Super Sleeper Alert: Marlon Brown

What a story this guy has.

Once a top recruit out of Memphis, and the winner of Tennessee’s Mr. Football Award in 2008, Marlon Brown had a very injury plagued and inconsistent career at Georgia.

He flew off of teams draft boards due to a torn ACL last November, but the defending Super Bowl champs took a chance and may have struck gold after signing the former Bulldog as an undrafted free agent.

He’s a physical specimen at 6’4 and fits the mold as an outside receiver. As of today, the Baltimore Ravens have Jacoby Jones listed as their No. 2 receiver behind Torrey Smith, but let’s get real – Jacoby Jones is not a true receiver, he’s a return man. Enter Marlon Brown. He’s caught the attention of everyone leading the Ravens in receiving this pre-season, hauling in 10 catches for 169 yards and 2 TDs.

The Ravens need a true No. 2 and Marlon Brown fits the mold.

If you’re in a 14-team league or higher, he’s worth a bench spot.

Move Daryl Richardson Up Your Cheat Sheet

Before we start, please throw the outdated rankings list you have been using out the window. If you’re reading in the car, crank down your window and toss it at the car next to you (safely). Congratulations if you have power windows; just adjust my suggestion accordingly. If you’re sitting in your house, open the nearest window and aim for the closest visible trash can. We do not condone littering here at FakePigskin.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, forget all those early off-season running back rankings. For the most part, if you aren’t following me on Twitter, then you probably noticed a scarcity of nice things to say about Ram’s second year running back Daryl Richardson. People, including the experts, fell in love with the fact that Isaiah Pead was drafted higher (2nd round) in the same 2012 draft that Richardson (7th round) was taken. This year, the Rams again went and drafted a running back, Zac Stacy, later in the same draft (5th round). Some analysts looked at this in a lazy fashion and said, “Hey Richardson was drafted in the latest round of the three of these backs. By default, that means he has to be the least valuable to the team, right?” Wrong. Things don’t work like that in the National Football League. Solely for the “where he was drafted” argument, Richardson slipped in earlier fantasy drafts. I cautioned people against it. Low and behold, Richardson ran away with the job in camp and was named the starter. He looked great doing it too.  His ADP has risen in the last few weeks but I think it still has a ways to go. In my eyes, Daryl Richardson is a legitimate RB2 candidate in all 12 team leagues.

Continue reading

Who’s My Running Back’s Handcuff?

Many are for it, many against it.

What am I talking about?

I’m talking about drafting your stud running back’s back-up, or in fantasy lingo, a “handcuff”.

Pros: The obvious reason you draft a handcuff is for them to serve as an insurance policy just in case your player gets hurt. We’ve seen it in years past. Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray was in handcuff territory once and that season, he had quite a spectacular run and has now cemented himself to some as a top-20 back. This late-round draft choice could serve as excellent trade bait especially as injury news starts to circulate (see Arian Foster).

Cons:  You never know if an injury will happen, which means it could be a wasted draft pick and roster addition. You may end up missing out of some waiver wire studs, and we’ve seen plenty of those over the years (Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, Cam Newton, etc.). If you are an ESPN insider, check out this piece on more reasons not to handcuff (http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/9560305/fantasy-football-2013-why-handcuffing-rbs-not-wise-decision) written by LateRoundQB.com’s owner, JJ Zachariason. Be sure to check out his book as well!

Personally, I don’t like owning handcuffs. On my team, I have LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson and Frank Gore as my 3-headed monster at running back. I do, however, own Ben Tate who is Arian Foster’s handcuff. This is because Foster’s injury worries me, and as a result, I’m trying to trade him to Foster’s owner before positive reports come back. Who knows, I may be able to cause my opponent to over-pay for Tate.

As we venture into this, think about if this style of drafting is something you might be interested in. Some of these players are cemented as a teams back-up, but a few are educated guesses.

Let’s go! Continue reading

Calling My Shots: 2013 Predictions

Every year, after my slew of fantasy drafts, I begin to form relationships (many of them unhealthy) with several of my players, and often times with their respective teams as well. This leads to the development of preconceived notions as to how I feel they’ll perform, and nothing, short of preseason injuries, can change my mind. Obviously various things happen over the course of a season, and I usually end up being wrong more often than not, but that doesn’t stop me from dreaming.

Well, the dreaming/man crushing has been at an all-time high this offseason, and this time I’ve decided to clue you in on the action. Some may seem a little far fetched and that’s okay, because this is my fantasy…you’re just along for the ride.

The Great "Hambino" calling his shot/ Photo courtesy of filmlinc.com

The Great “Hambino” calling his shot/ Photo courtesy of filmlinc.com

Calling My Shots….

Matt Stafford will win MVP

Your 2013 NFL MVP/ Photo courtesy of bloguin.com

Your 2013 NFL MVP/ Photo courtesy of bloguin.com

If you follow me on Twitter you may remember this one, as I so boldly predicted on the day that he inked a new deal that the Lions QB would win the prestigious award. Well, that day turned out to be controversy day on twitter as I received several inquiries as to what would posses me to say such a thing (Mr. Late Round QB, JJ Zacharaison himself even replied to little ol’ me asking if I had any specific reasons why). And the truth is, while I may have just felt like being bold on Twitter one afternoon, I really feel like he has a legitimate shot. No, I don’t have any fancy numbers to support my theory, and I realize the Lions as a team will need to at least make it to the playoffs before he’s even considered, but the perfect storm of talent/opportunity seems to be a brewin’ in the Motor City if you ask me. He’s 2 years removed from a 5,000+ yd/40+ TD season, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he flirts with those numbers again. He probably won’t win MVP in real life, but at the very least he should be one of the most valuable fantasy players as you can draft him well after the likes of Brees and Rodgers, and get very similar production.

The Chiefs will win the AFC West

AFC West Champs/ Photo courtesy of fantasyportsfans.com

AFC West Champs/ Photo courtesy of fantasyportsfans.com

This one’s probably a combination of Kansas City getting a little better and Denver getting a little worse (on defense at least), but either way, the Chiefs will be sitting atop the AFC West come season’s end. You heard me right. Each year we see teams that we perceive to be a year or so away from competing that seem to almost come out of nowhere and go farther or do much better than we anticipated, and the Chiefs will be one of those teams this year. Andy Reid will right the ship on offense, and the defense should at least improve on last year’s numbers. Additionally, Jamal Charles will be a top 3 RB, and Dwayne Bowe will finish in the top 10 of fantasy WR’s.

The NFC North will have 2 100-Catch WR’s and Brandon Marshall won’t be one of them

Broyles gets 100 receptions? Yup/ AP File Photo

Broyles gets 100 receptions? Yup/ AP File Photo

For as beastly as Marshall is and he still should be drafted ahead of these next two players, he will fail to post a 100-catch season. That distinction will go to none other than Randall Cobb and Ryan Broyles. Alrighty, so the Cobb one probably isn’t that much of a stretch, but I have yet to hear anybody predict such a season for Broyles. Granted his knees will need to hold up, and thus far that’s proven to be a big if, but he’s in the perfect situation and has the perfect skill set to pull down 100 balls this year. Playing alongside the best receiver in the game and a quarterback with a rubber arm in an offense that lives to throw the ball should give Broyles every opportunity to succeed. Fingers crossed on those knees though…

Tyrann Mathieu will finish as a top 10 DB for IDP

Honey Badger don't care. Honey Badger gonna hunt/ AP Photo/Dave Martin

Honey Badger don’t care. Honey Badger gonna hunt/ AP Photo/Dave Martin

The Honey Badger may be a high risk/high reward real life player, but as far as I’m concerned, with where you can land him in a draft, he’s all upside for fake purposes in my humble opinion. Granted some of his value may come from his role in the return game as I have a hunch he’ll take a couple to the house, but he’s done nothing but make plays on defense this preseason. He has an uncanny ability for putting himself in a position to make plays, and I have faith that the Arizona coaching staff will be able to maximize his potential. He should be able to fill up the stat sheet nicely, and will find himself among the best DB’s in the game when the dust settles on this season.

A shower cry awaits those that draft Watt over a top shelf LB

#1st overall in IDP? Not so fast/ Photo courtesy of sports-kings.com

#1st overall in IDP? Not so fast. Photo courtesy of sports-kings.com

First off, if you play in a sack or big play heavy league then you can just ignore what I have to say here and skip to the next section. There’s no doubt Watt is the best at his position, but if you take him over KuechlyWagnerLaurinaitis, Bowman, or David, you’re gonna regret it. I’m not saying he won’t be good, but I just seriously doubt he’ll be THAT good again. In fact, I’ll go even further out on the limb and say he won’t post more than 15 sacks this season. Let’s put it this way: he may be the Jimmy Graham of the DL position, but would you take Graham over Adrian PetersonCJ SpillerJamal CharlesLesean Mccoy, or Trent Richardson?

Percy Harvin makes it back by Thanksgiving and is the #1 WR down the stretch

"I'll be back"/ AP Photo/Elaine Thompson

“I’ll be back”/ AP Photo/Elaine Thompson

This one’s all conditional on how Harvin’s rehab goes, but the Hawks showed their confidence that he’ll return and so shall I. He’ll have the best quarterback he’s ever had throwing to him (save but one year of Brett Favre), and the two will make magic when fantasy owners need them most. If you were clever enough to pass on a defense or kicker at the end of a draft and instead drafted Harvin to stash him, kings to you.
There you have it. Have at me. Comment or @DSEmpire_Luke. You know what to do. 

 

 

 

 

 

The Fake Pigskin Staff’s Bold Predictions

Every year while doing your fantasy football research, we all come across players that we feel very strongly about one way or the other. Whether you get a gut feeling that a player is going to completely tank or is going to break out in a big way, the point is strong feelings emerge. Here at FakePigskin, our staff has taken the time to give you their single boldest prediction that came from deep, dark inside our guts.  We have gone out on a limb to enlighten you of the possibilities that may be in store for the following players this season: Continue reading

Top-10 2013 Running Back Handcuffs To Own

I came across an article on BleacherReport.com very similar to this. I read the article, and saw the rankings.

Safe to say I did not agree completely with the rankings or the names.

As you’ve probably come to realize, I make bold predictions and don’t shy away from the controversy.

Of course, the key with handcuffs is well, not particularly HOPING the lead back gets hurt, because nobody wishes harm among anyone (unless they’re in-laws, sometimes), the lead back is demoted and/or struggles.

Another thing, most of the guys, handcuffs/back-ups or not, receive my signature phrase of #HeSucks.

So check this out, see what y’all think! Continue reading

2013 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Part Two

Welcome to another edition of Fantasy Football Sleepers.

This week, my quarterback sleeper is more of a deep sleeper who is not a starting quarterback, but could potentially be taking over as the season progresses. This weeks tight end feature is a guy who I would have never thought I’d be writing about today. My wide-receiver sleeper will make Calvin Johnson happy and the running back sleeper is really short.

 

Well, without further ado, let’s get to it!

Continue reading

Head to Head: Two Chris Ivory 2013 Projections

From Richard Janvrin(@RichardJanvrin);
This guy is on my “Fantasy Man-crush List”.  Traded to the Jets during the 2013 NFL Draft, the Chris Ivory fantasy value sky rocketed instantaneously.
 
Known for his violent style of running, Chris Ivory is built to be an every down back, in my opinion.  His only problem in recent years have been injuries, mainly knee, hamstring and foot problems.  Last season he missed one game (Week 15) due to a hamstring injury.  Buried in the depths of the New Orleans Saints running back depth chart, Ivory was given limited chances to shine.  But when given the opportunity, he shined and then some. 
 
Last season, and in only two starts, Ivory was given the ball 40 times for 217 yards and two TDs.  He also had a long of 56 yards.  If you do the math, and yes it is a small sample, but that’s 5.4 YPC.  That’s nutty.  In his career, the Tiffin product has been given 256 carries for 1307 yards.  That’s 5.1 YPC.  See what I’m getting at?  When this guy is given the ball, an explosion happens. 
 
If you look at his lifetime carries, that’s a good number to look at for the amount of carries he’ll get this season, but he will most likely receive more given the offense he’s in. There are other running backs on the Jets roster, however. Ivory will be accompanied in the backfield this season with Mike Goodson (if he’s not behind bars for 10 years), Bilal Powell, and Joe McKnight. I don’t really see any of these guys taking a huge chunk of carries from Ivory, though.
 
Ivory has already voiced his confidence in saying he’s going to put up, “crazy numbers” with the Jets. If the Jets have anything that’s pretty good, it’s their offensive line.  I think Ivory has the potential to be an RB1, but I think a realistic expectation for him will be an RB2 given the injury history and the increased workload, but I am in no way, however, taking anything away from him. 
 
I think he’s hungry and he’s ready to feast.
 

Projection for 2013: 1030 yards, 6 TDs. 

From Asher Curzon(@realABC);

I’ll just preface this head to head by saying I am a Miami fan (yes I know feel free to snicker), and that when I was approached about writing a bit on a NYJ RB
Chris Ivory I was reluctant to say the least. Yet if I want to write about
fantasy football, I am going to have to put aside bias and differences and look
at the data to determine my opinion. So with that said, here goes…

 

New Orleans traded Ivory to the Jets for picks during the NFL draft, and he became
the undisputed RB1 for the Jets once Mike Goodson ran into a little legal
trouble a few weeks ago.  Subsequently this has caused an already excited
fantasy world to burst into a crazed feeding frenzy around the newest Jet. His
ADP as of today is 72, meaning that in a 12 team league you
can secure him on your team with the first pick of the sixth round. That is
incredible value for a RB of Ivory’s potential, in an offensive system that
ranked 17th overall last year in run blocking and has notoriously
been a run first team both in early downs and the goal line under head coach Rex
Ryan.

Since we are talking about New York City, I’ll paraphrase a famous NYC rapper… 50 cent. “I love Chris Ivory’s upside like a fat kid loves cake!” Funny I know but after looking at this guys college stats, combine and pro day numbers, coupled with the highlight runs he has flashed as a Saint since 2010, you have to come away loving Ivory. What’s not to love right? He is big, fast, hits holes incredibly hard, and runs with that nasty streak a la Beast mode (Marshawn Lynch), that we all enjoy in our drafted RB’s. As of right now he is on the clock at the start of the sixth round in twelve team leagues… I mean that’s just amazing. This is a guy with top 10 potential… except for one caveat… Chris Ivory can’t seem to shake the injury bug.

There I said it. Injury is the elephant in the room with Ivory; and it’s a substantially large and ugly elephant. No one wants to address it, but it should be in the back of our minds come draft day. To elaborate, here is his injury history from his time in the NFL alone. Look for yourself, it’s impressive. Ivory’s propensity for getting dinged up additionally dates back to his days at WSU and Tiffin University. He has shown an uncanny inability to carry a full load at any level for an entire season and to be honest this concerns me as a potential owner.

As the hype around Ivory continues to grow this off season, I fully expect his ADP to sky rocket. I think we are looking at a guy that will be drafted around the likes of David Wilson, Lamar Miller, and Darren McFadden to name a few. While a healthy Ivory can produce on par with those players, you will not find me among those drafting him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of any draft. If you can get him today at his current ADP I believe you are stealing him. I just refuse to buy into the hype that you can count on him for your entire 2013 season. If you draft him I encourage you to do so with caution, and to surround your team with serviceable depth. Since I see him finishing the year on the IR here is my premonition as to how his 2013 season stats look.

Projection for 2013: 750 yards rushing and 5 TDs in 10 games played.

2013 Fantasy Football Sleepers Part One

Everyone in the Fantasy Football community has their idea of a sleeper. This could mean they are loaded with potential, finally have a starting gig, use extrapolated statistics to predict “what could have been”, or simply a guy feeling. My idea of a sleeper is a bit of all of those.

From here on until I run out, I’m going to write a weekly piece in regards to one sleeper to keep on your watch list per position. My list will include 1 QB, 1 WR, 1 RB, and 1 TE.

Throughout this process I will likely run out of quarterback sleepers and other positions, so to give you the four sleepers you’ll be looking forward to, I’ll fill that spot in with an extra position.

So let’s get this started with the first installment of sleepers. Continue reading

Head to Head: Two AJ Jenkins 2013 Projections

From Richard Janvrin(@RichardJanvrin);

According to reports, San Francisco 49ers WR Michael Crabtree has torn his Achilles tendon during OTA’s a few weeks ago. He has had surgery and is expected to miss 6 months.  This is a huge blow to not only the 49ers, but to Fantasy nerds, too. This affects Crabtree’s fantasy prospects as well as Colin Kaepernick, Anquan Boldin and Mr. AJ Jenkins.

Who the heck is AJ Jenkins? Continue reading

In The Spotlight: Danny Woodhead’s 2013 Fantasy Value in San Diego

In fantasy football, a players’ ability will only take them so far. Take Michael Bush, who had a superb year for Oakland in 2011 but took the option of sitting behind Matt Forte in Chicago. Good player, but not a great choice in fantasy. Another indicator may be the players situation, is this guy a WR1 for his team? Is he an every-down linebacker? Is he the unquestionable #1 RB? Again, this will only get you so much fantasy value. Shonn Greene got 2 full seasons of spearheading the Jets running game but his lack of ability let him (and us) down. What we’re looking for in fantasy football, are guys with both ability and opportunity who get on the field often enough and produce the goods when asked. Today I’ll shine the spotlight on San Diego running back Danny Woodhead, assessing his fantasy value in 2012 after leaving the New England Patriots in March. Continue reading

2013 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Every year before and after the NFL Draft, we, as Fantasy Football enthusiasts start to examine and analyze the potential for each skill position player. What really boils down to a successful NFL Rookie campaign are a few factors;

1. Opportunity. If a QB, RB, WR, TE or any of those positions are launched in to a starting role, they are given a great opportunity to succeed.

2. Situation. This is different for each position. Continue reading

Head to Head: Colin Kaepernick

The fantasy football community is a close knit one.  Many websites support each others work and help promote each others writers.  This article is one such way we have worked together with another site to promote new writers for both of us.  Richard Janvrin of www.FakePigskin.com and Amber Boskers of ffoasis.com go Head to Head to give you two predictions for Colin Kaepernick’s 2013 season. Continue reading

“Me, Myself, and IDP”: 2013 Seattle Seahawks

Being a fantasy football player for going on 12 years now has done something strange to me; it has jaded me to the point where I no longer find myself supporting just one team. I’m much more interested in following my fantasy teams and tracking how my players perform from week to week. As such, I usually end up “rooting” for two or three different teams over the course of a season as I give a player or players from those teams tiny slivers of heart. It’s lame, I know.

One such team that I’ve attached myself to over the past year is none other than the Seattle Seahawks. And how could one not get wrapped up in what the Hawks were doing unless of course you’re a St. Louis, San Francisco, or Arizona fan? Everything from those stellar jerseys (I’m all about aesthetics), Russell Wilson’s meteoric rise to starter and team leader, to the nail-biting loss to Atlanta in the playoffs. It was definitely a magical season for a team that wasn’t supposed to be that good–at least not yet. Continue reading

In The Spotlight: Is Frank Gore Done?

On May 14th, San Francisco 49ers Running Back Frank Gore turned 30, and whilst most people may not enjoy the big three-oh, for an NFL running back it carries an even heavier burden. 28 is often the age when running back’s production begins to go south, giving way to younger legs – so by the time you hit 30, there are few left who believe you’ve got the motor anymore. In San Francisco there are a whole host of young RBs who have been itching to get their teeth into Frank’s carries, but today I’m here to quash rumours of Gore’s demise with 4 simple points.

What’s Left In ‘The Tank’ ? Frank Gore rushing for hard yards against one of the meanest Defences in 2012, on his way to over 180 total yards from scrimmage in week 7. Photo: Sean Culligan, SFC

Continue reading

Elite QB, Late Round Grab: Joe Flacco a Fantasy Steal

We know the names. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, blah, blah, blah. 
 
Yes, they are all great QBs, but they’ll cost you an early draft selection.
 
My M.O. every draft is to wait on a QB and build up your RB/WR depth.
 
With that said, if you wait for a QB, who’s one QB who could end up being sneaky good in 2013? Maybe like, oh I don’t know, top-10, top-12 caliber?

Tired? Wake Up With These Early Sleepers

Quarterback – Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams 
 
The former number one overall pick has had a pretty up and down career overall. 
 
In his rookie season, Bradford wasn’t horrible. He posted a 3,512-18-15 season and a rushing touchdown.
 
In his sophomore season, he was just miserable. He was hindered by ankle injuries and posted a pathetic 2,164-6-6 season in 10 games, not even averaging a TD a game. Not good.
 
But, in his third season, he had his best campaign. Almost hitting 4,000 yards (3,702 to be exact) with 21 TDs and 13 INTs.
 
Definitely a step up.

Head to Head: Two Steven Jackson 2013 Fantasy Predictions

With Steven Jackson‘s free-agent signing with the Atlanta Falcons, let’s take a look at his fantasy prospects in 2013.

From Adam Rainbolt (@adamrainbolt);

In sports, we love the story of the team that can’t quite make it over the hump. The 2012 Atlanta Falcons won 13 regular-season games and lost a close one in the NFC Championship Game to the 49ers. We also love the teams that add a few new parts to make another run; precisely what Atlanta did by adding Steven Jackson and talking Tony Gonzalez into coming back for one more tilt. Are the 2013 Falcons built for another amazing regular season or a Super Bowl-winning season?

On paper, Steven Jackson will replace jettisoned Michael Turner (800-10), while third-year man Jacquizz Rodgers will continue to develop into a versatile offensive weapon, despite his diminutive stature. As he has done throughout his career, Jackson will be a reliable work-horse back with excellent blocking skills. It will be interesting to see how much the Falcons throw to Jackson, as they tossed it to Rodgers 53 times last season, an aspect of the game where Jackson is very good as well.

Adam’s Prediction (3/26/2013): Rushing: 1,250 yards, 8 TDs and Receiving: 300 yards, 2 TD, a minimum Top-12 runningback

From Regan Yant (@reganfp);

Finally my cohort and I are in almost complete agreement!  Bringing in Steven Jackson to replace the plodding, concrete feet of Michael Turner should pay major dividends for this team, which is looking at an NFC that is loaded with atleast four to five teams that I could see advancing to the Super Bowl.

Jackson has rushed for over 1,000 yards in every year of his career with the exception of his rookie season, and has averaged 45 receptions a year in his career.  That bodes well for his chances of staying on the field on third downs, where Turner would be replaced by Rodgers.  Jackson also has excellent blocking skills for a running back, which also will be great in this pass first offense.  I’m expecting a rejuvenated Jackson to be just on the outside of the Top-10 running backs.  He will be a low-end RB1 and a high end RB2 for any team this year, a great 2nd-3rd round pick in redraft leagues.

Regan’s Prediction (3/19/2013): 1,400 total yards, 11 TDs, ranking 11-13 range for the year

Head to Head: Two Danny Amendola 2013 Fantasy Predictions

With Danny Amendola‘s free-agent signing with the New England Patriots, let’s take a look at his fantasy prospects in 2013.

From Adam Rainbolt (@adamrainbolt);

The New England Patriots replaced a sub-six-foot former Texas Tech wide receiver, Wes Welker, with another in Danny Amendola; one who is four-years younger, but does have a history of injuries (elbow, shoulder and foot), preventing him from playing in just 12 of 32 games the past two seasons.

Amendola will fit nicely into the New England offense; an offense that despite having a healthy Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will still have plenty of offensive touches left over for the new wide receiver. The Patriots will also be without past free- agent disappointment Brandon Lloyd, leaving Amendola to carry the load for the wide receiving corp.

Adam’s Prediction (3/19/2013): 100 catches, 1,100 total yards and 9 TDs, good enough to be a Top-12 wide receiver.

From Regan Yant (@reganfp);

Danny Amendola to the Patriots.  Sounds like its a transitional match right?  One mighty mouse Texas Tech receiver for the next? He should be able to step right in and do what Wes Welker was doing right?  I’m not so sure.  For whatever reason, some WRs just haven’t been able to step right in to this offense and succeed.  Welker was the exception, catching 112 balls in his first season in New England and only having one season where he didn’t catch atleast 100. 

There are numerous similarities between Welker and Amendola but that doesn’t mean it’s a given that he steps right in and picks up where Wes left off.  His health is the key and I’m not convinced he will stay healthy through a full season until he proves it.  He did catch 85 balls from Sam Bradford in Bradford’s rookie season but that was also his best season statistically.  I’m not buying high on Amendola, if I’m a dynasty owner I’m selling high.  It’s not that I think he will fail miserably like Brandon Lloyd, I just don’t think he is going to repeat Welker’s numbers.  And finally, you never know what Bill Belichick has up his half sleeves, he could pull another surprise or two in regards to the receiving corps before camp starts.

Regan’s Prediction (3/19/2013): 80 catches, 900 yards and 5 TDs receiving, Top-25-30 wide receiver

Head to Head: Two Wes Welker 2013 Fantasy Predictions

With Wes Welker‘s free-agent signing with the Denver Broncos, let’s take a look at his fantasy prospects in 2013.

From Adam Rainbolt (@adamrainbolt);

Playing for NE from 2007-2012, Welker had a league-leading 672 receptions, 13% more than the #2 WR (Brandon Marshall) over that time. A pass-catching machine in a relatively compact package, Welker teams with another  Hall of Fame QB in Peyton Manning.

Let’s take a quick look at the 2012 Broncos and look ahead to 2013. Demaryius Thomas should follow his 94-1,434-10 campaign with a nice encore as he continues to develop. Eric Decker (85-1064-13) and tight end Jacob Tamme (52-555-2) both had solid years and should perform similarly in 2013. Brandon Stokley (45-544-5) exited Denver and left the door open for Welker to continue his strong career with the Broncos.

Adam’s Prediction (3/19/2013): 85 catches, 1,100 total yards and 10 TDs, good enough to be a Top-12 wide receiver.

From Regan Yant (@reganfp);

“Wes Welker with the catch from…Peyton Manning?”  That’s right, Tom Brady‘s safety blanket bolted to the Rockies to play with another future Hall of Famer in Peyton.  I have a feeling this one is going to work a little better this year than Amendola in New England for a couple different reasons.  First, I feel Welker instantly takes all of Stokley’s stats/work, and as much as I like Eric Decker I think he is the one that suffers the most from Welker’s presence.  Secondly, I think Peyton will forcefeed the ball to Welker to show he can get him those stats too, not just Brady.  This will be an interesting offense to watch in terms of distribution and who feels the effects of adding Welker.

Regan’s Prediction (3/19/2013): 90 catches, 1150 yards and 8 TDs receiving, Top 12-15 wide receiver

Head to Head: Two Rashard Mendenhall 2013 Fantasy Predictions

With Rashard Mendenhall signing a free-agent contract with the Arizona Cardinals, let’s take a look at his fantasy prospects in 2013.

From Adam Rainbolt (@adamrainbolt);

As the Cardinals released a disappointing running back with a spurious injury history and proclivity to fumble the ball in Beanie Wells, the team signed a less-disappointing running back with a spurious injury history and proclivity to fumble the ball in Rashard Mendenhall.

Mendenhall, along with the return of third-year man Ryan Williams, Arizona hopes to improve upon their 32nd ranked rushing yards per attempt (3.4) under new head man, and reigning NFL Coach of the Year, Bruce Arians. Mendenhall’s dutiful blocking, coupled with Arizona’s patchy offensive line, should provide plenty of on-the-field action for him, provided he is back to the offensive effectiveness he showed early in his career.

Adam’s Prediction (3/14/2013): 800 yards rushing, 150 yards receiving and 6 total TDs which makes him a flex play in nearly all formats

From Regan Yant (@reganfp);

I seem to be one of the few that was ok with this signing.  Beanie Wells simply did not and could not get the job done in Arizona.  I will forever refer to him as the running back chosen 22 spots ahead of LeSean McCoy.  But this is not about Beanie, this is about Rashard. 

Nevermind his weird beliefs and the crazy things he has said, he knows Bruce Arians offense, he is only 25 years old, he will be over a year removed from his ACL injury, and he can block.  I feel he wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh last year and his rough play was more the fact he was in Coach Tomlin’s doghouse constantly.  I like the fact he is coming to a change of scenery on a relatively inexpensive one year “prove it” deal. 

I feel he can easily reproduce and even outproduce Vick Ballard’s stats last year in Arian’s offense, which were 966 total yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs, ranking him 25th overall in standard scoring for running backs.  Despite Mendenhall’s reputation as a fumbler, he has never had more than 3 in a season, Adrian Peterson has had more than four in four seperate seasons, including twice with more than seven.  Not trying to be a homer here, but I think he may open some eyes.

Regan’s Prediction (3/14/2013): 1060 total yards and 6 TDs, which puts him in Benjarvus Green-Ellis range of 18-21 ranked RBs

Head to Head: Two Reggie Bush 2013 Fantasy Predictions

As Reggie Bush has signed with the Detroit Lions, let’s take a look at his fantasy prospects in 2013.

From Adam Rainbolt (@adamrainbolt);

As Reggie Bush enters his eighth season and joins his third team, his signing with Detroit he appears to be poised to produce another strong fantasy season for the Lions. The fact that Detroit lost three of its five starting offensive lineman (left tackle Jeff Backus‘ retired, guard Stephen Peterman was released and right tackle Gosder Cherilus signed with Indianapolis) is more than worrisome.

The bright side is that the salary cap and free-agent has left devastation of the Lions’ defense as well; both starting defensive ends Kyle Vanden Bosch (released) and Cliff Avril (signed with Seattle) are gone, which should make for some high scoring games this season. Bush’s ability to catch balls in space and turn them into highlight plays will make him a fun player to own this season.

Adam’s Prediction (3/14/2013):  1,200 total yards and 8 total TDs, good for a top-10 season and taken waaaay to early in a few of your leagues

From Regan Yant (@ReganFP);

First David Wilson, then Percy Harvin, now Reggie Bush.  He is the flavor of the week in fantasy football circles.  His addition to the Lions’ high-powered offense has been met with excitement and it is showing in mock drafts, as he is being taken as high as early first round!  I know this will drop off as the excitement wears down but lets get ourselves together.  This is a guy who is now 28 years old and has never made it to 1,400 yards from scrimmage and has been let go by two teams now. 

Could he excel in the Lions offense?  Sure he could, he could do some exciting things in the passing game.  But is he going to be their every down back?  That’s the question.  Will the Lions split the carries amongst Bush, Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell? I do believe he automatically becomes the most talented back on their roster but i’m not putting him down as a top 10 RB. 

Regan’s Prediction (3/19/2013): 1,150 total yards 5 TDs, putting him in my 15-18 range for RBs

Head to Head: Two Tony Gonzalez 2013 Fantasy Predictions

With Tony Gonzalez delaying retirement another season, let’s take a look at his fantasy prospects in 2013.

From Adam Rainbolt (@adamrainbolt);

There are three guarantees in life; Death, Taxes and Tony Gonzalez as a top-10 tight end. Outside of his rookie year in 1997, Gonzalez has ranked in the top-10 the past 15 seasons and in the top-5 the past two. It appeared retirement was eminent after a brutal loss in the NFC Title game; even Gonzalez himself said he was “95% sure” 2012 would be his last season.

Good news for the Falcons and NFL diehards, as he will return for his 13th season and we have little doubt that his production will be anything less than the usual from #88.

Adam’s Prediction (3/13/2013): 85 catches, 900 yards and 9 TDs and remains the cream of the tight end crop

From Regan Yant (@reganfp);

Man is this guy starting to sound Brett Favre-ish.  We thought you were 97% sure?  I don’t blame Tony Gonzalez for wanting to come back.  Last year was the first time he had ever won a playoff game in his entire career!  To finally taste playoff victory after having arguably the greatest career for a tight end ever, only to come up short in the Super Bowl quest would leave a bad taste in my mouth and have me craving for more.  The Atlanta Falcons are primed and loaded for another run at the Lombardi Trophy, why not give it one last shot?  I don’t have Atlanta as my Super Bowl favorite, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up on top.  If anybody deserves to ride off into the sunset with a championship, it’s Tony Gonzalez.

Regan’s Prediction (3/12/2013): 91 catches, 878 yards and 8 TDs putting him right back in the top 5

Head to Head: Two Percy Harvin 2013 Fantasy Predictions

With Percy Harvin’s trade to Seattle, let’s take a look at his fantasy prospects in 2013.

From Adam Rainbolt (@adamrainbolt);

With his general malaise in Minnesota in the rear-view mirror and a fat contract extension awaiting him in the Emerald City, Percy Harvin will enhance a team already loaded with playoff-caliber talent and be one of the more interesting fantasy stories going into the season.

In 2012, former-Vikings castoff Sidney Rice and Golden Tate put up 50 and 45 catches respectively; Harvin should easily surpass those numbers. Add in Harvin’s abilities on kickoffs and in the backfield and you have a player who can score points many different ways and would be a welcome addition to any fantasy roster.

 Adam’s Prediction (3/13/2013): 75 catches, 1150 total yards and 8 total TDs, good enough for top-12 WR

 

From Regan Yant (@reganfp);

The NFC West just got tougher.  With the trade of Percy Harvin to the Seattle Seahawks for a package of draft picks the odds-makers in Las Vegas lowered the ‘Hawks Super Bowl odds from 10-1 to 5-1, matching the 49ers as the teams with the best odds of making the Super Bowl.  Percy Harvin should catapult into solid top 10 territory. 

With the release of Leon Washington I expect him to take over kick return duties, which helps in leagues that award points for that.  He should really help Russell Wilson in the screen game as the young QB can look for him to dump the ball and use his open field skills.  He should take some pressure off Sidney Rice also, enough so that I feel Rice will have a better season than last year statistically.  Finally, his presence should keep defenses honest enough that I feel Marshawn Lynch slides into top-5 territory.  They won’t be able to stack the box to stop Seattle’s run game when Harvin in the slot can beat them over the top on a slant.  This team should be dangerous this year and I am excited to watch NFC West games this year, despite my love for the Cardinals.

Regan’s Prediction (3/13/2013): 72 catches, 835 yards and 5 TDs receiving, 358 yards and 2 TDs rushing, 2 Kick Return TDs, making him a borderline top 10 WR