Last Week: 1-1-1

Season to Date: 14-18-4

These spreads are accurate as of 10:30 AM on 12/8/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

Falcons +3

I hate to do this. The Falcons have looked all sorts of out of wack this year. But, have you seen Matt Flynn play? He is terrible. He’s going to run the Packers out of playoff contention and ruin Aaron Rodgers season. I would bet against him 10/10 times at this point.

Titans +13

Have you heard about Peyton’s struggle in the cold? I’m sure you have. Denver has a high of 17 degrees today. There is no doubt that the Broncos win this game; I just think it’s going to be close.

Panthers +3.5

Ride ‘em while their hot! I don’t see a reason to bet against Cam Newton and the Cats right now. This should be a great game to watch and the Panthers will keep it close.  I’m really pulling for the Panthers this year. They are playing like a top 3 team in the league right now and they are getting points. I’ll take it.

Last Week: 2-1

Season to Date: 13-17-3

These spreads are accurate as of 11:30 AM on 12/1/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

Eagles -3

Nick Foles is the answer. I’m not sure how many people would have said or believed that to start this year. He’s been spectacular. McCoy is a legitimate top 3 back in the league and Riley Cooper has been, well, very effective. Philly is coming off a bye week and should be more than prepared for the less than stellar Cardinals.

Buccaneers +7

This is a trap game for the Panthers. They have won 7 straight games and are finally staring down a playoff birth. Who’s on the schedule next week? The Saints. They always say take it one game at a time, but I’m sure the Panthers haven’t just been preparing for the Bucs this week. Look for them to struggle a bit but still pull off the win.

Giants -1

The Redskins are becoming hard to watch. The G-Men are becoming the opposite. Year after year they stress the hell out of Coughlin starting out terribly and they have really turned it on as of late. Say what you want about Eli, but he’s a winner. He knows how much this game means right now and he’s going to have a big game to try and take it

Last Week: 1-1-1

Season to Date: 11-16-3

These spreads are accurate as of 11:30 AM on 11/24/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

Pittsburgh +1

The Steelers have been playing better lately and they are facing division rival Cleveland. The Browns don’t have much to play for and the Steelers are looking to save their almost lost season. Jason Campbell definitely isn’t the answer for the Browns, and he should help lose the game for them today.

Baltimore -4

Remember when everyone said the Jets would suck this year? I think it’s starting to happen. Ray Rice looked better last week which should open up the weak passing game of the Ravens. Teams have figured out that you just need to blitz Geno to make him extremely ineffective.

Chicago +2

I took them last week and I’m rolling with McCown again. He’s filling in for Cutler with a winning mentality, not being afraid to throw the ball to his big receivers. Forte has been a quiet surprise this year, consistently moving the chains for Chicago. The Rams are pretty dysfunctional right now outside of Zac Stacy. I’ll take the better team getting points here.

Last Week: 1-1-1

Season to Date: 10-15-2

These spreads are accurate as of 10:30 AM on 11/17/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

Chicago -3

McCown has been a solid fill-in for the injured Jay Cutler. Marshall and Jeffery on the outside is a nightmare for opposing defenses. The Ravens can’t run the ball and they aren’t that good at throwing it either. I don’t expect their offense to suddenly surge against an average Bears defense on the road.

Giants -4

Don’t look now, but the Giants are turning their season around. Yes, they looked awful to start the year, but if you take records out of the equations you’d take the G-Men over a Rodgers-less Green Bay squad any day of the week. I don’t have faith that Tolzien can lead the Packers to a win against a team with their backs against the wall. Eli should step up and play very well, while Andre Brown earns his 2014 starting job.

Kansas City +7.5

I can’t wait to watch this game. Kansas City has been called the worst 9-0 team in history. Whatever your opinion is, KC is undefeated. Manning is a little banged up and is going against the best pass rush in football, not to mention the best defense. Andy Reid is 10-1 following a bye week. There are so many factors leading to this pick leaving me little doubt that they can cover this touchdown and a half line.

Last Week: 1-2

Season to Date: 9-14-1

These spreads are accurate as of 9:30 AM on 11/30/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

 

Seattle -4.5

This feels like a trap bet. But I watched the Falcons last week in Charlotte and they are struggling. Roddy White is coming back healthy, which could really help Ryan out. But I think they have far too many problems around their skill players. Their defense can’t stop anyone and the line is awful. This is a top 3 team going against a bottom 10 team with less than 5 points needed to cover. Just playing the numbers here.

Houston +3

Arizona is sitting at .500 but has not played well against good teams. Now, 2-6 is not a good team. But I think the Texans are better than that record. Especially with Case Keenum giving them an emotional lift and a mobile QB threat. I think the Texans defense will take Fitz out of the game and create some turnovers from Palmer. They are getting 3 points here so they can still lose and cover. I like the overall better team regardless of game location.

Miami -2.5

It looks like Tampa is about to tank this season. They haven’t won a game yet, are starting a rookie QB and just placed their franchise player on IR. Miami on the other hand is playing for something. They are having their best season in years and need this win. I think Tannehill is progressing and he’s going to step it up in front of the country on MNF. Fantasy owners, look for Lamar Miller to have a nice game.

Season to Date: 8-12-1

The picks are back after a week off. I’m traveling from Houston to Charlotte this weekend and I’ll be checking out the Panthers Falcons game, which projected to be an important game when I scheduled the trip. Instead the Panthers are favored by over a TD and the Falcons have lost their season. Still, I’m expecting a good game. The Panthers don’t live up to expectations very well.

These spreads are accurate as of 2:30 PM on 10/31/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved

Ravens -3

My lock of the week. The Ravens coming off a bye, against a division rival, who haven’t won a game with a QB not named Brian Hoyer. Ray Rice has had 2 weeks to get fully healthy (if you believe that’s whats causing his struggles). I do and I think he’s going to be featured heavily this game. I think Marlon Brown is due for another good game with Torrey Smith being locked down by Haden.

Bills +3.5

This one is a gut instinct. The Chiefs look like the obvious pick here. Does anyone think they are going to go undefeated? They are heading to Buffalo where it is getting cold. The Bills are getting desperate and haven’t necessarily lost the season. They are 3-5 but have beaten the Panthers, Ravens and Dolphins. Those teams aren’t elite but they aren’t scrubs. I think the Chiefs slip up for a game and the Bills take it.

Titans -3

Can we agree that the Rams are a mess? Kellen Clemens is the new worst QB in the league. After starting 3-1 the Titans have lost 3 straight games. They are due for a win and Jake Locker knows that. I feel like the running game is due for a breakout game. The Rams pass rush is legit, but if CJ2K-no more can break a few big runs they can control the game on the ground. The Titans claim to give both RBs the ball a lot this week. I like their chances when they control the ground game versus putting the ball in the air 30+ times.

 

Last Week ATS: 2-1

Season to Date: 7-10-1

Back to back weeks at 2-1. Things are starting to look up. If anyone tells you they knew how the NFL would look come week 7, they’re lying. This year has been exciting, shocking and completely unpredictable. Not just from a gambling perspective, but from a football perspective as well. The Jaguars covered easily as Denver predictably played down to their level of competition. Detroit took out the Browns in their rivalry game and the Redskins couldn’t hang with the Cowboys due to turnovers. I’m chalking them up as a team not to touch for a while.

These spreads are accurate as of 10:00 AM on 10/20/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

Eagles -3

Nick Foles. This guy is playing like he wants to be a starting QB. And there’s plenty of talk that he will keep the job if he keeps it up. The Cowboys have 2 key players doubtful for the game. Romo has played great this year and Dez Bryant is a monster. I just don’t think their defense will be able to get a solid pass rush or keep up with the Eagles offense.

Chiefs -6.5

I live in Houston and I’d love for the hometown kid Case Keenum to have a great game, giving the Texans a well needed spark to their disappointing season. But, I’m a realist. Keenum has never played a snap in the NFL, has less than adequate arm strength and is coming into a dysfunctional environment. Oh yeah, and the undefeated Chiefs have the most electric defense in the league at the moment. Houston needs to make a statement today to turn their season around. The Chiefs at Arrowhead will prove to be quite the test. Go with the much better team.

Jaguars +7.5

I’m picking the Jags for the 2nd straight week. I’m not crazy, I swear. The Jags offense looks much better with Henne at the helm. It’s sad how much of an upgrade he is over Gabbert. San Diego has looked great this year, but they are playing an early game on the road. That west coast to east coast time change can really mess with players. Sure, the Chargers could win this game by double digits. But my FakePigskin Bold Prediction (#FakePigskinBP – tweet yours now) of the week was that the Jags would get their first win this week. And I’m sticking to it.

 

Week 7 Survivor Pick: Miami (Use these at your discretion. As you can tell, I’m dead as can be.)

Teams Chosen: Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Denver, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Houston

Last Week ATS: 2-1

Season to Date: 5-9-1

The path to .500 started last week as I hit 2/3 games. The Panthers aren’t that good. I guess it’s time to stop believing they may improve. The Chiefs looked legit once again rolling over Tennessee and Indy proved they weren’t a fluky 11-win team last year.

These spreads are accurate as of 10:00 AM on 10/13/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

Washington +6

Washington is coming off of a bye and Dallas is coming off an emotional loss. I don’t think the Redskins solved their defensive issues, but they can put up points when they need to. We should see a glimpse of the rookie RG3 this game. I think Dallas wins the game, but the Skins keep it close.

Detroit -3

The Browns will come back to earth this week against the Lions who have their backs against a wall. The Lions are sitting at 3-2 and really have something to prove in this rivalry game. Cleveland’s defense is no joke, but Stafford, Bush and Megatron are studs and they’ll show it today.

Jacksonville +27

I don’t think I can write anything justifying this pick from a football standpoint. There has never been a 27 point spread in an NFL game. Mainly because the talent gap isn’t that great in the NFL. I think the Jags have the talent to put up garbage time points to keep this within the spread. Peyton and Co. will be removed before the 4th quarter and the Jags put up a TD or two to lose by 20.

Week 6 Survivor Pick: Houston

Teams Chosen: Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Denver, Cincinnati, Atlanta

Last Week ATS: 1-2

Season to Date: 2-4

These spreads are accurate as of 11:30 AM on 9/22/13 from www.sportsbook.com  and are likely to move by gametime. Half points do matter, so hit me up on Twitter if you want my opinion on a play after the line has moved.

Indianapolis +10

San Fran is a great team and they are coming off a loss, but Indy’s offense is very good. I see this as the classic garbage-time cover here as Luck excels in the 4th quarter. Indy may not get a real shot to win the game, but they put up points when it matters and cover the spread.

Oakland +16

The Raiders have 9 sacks in 2 games and the Broncos just lost their best OL Ryan Clady. I think Peyton is under pressure all day and doesn’t get to run the score up on Oakland. I hate to put any sort of faith in the Raiders this year, but 16 points is an awful lot in an NFL game. I’d also bet on Seattle for what it’s worth.

New York Giants -3

This is a make or break game for the G-Men. I have to believe that they are going to come out and not start 0-3. This line has moved 4 points over the past few days as they started out +1 to Carolina. David Wilson breaks a big run and gives New York the momentum away and Eli runs with it.

Week 3 Survivor Pick: Denver

Teams Chosen: Indianapolis, Philadelphia