a matter of fact, I consider Rudolph permanently banned from TE1 consideration until the Vikes find someone better than Ponder, Cassel or Freeman.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 7

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“Ugh,” you mutter softly to yourself while looking at the screen on your treadmill. It seems like you have been on the machine forever and sweat has begun to take over your shirt. Somehow, someway the screen tells you that only half your workout has been completed so far.

That’s where we stand in fantasy football: chugging along with a heavy, sweat-drenched shirt but realistically nowhere near done. Week 7 marks the regular season more than halfway over but there is plenty of work to be done.

Stopping a run short is incredibly disheartening. It makes you feel like you have unfinished business. You feel lazy and have a lot left to be desired for your health. Honestly, it could be one of the worst feelings in the world.

Let’s not let this happen to us in fantasy football. We can’t have ourselves running at a solid pace and taking our admirable spot in the standings for granted. If we give up and stop worrying about our teams, our run can come to a disappointing end. Your team can run out of air and press the stop button frantically. We don’t want a wheezing fantasy football team. We want a sustained winner.

With that being said, we need to continue changing how we value players on a week-to-week basis. No more relying on Trent Richardson or Doug Martin as a sure thing RB1. No more looking at Keenan Allen or Justin Blackmon as risky options best left for waivers. No, let’s adjust so we can make it all the way until the “Cool Down” option turns on.

All that being said, here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

 

Value Up:

Nick Foles - Who needs Michael Vick? If Foles keeps playing like this, Vick will be left in the rear view mirror. Foles threw for 297 yards, 3 passing TD and even scored on the ground in Vick-esque type fashion. Previous to this week, Chip Kelly seemed hesitant to assure Foles of anything. After last week’s performance, the coaching staff now says they’ll monitor the situation on a week-by-week basis. Whether he keeps the job or not, Foles has a monster match up this week against the 32nd ranked Cowboys defense vs. the quarterback. Pick him up and start him if you are in a pinch. If he plays well once again, you may have found yourself a gem.

Thaddeus Lewis - Um, who saw this coming? Well, Regan Yant did. The 25 year old from Duke actually was signed off the practice squad to start week 6. All he did was throw for 216 yards for 2 TD and rush 7 times for 17 yards and a 3rd TD. I took a look back at Lewis’ college numbers and they were pretty impressive. He led the ACC in passing TDs his senior season with a 134.5 QB rating. He only completed 58.1% of his passes in college however and never recorded a rushing TD. So while his week 6 opened the eyes of fantasy owners, I still need to see more before I am a believer. On the plus side, he gets the 21st ranked defense vs. quarterbacks this week, so if you’re feeling lucky……

Joseph Randle - DeMarco Murray’s sprained MCL and Lance Dunbar’s continued battle with a hamstring injury have opened the door for the rookie Joseph Randle. Randle gets the chance to become a man in the fantasy world in the next few weeks. The Cowboys’ ground game has been surprisingly effective this year, and the weak Eagles defense is next on the schedule. Randle will obviously have to improve on his 1.5 YPC from Week 6. Hey, he found the end zone last week and will continue to be the goal line back on a high powered offense. You could do worse at RB this week.

Stevan Ridley - Ridley made his fantasy owners happy in week 6 by bursting out of the doghouse with a huge performance. Belichick surprisingly supplied Ridley with a season high 20 touches which led to 96 rush yards, 2 TD and most importantly no fumbles. I don’t think Ridley is a slam dunk to hang onto the job, but as long as he doesn’t fumble the odds are in his favor. LaGarrette Blount just isn’t nearly as talented. Just keep your fingers crossed if you are a Ridley owner because any mistake could result in him riding the pine.

Chris Ogbonnaya - Fullbacks really haven’t been a big part of the fantasy game since Mike Alstott. Ogbonnaya’s 15+ points in two of the last three games in PPR scoring says he’s trying to bring them back. Although Cleveland Browns fans are nuts, you wouldn’t be crazy to own Ogbonnaya at this point in deeper reception-based leagues. “Bananas” led all backs in targets with 12 last week and is 4th among all backs over the last 4 weeks with 24 targets. Who are the only backs targeted more often during that span, you ask? Jamaal Charles (37), Danny Woodhead (29) and Darren Sproles (29): three of the biggest PPR studs there are.

Chris Ivory - As a fantasy owner, I never root for injury. Now that one has occurred to Mike Goodson, however, we must react accordingly. Ivory had already been named the goal line back although the coaching staff seemed to back off on that during the game. With one less back in the picture, Ivory’s chances of seeing work increased greatly. Powell is really just another back and really isn’t very impressive. To his credit, he has yet to make any huge mistakes so far. If that is his greatest strength though, is that someone you really want to continue to start? They paid Ivory the money, it just makes sense that they would get him the ball. Make sure you roster Ivory in most leagues at this point, even if it’s only out of speculation, because talent has a funny way of working itself out.

Mike Tolbert - Speaking of goal line backs, the bowling ball rumbled, bumbled, stumbled his way into the end zone twice this week. DeAngelo Williams just is never trusted to carry the ball anywhere near paydirt. The Panthers have always been more willing to trust Cam or Mike Tolbert carrying the ball at that part of the field. For that reason, Tolbert will always be worth a desperation start on any given week at RB because he can always find the end zone. If you’re absolutely screwed and backed into a corner at the RB position, you almost have to add him.

Jarrett Boykin/Jordy Nelson - My preseason article on Randall Cobb‘s chances of coming to fruition crumbled, along with Cobb’s knee, on the hit he took this weekend. On Monday, the Packers placed Cobb on IR-eligible to return, meaning he’s out until at least week 15. James Jones was also injured this weekend and is considered doubtful to play on Sunday. Jordy Nelson immediately rises to the top of the depth chart, assuring he should see a ridiculous number of targets from here on out. Jarrett Boykin is the next man up and saw a whopping six targets in roughly three quarters of a game. He did drop two passes in the first half, but with a week of practice working with Aaron Rodgers, expect much improvement from here on out. I think Boykin is immediately a useful WR4 in 10-12 team PPR leagues and a solid WR3 in 14-16 teamers.

Vincent Jackson - Overcoming the transition from Josh Freeman to Mike Glennon apparently isn’t such a difficult task after all. Jackson’s 14 targets and 35.9% target percentage ranked 3rd and 4th among WR in week 6. When a young QB locks onto a WR, it usually is for an extended period of time. Jackson is a huge target with nice speed so it’s hard to imagine why you wouldn’t target him. Finally, the team realized V-Jax is a great red zone option as they sent 100% of the targets in that area his way. For most of the season, Mike Williams had been dominating those targets. Expect this trend to continue for at least another week, so Jackson is a top 10 start against the 28th ranked defense (Atlanta) vs. opposing fantasy WR.

Kyle Rudolph - If you retired Rudolph from fantasy relevance, it’s time you reconsider. “Rudolph the red zone reindeer” racked up 9 catches for 97 yards and a TD this week, which was easily his best game of the season. Now Josh Freeman steps in as starting QB for the Minnesota Vikings. If you recall, Freeman made Kellen Winslow fantasy relevant last season. Rudolph is far more talented and even a bigger target. I expect Rudolph to hold top 10 TE type value as long as Freeman is running the show.

 

Value Down:

Eli Manning - How a guy has a receiving core as talented as the Giants and isn’t in the top 12 of QBs in fantasy points per game I’ll never know. This is a hall of fame QB we are talking about in all likelihood also. The offensive line just has too many injuries and Eli just isn’t feeling it this year. Maybe he’s been sending too many late night text messages lately.

Brandon Bolden - Penciled in as the team’s passing down back when Vereen went down, he hasn’t exactly flourished in the role. At this point, Vereen is scheduled to be back week 11 which is getting closer and closer. He just doesn’t have the talent or the hands of Shaney-V, so there’s almost nothing to see here. I would have to be in a 16 team league with Steven Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw and DeMarco Murray-type injury problems to consider starting him.

Le’Veon Bell - Offensive line play is essential to a RB’s success. If guards don’t pull in time on runs to the outside, not even Adrian Peterson can succeed at a high rate. For a rookie back like Bell, it’s near impossible to succeed with terrible line play. The Steelers have one of the worst and it’s going to hurt him going forward. He should see all the goal line carries which assures he’s still worth owning and starting, but temper expectations especially against solid opponents. Oh by the way, he gets the #1 defense vs. opposing RBs this week (Ravens).

Golden Tate - Russell Wilson has surpassed 210 passing yards just twice in six weeks this season. As a result, all of Wilson’s receiving targets have suffered. Percy Harvin’s return is right around the horizon. Immediately, Harvin will become the #1 target in the passing game when healthy. Just not good news all around for Tate who is a must-bench. You can even go ahead and cut him in small leagues for someone with more upside.

DeAndre Hopkins - Schaub is hurting. Hopkins has 7 catches in the last three weeks. Tight ends usually get the red zone targets in this offense, although Hopkins received two last week and didn’t convert either. Until I see production out of Hopkins, he will be tough for me to recommend. I wouldn’t cut him in deeper leagues because he can develop a rapport with his QBs still. This ultra-talented WR will pull out of this rut at some point, I’m just not sure when it will be.

Jermaine Gresham/Tyler Eifert – These two have been sucking value out of one another like a vampire would to a neck. Unless one of them goes down with injury or a suspension, neither are worth owning. Eifert has solid upside in dynasty leagues, but is safely droppable in re-draft. Unless Gresham is doing the Oklahoma drill, he is borderline useless.
Hope you enjoyed the article! If you need more information now, follow me on Twitter @RSanders85.

 

 

Value Up-Value Down: Week 6

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Waking up on Sunday morning, everything seemed like normal for Calvin Johnson owners.  The sun had risen, birds were chirping and most importantly there still was no zombie apocalypse. While enjoying their morning coffees, owners turned on the TV to watch their favorite NFL pregame show. For the sake of this story, let’s assume it was ESPN and people were tuning in to watch Adam Schefter preach to them.

Then something happened. Skies darkened, lights began flickering and a thunderous silence filled the air (okay, maybe that was just for dramatic effect). Adam Schefter came on the TV and shocked the hell out of the viewing audience.

“Calvin Johnson is inactive”

WHAT? NO! How is that even possible? Practice reports all week were as they always are with Calvin: no practice on Wednesday and then limited the rest of the week. That has become common practice with Megatron. Honestly, as a Calvin owner, nothing seemed out of the ordinary. I, along with all his other owners, was absolutely crushed.

What went wrong? Who knows. Detroit is being cryptic with this injury which is starting to scare me. One thing is for sure: I am downgrading Calvin Johnson until further notice. Megatron always plays through pain and hadn’t missed a game since week 17 of 2010. If this pain actually was enough to keep the big man out, then it probably isn’t something minor. Reggie Bush already came out and said the team is preparing as if Calvin won’t play this week. While that doesn’t mean he’s not playing, it’s not a good sign either. On the flip side, Browns’ coach Rob Chudzinski says the team is preparing as if Calvin is playing. In all honesty, this could be a front and Jim Schwartz could be preparing for him to play. I mean Calvin did say he was “close, real close” to playing last week. Either way, this injury scares me and we will not have an answer until Sunday morning it seems. If you can get Dez Bryant for Calvin at this point, I would make the move. In fact, I have both Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant ranked ahead of Calvin moving forward. It just seems like there is enough going on with Calvin to worry, so you may want to sell him at fair price if you can get it………especially if you are 1-4 or 0-5.

All that being said, here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

Value Up:

Tony Romo - BOOM BABY! Holy Romo explosion! 506 yards and 5 TDs but yet all the media can talk about is the one interception he threw. C’mon man. In the NFL, if you score 48 points, you’ve done enough to win. If you can’t win from there, that’s on your defense. Romo proved he was up to the task against an elite team and guess what? The teams in his division are terrible. He still plays five games against his division which are three of the worst teams/defenses in football. I’m sorry but Romo is a borderline elite fantasy QB…..whether you like hearing it or not.

Pierre Thomas - Looks like someone relishes Mark Ingram’s absence. In week 5, Thomas didn’t exactly make the most of his 16 carries (36 yards), but he out Sproles-ed Sproles. Thomas led the running back tandem in receptions with 9 for 55 yards and 2 TD. Sean Payton has always trusted Pierre Thomas and now he’s letting him run away with the lead back role. Darren Sproles no doubt still has value because his blazing speed is an absolute asset, but Thomas is multi-talented in his own right. While I wouldnt’ go too crazy trying to get Thomas, realize he has the potential to be a top 20 back in this Saints’ offense. Just know that Sproles still received half the carries in the red zone this week, so the TDs will be inconsistent.

Willis McGahee - RBBC? What you talkin’ bout Willis? 26 carries, 72 yards and a TD later, we have ourselves the new Michael Turner. Is there going to be huge upside? No, probably not considering the YPC won’t be there. McGahee is not really an explosive runner. Like other bruising backs, however, McGahee will get the tough yards which will make him effective. Beginning to look like a younger McGahee, he should be able to get around 4 YPC on a million carries and specialize around the goal line. As long as he is getting goal line carries, he is worth a start on nearly any week. You can’t predict touchdowns but you can predict who would get them if they’re going to occur. McGahee is your man as a RB2/FLEX if you need one.

Andre Ellington - Scat backs are becoming the new fad of the NFL. They remind me of the football version of hats with the sticker still on. Ellington looked like the more effective back this week. Actually, Mendenhall seems like just another guy. I have to assume the explosiveness Ellington showed earned him an every week role in this offense. It brought a new element that it had been lacking: a home run threat. Fitzgerald is just old reliable at this point and isn’t really the big play threat he once was. Ellington is: just like Sproles, Woodhead and to some degree, Roy Helu. These guys have nice value in PPR leagues in fantasy, and this week Ellington put himself on the map.

Harry Douglas/Levine Toilolo - Remember the kids who were the last pick in gym class? Well, Harry Douglas and Levine Toilolo once upon a time were the last pick for coach Mike Smith to throw to in the Falcons’ offense. Unfortunately for the Falcons, all their top picks in gym class suffered injuries this season. We are now witnessing the all-replacement offense in Atlanta. Still, Matt Ryan is a good enough quarterback that there will be some production to be had. The top beneficiaries will be Harry Douglas and Levine Toilolo. Douglas will be a PPR, move the chains type receiver better suited for deeper leagues. Toilolo is a 6’8 target that probably will get most of his looks in the red zone. From here on out, he may be something resembling Kyle Rudolph from last year (but the lite version). Both have value in the right situation, whereas last week they didn’t.

Pierre Garcon - Giving RG3 a week off just can’t be a bad thing. So far this season, he’s seemed timid towards running but I believe it’s because he hasn’t been 100%. He probably shouldn’t have been playing in the first few weeks of this season, so more time to rest should help. With that being said, the healthier he gets, the better news it is for his #1 target: Pierre Garcon. It’s not like Garcon has been quiet so far this season. In every game this year, Garcon has caught at least 6 passes and gone for at least 64 yards or a TD. If RG3 can buy time with his legs in the pocket, that should give Garcon more time to get open down field. If and when he does, he could be even more of a monster. Yes, Garcon may have top 5 WR upside for the rest of the year if he stays healthy.

Terrence Williams - Dez Bryant is a beast, but every super hero needs a sidekick. If you need a reliable sidekick, it’s harder to be more reliable than converting all 4 targets for 151 yards and a TD. Miles Austin’s hamstring issues never go away. Seriously, three things you can rely on are death, taxes and Miles Austin’s hamstring flaring up. Even if Austin comes back, he’s one wrong step away from three more missed games. Romo is developing a nice rapport with Williams, the former third round draft pick. If Williams continues to impress, I think Miles Austin will become a forgotten entity in this offense.

Justin Blackmon - Eat my shorts, Cecil. That’s what Justin said to his receiving mate on Sunday in regards to who really is the team’s top pass catcher. While Blackmon received one less target than Shorts (10 to 9), he made the most out of it. When all said and done, Blackmon recorded 5 receptions for 136 yards and a TD. Surprisingly, the Jaguars actually completed three passes of 20+ yards between Blackmon and Cecil Shorts including Blackmon’s long TD. Blackmon is clearly an elite talent having been selected 9th overall in 2012. Considering the Jaguars are always behind, Blackmon should get plenty of volume thrown his way. Seeing that Blaine Gabbert will be sidelined for a while, the odds of him converting those targets just became increasingly likely.

Garrett Graham - Let’s do the math: Graham was the 13th highest scoring fantasy TE after last week and Owen Daniels was #10. Owen Daniels now goes down and there’s really no other TE worthy of targets. Can you do that sort of arithmetic in your head? Okay, let me clarify then: Garrett Graham should immediately become a top 10 fantasy TE. All the TE targets will be flying his way, and considering all Schaub does is look to TE in the red zone (6 of 8 passing TD for the Texans have been to the TE), Graham should prove to be a waiver wire gem.

Rob Gronkowski - Could it be? Could it really be true? Could the man so many teams have been relying on as their fantasy savior finally be ready to take the field? All indications say yes. Multiple reports say Dr. James Andrews just needs to clear Gronkowski as the final step but he is expected to play for the first time this season. Immediately pencil him in as a TE1. Anytime Gronkowski suits up, he is a threat to go for 2 TD. Looking at the lack of options around him, he essentially has  to be the team’s look in the red zone. Don’t think Brady has forgotten about him. Starting this week, Gronkowski will once again be terrorizing your fantasy opponents. Consider yourself lucky if you’ve stayed afloat while waiting because your investment is about to pay off in a huge way.

 

Value Down:

Cam Newton - Um, I thought he was a running quarterback? Exactly four rushing attempts in two of the last three games? Last year he averaged about eight. If Mike Shula truly wants to take Newton’s biggest strength out of the playbook then he’s just another guy. Sometimes offensive coordinators amaze me. TAILOR YOUR OFFENSE TO THE PLAYERS, NOT TO WHAT YOU’RE USED TO! THAT’S WHAT BEING A GOOD COORDINATOR IS ALL ABOUT! Sorry for that rant, but I had to get it out. In terms of where I’d value Cam for the rest of the season, he’s holding at about the 12-15 QB range until I see improvement. The good news is the next two games should be the perfect elixir to turn things around (@MIN, STL).

Trent Richardson - Maybe he’s just not as good as we all thought he was. Most drafted him in the first round as about the RB9, but maybe he’s more in the RB12-14 range. Everyone thought the switch to Indianapolis would turn his career around but so far, so bad. His YPC actually decreased from 3.4 in two games with Cleveland to 3.0 in three games with Indy. Things don’t get any easier this week as San Diego is allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. I’d sell him in a PPR if I could get someone like Reggie Bush for him.

LaGarrette Blount - I was fooled by one long run in week 5. LaGarrette Blount is what LaGarrette Blount is. If you don’t know how to take that, let me fill you in; it’s not good. Blount averaged 4.25 YPC on 12 carries but he doesn’t catch passes and with Ridley back his goal line role is questionable. If I had to rank Patriots backs the rest of the season, I’d go Ridley, Vereen, Bolden and then Blount. As soon as Ridley is back, don’t hesitate on sending LGB packing.

Bilal Powell - Ugh, Mike Goodson and Chris Ivory were unwanted visitors for Powell owners. From week 5 to week 6, Powell went from a workhorse back to just one of three in a committee. Goodson made the most of his touches, averaging 10+ YPC (on 3 carries) and 1 REC for 9 YDS. Ivory also saw 4 carries and averaged nearly 7 YPC. Sure, Powell is still the guy for now, but his upside is now severely capped. Powell’s upside in fantasy was because of the pure volume and now his volume should reduce significantly. Outside of a FLEX in 12 team leagues, I’m losing interest quickly.

David Wilson - Neck problems (a must watch video) have transformed Wilson’s terrible year into virtually a lost year. Wilson owners can’t just go find a replacement either. Brandon Jacobs and Da’Rel Scott are both pretty terrible. I’d advise going to get Andre Brown now if he is still available in your league. Wilson has had to battle for Coughlin’s trust this year, and now will have even a tougher battle against a injury to a tricky part of the body. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are extra cautious with him and Andre Brown returns to the field sooner than he does.

Roddy White (and obviously Julio Jones) - By now, I’m sure you all have heard Julio Jones is out for the year with a re-aggravation of his 2011 foot injury. I won’t even go into why that means you should downgrade him. I assume all of you reading this are intelligent enough to figure that one out. Roddy White, however, suffered a hamstring injury in week 5 unrelated to the high ankle sprain he had already been dealing with. For those hoping that the bye week was timed perfectly and would limit damage, well, guess again. Reports say Roddy White will miss multiple games with this new injury. I don’t know what to say about this one. You’re going to have to wait it out because selling White at this point will net you nothing. Good luck.

A.J. Green - Will the real A.J. Green please stand up? In three of his last four games, he’s recorded 61 receiving yards or less without a TD. What’s going on here? This is supposed to be an elite WR who can take anybody. In fairness, in those three games he was matched up against Ike Taylor, Joe Haden and Aqib Talib; three of the best cover corners in football. He should turn things around this week against Buffalo, but if he doesn’t consider me officially worried.

Coby Fleener - I’m like the kiss of death. It seems like all the guys I write on value up end up in value down the following week. Every week is an absolute surprise as to whether we get a blow up or dud from this Indy TE. Fleener has three complete duds out of five, so I can’t trust him as an every week starter moving forward. He, like most other tight ends, is a weekly match up play.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 5

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Two of life’s greatest aspects are anticipating an upcoming event and food. One of the best moments you can experience is combining the two and trying out a new restaurant that your friends rave about. The beginning of the fantasy football season is nearly the same phenomenon. Let me explain.

Looking forward to the upcoming fantasy football season gets the juices flowing. You get so amped up to arrive at the fantasy football “restaurant” that the excitement itself is fulfilling. Sometimes, however, disappointing events can occur, temporarily ruining your experience. You hear this restaurant has the greatest steak dish of all times. By the time you show up, you are famished, so you order the soup first. The soup shows up at your table and you take a sip.

“Ewwww,” you think to yourself. Is this place really as good as you’d hoped it would be? Utter disappointment fills your body even though your full experience is not over. You’ve already given up on this well respected restaurant before the main dish is even served. Well, a bad appetizer at a great restaurant is the equivalent of a bad start to a good fantasy football team. We are only through four weeks and some people are already jumping ship. You haven’t even made it to the fantasy football entree yet, the first four weeks have just been a disappointing appetizer. Please, don’t give up.

Face it, most of the time a restaurant is raved about, the place turns out to be excellent. Your juicy, savory meal finally makes it to your plate. You take one bite; immediately, your faith in humanity is restored. Now you remember why you were so impatient on the drive over. This place rules! Well, my example can be your currently disappointing fantasy football team. Don’t rush to dump all value your fantasy team has to offer. Instead, take advantage of other owners still relying on players’ draft position to determine value. Look to trade some of your underperforming or inconsistent players for surprising up-and-comers. For only by staying optimistic will your crappy appetizer turn into a delectable overall 10-3 type meal.

All that being said, here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

Value Up:

Philip Rivers - So Phil Rivers is a has-been, huh? Through four games, including two against top ten ranked defenses, Rivers has thrown under three touchdowns just once. He’s sporting a hefty 11:2 TD to interception ratio. The thing I find most encouraging is he’s utilized all his different weapons. One week it’s Eddie Royal and the next it’s Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates. Rivers has proven in the past that once he gets hot, he has the ability to sustain it over an extended period of time.

Darren Sproles - Look who woke the sleeping giant (okay I can’t even type Sproles and giant in the same sentence with a straight face). All last week, I tweeted (@RSanders85) that this was the week Sproles would finally produce for his owners. Guess what: Brees didn’t forget about the little guy. He’s clearly supplanted as the #3 option in the passing game and the preferred back used in the red zone by Sean Payton. Sproles is, and always was, a top 10-12 PPR RB. Don’t expect that to be his last 7 reception or 100 yard receiving game of the season.

Le’Veon Bell - In a triumphant return, Le’Veon found pay dirt twice. See what happens when a back with any resemblance of talent steps foot into the Steelers’ backfield? The other backs proved Bell has zero competition as long as he is healthy. Expect the one man show to continue for Pittsburgh, making Bell a legitimate top 15-20 RB in all formats moving forward.

Isaiah Pead/Benny Cunningham/Zac Stacy - Good job, good effort Daryl Richardson. Coach Jeff Fisher gave Richardson every opportunity to run away with the lead back job, but like the rest of the offense, he stunk it up. I guess 2.7 yards per carry wasn’t enough through 42 carries. Now, Fisher says he’s leaning towards using the dreaded RBBC. It’s anyone’s guess as to who emerges from here. In the short term, my guess is Benny Cunningham offers the most value for just week 5. Over the course of the season, I think one of Pead or Stacy emerge as the best back in St. Louis. I’m just not quite sure which one to recommend.

LaGarrette Blount - I hadn’t even considered using the term “explosive” in the same sentence with LaGarrette Blount, aside from maybe his right hook, before this week. After watching Blount look like he was shot out of a cannon in his 47 yard TD run this week, I’m back on board. For the second consecutive week, Blount led the Patriots in rushing and has looked like by far their best back. Bill Belichick is watching the same thing we are. Blount doesn’t fumble at the rate Ridley does which could force the coach’s hand. It is very possible we are witnessing the former fantasy wasteland LaGarrette Blount becoming the Patriots’ lead back.

Wes Welker - Welker’s value was already up after his hot play and commercials, but now it is through the roof. Formerly known as just a possession receiver, Welker now finds the end zone every week. Here are his TD by week: 2, 1, 1, 2. Clearly this Broncos team is poised to be one of, if not the, best offense in history. As the move-the-chains guy along with the added red zone responsibility, he is absolutely elite. Don’t go trading him for guys such as Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald who were drafted ahead of him.

Robert Woods - E.J. Manuel has made his decision: Robert Woods is his wide receiver of choice. Woods has had one week of under 10 points in a PPR so far and it was against the #3 ranked Jets defense. With eight targets in each of the past two weeks and Stevie Johnson’s hamstring injury flaring up, Woods is an absolute must-add if he’s available. Should be more of a WR 1A and 1B type situation for the Bills instead of a clear #1.

Marlon Brown - Guess who found the end zone once again? If you’re keeping score at home, that’s now 3 TD in four games. If you were worrying about Jacoby Jones coming back, literally every week has eased that concern more and more. Although Jones practiced today, when he returns he will be nothing more than a deep threat and kick returner. Meanwhile, dancing in the end zone is where you will be able to find Brown.

Jeremy Kerley - Santonio Holmes was diagnosed with a hamstring injury and could “be looking at a month” of inactivity. Stephen Hill’s status is “up in the air” for Monday’s contest with a concussion, and the New York Post is already reporting he’s not expected to play. That pretty much leaves Jeremy Kerley as the last man standing. While he’s not a big guy or extremely talented, he should be looking at a healthy amount of targets from Geno Smith. In a PPR, you could absolutely do worse.

Delanie Walker - Lets not write him off just because he plays for a Titans team turning to Ryan Fitzpatrick for at least the next four weeks. Walker has gone for at least 40 yards or a TD in every game so far this season. I’ll admit it’s not great, but it’s definitely usable in a deeper league. If you’re hurting at tight end because of Kyle Rudolph or Heath Miller’s byes, give Walker an extended look.

Coby Fleener - Fleener bounced back from his second awful game of the season with his second solid game. In a one tight end system with his college quarterback, Fleener presents too much upside to be left of the bench. Andrew Luck will continue his way in the end zone, and at 6’6, he will continue to find him.

 

Value Down:

Colin Kaepernick - Does 49ers’ offensive coordinator Greg Roman realize Kaepernick is his quarterback and not Alex Smith? The way they’ve been calling plays lately, it’s hard to tell if he actually comprehends this. Seemingly doomed to run a dink and dunk type offense led by Frank Gore, Kaepernick needs to show his big play-making ability again before we can trust him. As an offense gets more conservative, the players involved in the passing game have their upside evaporate. To make matters worse, I tweeted a stat earlier this week that shows Kap clearly favors the right side of the field. When throwing to the left size of the field, of all the zones (short, medium and long), Kaepernick’s highest QBR is 26.9 throwing short. Talk about being easy to game plan for. You can essentially cut off half the field. It’s only a matter of time before his opponents figure out the same thing.

C.J. Spiller - Spiller’s value is down even further this week after another injury. He was given a full workload this week (23 carries) and couldn’t produce (77 yards). I mean even Fred Jackson got injured this week and Spiller still couldn’t gain some value out of it. With every passing week, it’s looking more and more like 2013 may just be a lost season for the once highly sought after Bills’ back.

Doug Martin - Zero touchdowns since week 1 even though he’s received 100% of the team’s red zone carries? 3.4 yards per carry for the season? A rookie quarterback now running the show? Combine all of the above and you have a recipe for disaster. If you drafted Doug Martin number two overall, it’s time you temper your expectations. You’ll be lucky if he ends up as a low end RB1. I’d be more comfortable valuing him as a high end RB2 moving forward considering the state of that miserable offense/team/organization.

Joique Bell - Still worth stashing, Bell took a back seat to the show Reggie Bush put on against the Bears this week. Bush still is injury prone so Bell is obviously a must-own. However, as long as Bush is healthy, it looks like Bell may need to get into the end zone to provide owners with solid value. Considering how hard it is to actually predict touchdowns on any given week, I don’t recommend starting Bell as long as Bush is on the field.

T.Y. Hilton - Three duds in four games? Didn’t see that one coming as I was one of the highest analysts on T.Y. preseason. Hilton seems like he’s being used as purely a deep threat. Hilton will have his big games when he unleashes a big play, otherwise will probably provide a dud. I trust Luck to have plenty of big plays up his sleeve, but I can’t trust Hilton from week to week. If you are inserting him into your starting lineup from here on out, you’d better start praying.

Hakeem Nicks/Reuben Randle - The Giants’ offense has just been disgusting. Considering the lack of production from Eli Manning over the last year and a half, I would avoid the whole passing game minus Victor Cruz until further notice. Manning will most likely break out of this slump soon in some fashion, but then again, he is still playing behind the same horrific offensive line for the next 13 weeks. For that reason, I’m feeling timid towards everyone involved.

Kyle Rudolph - Well, any hopes of consistency pretty much went down the drain after a 2 REC, 6 YD performance with Matt Cassel. We knew Rudolph didn’t have a chance with Ponder at the helm, and now we realize that won’t happen with Cassel either. Nothing to see here but a tight end that needs to score to have any value. The yards will absolutely not come in bunches. Stay away if at all possible.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 4

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Every time a football game kicks off, class is now in session. We revert back to grammar school/high school/college/whatever was the highest level we finished and essentially sit in our assigned seat (the couch). Kickoff signals the morning or recess bell letting us know our education has started for the day. Throughout the course of three hour lessons at a time, things become more and more clear. Our eventual final exam is approaching (the fantasy playoffs) so we want to have as much knowledge as possible before D-Day finally rears its ugly head.

Passing fantasy football with a grade of “A+” requires constant study. Weekdays entail going above and beyond in terms of your homework assignment. Information on your fantasy players is out there and you must spend significant amounts of time enlightening yourself. If your quiz comes along on Sunday and you haven’t done your homework and, say, looked at your injury reports, then you may not make the correct decision. Just like school, if you make an uneducated guess on your quizzes, you are likely to get it wrong. Getting it wrong results in a bad grade, or a loss, in which you have to make up for later.

So basically, when heading into week 4, let’s get this quiz right.  If we haven’t scored so highly on our previous assignments, then it’s time to get to business. No more starting David Wilson or Roddy White until further notice. If we have excelled so far, let’s take pride in staying in the top 95 percentile of our classroom.  Keep Jordan Cameron in your lineups and do not ever bench him. Please sit down, stay still and shut up because for this article I have taken it upon myself to be your teacher. I have a plethora of observations from the past week that have changed my outlook on the fantasy football subject. With this information, your 4th quiz will be easier than your previous three and will hopefully result in a victory.

With all that being said, class is now in session. As always, here are some players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

Value Up:

Cam Newton - Those predicting the demise of Newton have quieted considerably in the past two weeks. Newton’s games, in layman’s terms, have gone from bad to good to great. Newton’s passing TDs have gone up in increments of one every week. Finally, last week, Newton decided to run again which resulted in a season high in attempts and yards.  Much to the chagrin of the doubters, one those carries once again netted Newton a touchdown superman dance. If you were worried about Cam before this week; stop. Newton is one of the game’s elite fantasy quarterbacks whether it looks pretty on the field or not. As one of the best goal line runners of all time, Newton can score multiple TDs on the ground on any given week. Also, Newton possesses one of the strongest arms in the NFL which can result in a long passing touchdown in the blink of an eye. Remember from week 10 to week 16 in 2012, Newton was the number one point scoring quarterback in fantasy football. Week one’s schedule matched him up against the best defense in the business. Without Seattle on the schedule for the rest of the way, it looks like blue skies ahead.

Brian Hoyer - Well that was unexpected. Who thought going from Brandon Weeden to Brian Hoyer was an upgrade? At this time last week, we were all laughing at the Cleveland Browns for trading Richardson and having to go without Weeden for a period of time. We were all making, “well at least they’ll get the first pick” jokes. Turns out starting Hoyer is not synonymous with throwing in the white flag. Hoyer threw three touchdown passes and led the Browns to a late comeback victory. Do realize that Hoyer accomplished this feat against the lowly Minnesota defense, but there are plenty of positives here. Most notably, Hoyer developed a rapport with Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon. Assuming Hoyer can keep the turnovers to a minimum (he threw three interceptions), the job should be his for the long haul. Take notice in 2QB leagues and maybe even as a deep league bye week filler.

DeMarco Murray - Football is so predictable. One week (week 2) Murray goes for a disappointing, small yardage total (25 yards) and the next week he goes for seven times the amount. Although the Cowboys’ offensive line isn’t incredibly talented, they are starting to gel. After averaging 4.1 YPC last season, Murray has upped it to 4.9 YPC through three games. One thing the Cowboys never seem to do these days is commit to the run for an extended period. Murray has received 20+ carries in 2/3 games thus far, so it looks as if there may be a change in philosophy. I think Murray will always come with a “fragile” label, but as long as he’s healthy I would consider him a solid RB2.

Giovanni Bernard - Another week, another rise in workload. Eventually this mental graph will have to plateau out but his role continues to increase. It’s become increasingly clear: Bernard is the back to own in Cincinnati. If you haven’t seen Bernard’s acrobatic TD in week 3, check out this link. One reason to think the Bengals would have stayed with BenJarvus Green-Ellis was he hardly ever used to fumble. The first fumbles of his career all came last season; his fifth year in the league. Last week the Law Firm lost a fumble which resulted in him falling out of favor fast.  Bernard has also proved he’s every bit as solid a goal line runner as BJGE. If Green-Ellis isn’t a superior touchdown maker and doesn’t hold onto the ball more effectively, then there is no reason to use him. We know it and now the Bengals are finding it out. I wouldn’t be sitting Bernard any longer. With his explosiveness and now prowess on the goal line, he has moved into must start territory.

Michael Bush/Matt Forte - Not only is Marc Trestman proving to be the “quarterback whisperer,” he is just generally an offensive guru. Earlier this week, Trestman officially named Michael Bush the team’s goal line back. We pretty much figured this out on Sunday: Bush was given four carries in the red zone, three of which were inside the five yard line. One resulted in Bush’s first TD of the season. Right now, the Bears are firing on all cylinders. If things continue to flourish, the team should spend plenty of time inside the red zone. One of the men helping them get to the red zone has been Matt Forte. Forte is the number five fantasy back through three games. Trestman is proving this offense has plenty of production to go around because the offense is just improved. You start Matt Forte every week from here on out and you can now use Bush in deeper leagues if you’re in a fix.

Josh Gordon - Gordon came back with a bang! In fact, his 19 targets in week 3 led all players. Gordon scored a long TD early in the game then was heavily targeted for the rest of the game. Those who drafted Gordon knew they would be getting a WR2 at WR3 price which made him worth the gamble. The fact that Gordon succeeded and developed a rapport with the back-up is even more encouraging. Gordon is a big WR (6’3) along with blazing speed. One catch can make your fantasy day because he’s the team’s deep threat. Along with being the deep threat, it looks like the team wants him to be a possession receiver also because they have nothing else. Davone Bess is capable of moving the chains every now and then but is nothing exciting. Without a run game, Gordon and Cameron will be part of the game plan every week. For this reason, Gordon actually has the potential to finish as a WR1 in most formats. Due to his draft position, he will most likely end up on plenty of championship winning teams. If you drafted him, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Eric Decker - Through two weeks, Decker was the forgotten man in the Denver passing game. On Monday, Decker rose from the ashes and reminded you why you drafted with a high draft choice. Decker played his best football of the season: eight catches on eight targets for 133 yards and a TD. That’s a 100% conversion rate for those of you kindergartners reading this article. It can’t get any better. As a big body in a Peyton Manning offense, it’s nearly impossible to sit Decker. While his inconsistency may drive you nuts, he’s going to end the season with eight TDs minimum. You just have to start everyone in the Denver passing game because they are on a historic pace.

Cecil Shorts - Who leads all of the NFL in targets? You guessed it: Cecil Shorts. The Jaguars are absolutely terrible. I really don’t want anyone on the offense if I can help it. If I had to own one player, however, it would be Shorts. Constantly playing from behind means the team will be passing plenty. Shorts’ target conversion rate is a mere 47.5%. Due to pure volume of passes heading his way, he’s basically a must start WR3 every week. Just imagine if Shorts starts converting targets at a 60% rate. Oh the possibilities!

Antonio Gates - Thought he was done? Like Tony Gonzalez, he just won’t go away. Gates went from 100+ yards in week 2 to five catches for 55 yards and a TD in week 3. Through three games, Gates is the #8 tight end in fantasy. Looks like Gates may have some extra motivation this season. Without Malcolm Floyd, Gates is the teams’ primary large target. For that reason, it just makes sense that he would be the red zone target. If he shows he still has some of the burst he used to possess, Rivers will look for him all over the field. I don’t believe Eddie Royal is going to be the best pass catcher on the team over a full season. Gates, looking rejuvenated, has a chance to earn that role.

 

Value Down:

Josh Freeman/All TB receivers - Poor Josh Freeman. Today we learned coach Greg Schiano is sending Freeman to the pine and starting rookie Mike Glennon from here on out. Due to the unknown nature of Mike Glennon, VJax/Mike Williams’ values both immediately plummet. Freeman was semi-inconsistent (okay that’s probably an understatement) but already proved he could sustain both their values over a full season. Glennon is a crap shoot for fantasy owners and I would prefer to look elsewhere. VJax/Williams/The Tampa offense as a whole have the potential to tank on any given week until further notice. If someone still trusts the talent of either receiver, I would trade them for 75 cents on the dollar immediately.

C.J. Spiller - The Spilla from Manilla can’t catch a break. After a pre-season filled with optimism, the regular season started and Fred Jackson found his way back into the picture. Somehow, someway Spiller has only out-carried Jackson 43-32 through three games. To add injury to insult, Spiller left the game which is what is now being called a “thigh” injury. Originally it was classified as a knee which had fantasy owners worrying about ACL. Honestly, I’m extremely worried about Spiller. I was as high on him as anyone in the pre-season but the vibes feel like this just isn’t happening. Sure, he has the ability to recover, but Fred Jackson is making that difficult. He was never going to repeat the 6.0 YPC as last season but 3.6 is a disaster. I think he gets better just due to pure talent but I don’t believe he is the top 5 back a lot of us thought he was. I am more comfortable considering him a solid RB2 at this point. I wouldn’t look to sell him unless you can get RB1 value in case he rebounds, but I would temper expectations. The Bills just aren’t going to run him until he throws up as long as Fred Jackson is in town……..ever.

Maurice Jones-Drew - As I mentioned above, I want nothing to do with the Jacksonville offense. The team is going to be playing from behind so often, and be in such deep holes, that they may abandon the run early in games on a weekly basis. Jones-Drew has the talent to be a top back, obviously, but the situation is dictating his value here. Sell Jones-Drew to the owner who still associates his name with greatness, because Jaguars and greatness don’t belong in the same sentence in 2013.

Knowshon Moreno - Just as we thought he had a stranglehold on the job, John Fox went back to his old ways. Fox has always given fantasy owners fits dating back to his Carolina days with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams (and even Mike Tolbert). All three of the Denver backs possess different skills so it makes sense to use them in different situations. Montee Ball is the power back, Hillman is the speed back and Moreno is a little of both plus the best pass blocker. Since all serve a purpose, all are going to get used. Sell Moreno before Ball and Hillman eat even further into his workload.

Kenny Britt - Any last ounce of fantasy value was sapped out this week: Britt was benched for Justin Hunter down the stretch. Between Britt’s injury history and his recent attitude problem, the Titans no longer want anything to do with him. As a fantasy owner, you shouldn’t either. His snaps are going down and the Titans aren’t an offense that offer too much value to pass catchers as-is. Send Britt to the waiver wire for a better option and don’t lose any sleep over it.

Andre Johnson - The injured will always get injured. Andre Johnson was already semi-disappointing then he went down with a badly bruised shin this week. So far the vibes aren’t good when it comes to his availability this weekend. If I had to bet, I’d say Johnson misses this week. Johnson again is dealing with a lack of red zone targets so his upside is semi-limited. Due to his age combined with the fact that he’s already injured, I don’t expect him to stay healthy even when he comes back. There’s just too many negatives involved here to feel great about Johnson’s outlook.

Kellen Winslow - Sorry guys but week 1 was an outlier. We wanted to believe that Geno Smith and Winslow were going to develop a rapport after his big week in the team’s debut. Unfortunately, it looks like that was more of a game plan thing. Expect Kellen Winslow to continue to be what Kellen Winslow has been: an inconsistent low to mid tier tight end like almost every other guy.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 3

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I was all excited to start this week’s article with a “Eddie is fantasy Royalty in San Diego” joke. As an alternative, I thought about rolling with a “I keep Snelling something foul” wisecrack. All would have gone according to plan if it wasn’t for those meddling kids; and by meddling kids I mean Jim Irsay and Ryan Grigson (the Colts’ owner and general manager). As of mid-day Wednesday, the Indianapolis Colts pulled the trigger on a deal that landed them Trent Richardson for a future first round pick.

The Browns traded Trent Richardson!?!? Why?

The only answer I can come up with is they must think he’s damaged goods. I saw a stat on twitter that Richardson has only gone over 3.6 YPC in one of his last eight games. For a guy who’s supposedly elite, that isn’t exactly an impressive number. According to Evan Silva of Rotoworld, the Cleveland Browns were ranked as the #6 overall O-Line coming into the season. While having a good amount of talent in front of him, it’s pretty troubling he couldn’t do a better job. With that being said, he is not the reason I have gone on this rant.

No, the reason for my rant is because now the man with the greatest value change heading into week 3 is Willis McGahee. After trading Richardson, Cleveland brought McGahee in for a physical and immediately signed him. Considering the alternatives in Cleveland are Chris Ogbonnaya and recently signed Chris Rainey, I don’t see any true challenge for playing time long term. McGahee should step into the Trent Richardson role which includes catching a significant amount of passes and goal line work. While McGahee will have to deal with a combination of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden at quarterback, he should at worst be FLEX-worthy every week. In the right match-up, he will have the upside of a high end RB2 to low end RB1. Spend the farm on him because a better opportunity may not come around anytime soon. If the choices are him, James Starks or Jason Snelling; you know what to do.

With all that being said, here are the other players whose values have changed significantly since this time last week. Remember I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

Value Up:

Jay Cutler - Whatever it is that Marc Trestman has done to the Bears’ offense, it has resulted in Jay Cutler getting him mojo back. Like Austin Powers, Cutler is once again “groovy baby, yeah.” Somehow the “Quarterback Whisperer” has turned last year’s QB24 into QB13 so far, which is borderline start-able in all leagues. Cutler hasn’t exactly played two cupcakes either: he faced the formidable Bengals defense in week 1. I’m skeptical as to whether he can keep this up, but at the same time, he now has weapons he has never had before. He now has two big wide receivers, a pass-catching tight end and a much improved offensive line at his disposal. If Trestman’s system continues to prove to be successful, Cutler will be worth owning in all but the shallowest of leagues.

Danny Woodhead - After I counted him playing a measly six snaps in week 1, Woodhead rebounded nicely in week 2. Unlike week 1, Woodhead overtook third down and two-minute drill duties from the near fantasy corpse Ronnie Brown. He produced in the role racking up 14.4 fantasy points in standard PPR formatting. Given an expanded workload, Woodhead has proven to be an explosive player worth using in deeper PPR formats. If used right, he could catch 60 passes, which is nothing to scoff at.

Eddie Royal and Vincent Brown - What a horrific scene it was when Malcolm Floyd got sandwiched by two defenders and laid there in pain. You never like to see a player get hurt no matter whose back up you own (assuming you are humane). After the smoke cleared and Floyd was carted off, that left Royal and Vincent Brown as the top two wide receiver targets on the Chargers. Undoubtedly, week 2 was Royal’s time to shine. Now that defenses will have time to watch him on tape, they will look to game plan towards shutting him down. Having the focus taken off him, Vincent Brown should be looking at some good weeks in the near future. Eddie Royal is the guy I’d rather own in PPR formats, but I don’t think the gap is nearly as large as the stats would suggest. If the Brown owner is panicking that he isn’t the guy in San Diego, swoop in and grab him. The way Rivers is playing is only sending good vibes for his 2013 season.

Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers - For a guy with a massive build like Steven Jackson, he sure does get hurt a lot. If you checked out his picture in the ESPN: The Body issue, you’d be hard pressed to fathom a way in which this titan could break. Somehow, someway he always does. Coach Smith’s timetable of 2-4 weeks leaves the backfield a competition between Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers. I would pick up both if they are available, but given the choice, I’d take Snelling. Rodgers has always been the guy to come with the hype, but has always faltered when given the chance at lead back. Rodgers is more of a gimmicky type pass catching back who needs a pure runner along with him to succeed. Snelling fits the bill of the pure runner. Last week, Snelling racked up four catches and unsurprisingly was given the goal line carry. Expect that trend to continue along with the bulk of the carries. For that reason, Snelling is the guy I’m (reasonably) breaking the bank to get in hopes I can get a solid two to four games out of him.

Knowshon Moreno - Montee Ball fumbled! Montee Ball really fumbled! Moreno owners rejoiced when they saw that ball pop loose on Sunday. After that moment, Moreno was handed the reigns to the Bronco’s running game. He produced. When all said and done, Moreno had 107 total yards and 2 TDs. With a performance like that, there is no reason to believe his job is in jeopardy. As long as he continues to produce, Peyton Manning will continue to hand him the ball. It’s that simple. Even beyond that point, he’s the best back the Broncos’ have at pass blocking. In a Manning offense, that is equally as important as the effectiveness of the running. Please acknowledge the fact that Moreno is a quality RB2 until he proves unable.

Charles Clay - Here’s something you don’t see everyday: a true H-back. The Dolphins literally used him like a 255 pound Percy Harvin. They line him up in the slot, as a tight end and in the backfield as a fullback. Listed as a tight end on nearly every site, Clay impacted fantasy by scoring a rushing touchdown this week. Chalk Clay up to the “offensive weapon” category and start him every week with confidence. They are going to use him in so many ways that he’s bound to contribute somehow. Quietly, I believe he’s going to be ultra consistent.

Heath Miller - Trivia time! Who was the only tight end besides Jimmy Graham to finish top five in all three of the main receiver categories (REC, YDS, TD) among the position? I’m assuming you guessed the answer considering this is linked to his name: Heath Miller. I’m not sure how Miller’s monster season was so under the radar but it was. Now, having watched the Steelers’ miserable offense, it’s clear they need some kind of spark. Coach Mike Tomlin warned people not to expect he’ll “step out of a phone booth with a cape on.” In other words, don’t expect him to save the day for the Steelers’ offense single-handedly. Sorry Mike, but I will not be heeding your words. I think Miller steps in and immediately becomes their main red zone target. All their other receivers are small by NFL standards, so they basically have to go to him. For the rest of the season, he will easily lead all pass catchers in fantasy points in my opinion; especially in standard formats. Go and get him if you are struggling at the tight end position.

 

Value Down:

Russell Wilson - QB24? Is that really what you had in mind when you drafted him between QB7 and QB11? In two games, Wilson has two passing touchdowns and is averaging 231 passing yards per game. The 20 yards rushing per game is not making up for the lack of passing. Sure, he played one of the leagues’ better defenses in San Francisco last week. Let’s face it though, his group of receivers to throw to are way below average. I know he had the same group of receivers last year, but maybe you can only sustain that success for so long. I don’t necessarily believe in the sophomore slump, but it can happen. Is it panic time for Wilson owners? No, not quite yet. He has a tasty match-up this week at home against the Jaguars. If he can’t capitalize on this one, I would begin to start worrying.

Chris Ivory - How does the average at best Bilal Powell beat out Ivory for carries? It just doesn’t make sense. Powell is the better pass catcher so he’ll play on passing downs, but come on man. Ivory should be getting the goal line carries yet Powell scored the touchdown from in close this week. While I still think Ivory eventually comes out as the better fantasy option, I’ve seen nothing to believe that things will change anytime soon. Chris Ivory meet the bench.

Daryl Richardson - Um, what happened to Daryl Richardson as the “lead back?” In just his first week back, Isaiah Pead played 30 snaps while Richardson played 39. Richardson is averaging just 3.29 YPC through two games. If D-Rich doesn’t step his game up, he will find himself in a full blown committee very soon. To make matters worse, Richardson was spotted at practice today sporting a walking boot. Don’t fret, he’s expected to play, but he better play well if he wants to hold onto his RB2 status.

Antonio Brown - Sorry fellas (and ladies) but I’ve been saying it all along: Antonio Brown is not a #1 WR. He’s not a #1 wideout in fantasy (any format) nor reality for Pittsburgh. Brown has 11 REC in two games but still no touchdown. He’s 5 foot freakin’ 10. Why would you target him in the end zone? To me, Brown is nothing more than a guy whose a decent receiver with better value in PPR formats. I wouldn’t want him as anything more than a low end WR2 or high end WR3. I’m operating under the theory that before the year is over, Markus Wheaton will be the best wide receiver on the Steelers’ team.

Fred Davis - The Redskins’ TE position is like an assembly line: Davis took over for Cooley when we thought he was the guy and now Jordan Reed may be taking over for Davis who we thought was the one to own. Davis has only been targeted six times in two games while Reed has nine including eight receptions and a touchdown. Are we watching Davis fizz out of the offense in front of our eyes? I honestly believe we are. If Davis couldn’t do anything with the Redskins playing from way behind in two straight games, what’s he going to do in a close game? Close games involve more running situations. While I was as high as anyone on Davis coming into the season, it’s time to cut bait. Make the swap for Reed if need be.

Value Up-Value Down: Week 2

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We spent all week preparing for Sunday. Finally the magical day came and went (then so did Monday). In all honesty, it was absolutely worth the wait! The NFL was just as crazy as I remember: the Raiders, Bills and Chargers all almost pulled off huge upsets. The NFL’s week 1 had more touchdown passes than any week ever in league history. In tune, there was a whole boat load of fantasy goodness to go around. After the smoke settled, we had a whole lot of information to decode. Don’t worry, that is what I am here for. Without further ado, here are the players whose values changed significantly in the first week. Remember, I try my best not to be so obvious with the players I choose.

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