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AFC Teams: PPR ADPs Converted to Fantasy Points

Introduction to AFC Teams: PPR ADPs Converted to Fantasy Points Per Game

Welcome to my next multiple part series of articles.  The metrics presented here are not my personal projections but those FP/G projections based on the Public’s PPR ADPs.  I preset AFC Teams: PPR ADPs Converted to Fantasy Points per Game for our thinking processes.

I used the last 5 years of preseason ADPs and compared to the end of seasonal FP scored by those players. Next, I applied a mathematic data transformation to create conversion factors for each position. Finally, this transformation model was applied to the current PPR ADP based FP/Gs to create player data projections based on what the public is telling us.

Under uncertainty, one way to deal with that issue is to develop reference class forecasting.   We remove our biased insider views and look instead from an outside view. Now using my methods, we are free to study and debate what the public is telling us really.  100 ADP vs 120 ADP is hard to understand but 10 FP/G vs 8 FG/G is much easier to determine the differences.

link – Reference Class Forecasting.


COM Score

COM SCORE- This is a simple percentage comparison between 2 players of the same position within a team.

I would use this score:

  1. Form an opinion of whether a WRBC exists and how many WRs are in that committee. — Think LAR with Cooks (100%), Woods (94.6% of Cooks) and Kupp (96.7% of Woods)   vs    HOU with mainly Hopkins 100% vs Fuller (56% of Hopkins) and Coutee (90% of Fuller)
  2. How many players are thought to be within a small or large % of FP/G
  3. Strength of the public’s opinion of a player
  4. Potential injury handcuffs from the public’s viewpoint.

AFC Teams: PPR ADPs Converted to Fantasy Points ( AFC Team Level Data )

Each team has 2 blocks of data, I started with the visual graphs first as I believe that this method of data presentation is beneficial for learning. See the interesting link —   New-look-visual-thinking

The graphical side of the data reveals the team landscape and illustrates the entire picture of the ADP to FP/G metrics. I list the predicted FP per Game data in BAR graphs while the COM scores are in a line format. Note the 2 scales for each metric (Left is the FP/G and Right is Com Score %)

Positional Relationships are uncovered by these data blocks. The extremes are easily spotted as well. Sleepers are now players that are hidden by all the data from all directions. (Forrest vs Trees Concept)

A lot of data does not improve accuracy but just gives you more confidence in your same accurate choices. (Big Concept here! – see my textbook for deeper discussions). In other words, at some point, you have gotten all you can handle from data for decisions.

I suggest, we now we must use visual as a method to rethink our conclusions. Thus my 2 data block approach!


BAL

BAL gBAL t

  • Jackson is the QB-1 no other player on the horizon.
  • Ingram is the top RB and his backup Hill is just 60% of Ingram. No competition
  • TEs are below the same. The public can not separate them. ( TE2 material-finding the top player can be of value as others can not).
  • WRs have Brown as a clear favorite with Snead at just 6% of him. If true Brown seems a bargain sleeper. Drafts just seeing WR-1 vs WR-2 seems closer while actually not close by the public’s ADP view!

BUF

BUF GBUF T

  • RBs close together. RBBC? Gore at RB-4? 3 RBs within 50% of each other. Confusing RBBC. Bargain if you can find the RB-1 in here for the season.
  • No TE-1? Both the same?
  • WRBC Brown and Foster the same. Jones within 50% of the 2.

CIN

CIN gCIN T

  • Mixon 57% above Bernard. “Bell-Cow RB?”
  • TE-1 Confusion here.
  • Clear 2 Man WR Crew – Green and Boyd within 80%

CLE

CLE GCLE T

  • RB-1 Chubb with Hunt out.  Note Duke is at less than 50% of Chubb. Chubb Bell-Cow until Hunt come back. Then an RBBC?
  • 2 Man WR Crew. OBJ > Landry by 33%. Clear bias to OBJ.

DEN

den gDEN T

  • Big QB Confusion. Flacco vs Lock? Avoid?
  • RBBC – Lindsay vs Freeman within 21% Clear Handcuffs to each other. Best ball grab both?
  • 3 Way WRBC First Clear 3 way Crew within 15% of each other. Is there a true WR-1 in here. Value if you can pick it!   Sutton>Sanders>>Hamilton.

HOU

HOU gHOU T

  • RBBC- complete confusion on who is the lead RB. Miller>Foreman by 12%
  • No Clue TE-1
  • WR-1 Bell Cow – Hopkins. Follow by WRBC of Fuller and Coutee with 10% of each other. Hard to figure the WR handcuff?

IND

ind Gind t

  • RB- Mack trending to a  RB-1 > Hines +29% greater.
  • Treat MACK as a weak RB-1 Bell-Calf!
  • Clear TE-1 Ebron > 90% vs Doyle. That seems too much difference.
  • Hilton WR-1 by 43% > Campbell and Funchess. Again who is the WR-2?


JAC

JAC GJAC T

  • RB Fournette is at 100% > Armstead 41% >Blue 11%. Note Fournette injury should lead to RBBC with Blue moving up with Armstead. Rookie Armstead is a risk. Armstead and Blue are later best ball picks. Note sure for redrafts.
  • TE-1 Oliver is not expected to do much
  • WR is one WR Westbrook at 100% vs 4 at 5% of him. That seems not accurate. The public is boycoting picking a WR-2! Pick the WR-2 for profit this season. Watch the preseason!

KC

kc Gkc T

  • RB-1 Williams >37% over Hyde. Would seem to be a Solid RB-1 Note Hyde vs Thompson only 22% difference. That points to Hyde weakness or DT strength?
  • A solid 2 WR crew (Hill should be 100%) 9% difference between Hill and Watkins. Close because of controversy? Hardman at nice 24% away from Watkins. A solid late WR for handcuff and Best Ball uses.

LAC

lac glac T

  • Does Gordon Hold Out? Seems to favor Ekeler. The public gives Gordon Bell-Cow Status with 46% above Ekeler! Jackson is 94% below Ekeler but that is in the context of Gordon Playing. Conventional Wisdom says Jackson move up near Ekeler? True RBBC if no Gordon?
  • Solid 2 WR crew. Allen>29% better than Williams! Benjamin is way down at 96% less than Williams.

MIA

MIA GMIA T

  • MIA has a QBBC. Rosen > Fitzpatrick 97% alike. Expect a QB change in season.
  • The public may be off on Ballage given the recent camp news, They are predicted as a slight RRBC with Drake > Ballage 68%. Clearly, this is going to change and should result in Ballage moving closer to Drake as an adjustment.
  • Weak TE
  • 2 WR crew Parker=Stills? within 6% of each other in FP/G. Wilson a distance WR3 at 60% from the top.

NE

NE Gne T

  • RBBC with Michel at 100% > White at 94%. Note even D Harris is just 76% off of White. A typical confusing NE situation. Burkhead is goal-line back?
  • TEBC Watson vs LaCosse the same. Weak as a group. Pick the TE-1 for bonus points.
  • WR seems to be an obvious pecking order of Edelman>Harry (72%)>D Thomas (36%) and Dorsett (13%). Seems picking the WR-2 is not a strong choice as there are other WR-2 for more points to be had!

NYJ

NYJ GNYJ T

  • RBs Clear Bell-Cow in L Bell > McGuire (9%). Injury handcuff is confusing. Deeper RBs in here as well. The public is not picking too deep in here.
  • WR-1 strong is Anderson at 100% > Crowder 50%>Enunwa 9%. Again injury handcuff is not clear.

OAK

OAK GOAK T

  • Jacobs predicted to be a “bell-cow” at 100%>Richard at 46%>Martin 9%
  • Interesting TE-1 could surprise given the team new. Late gamble in best ball/TE-2 league etc.
  • Brown is dominating at 100%> Williams 49%. Renfrow 6%. Williams should be the injury go-to in needed. Seems a little low in here.

PIT

PIT GPIT T

  • Connor is expected to dominate at RB 100% > Samuels 56%
  • McDonald seems a little low here for a range of outcomes. Surprise TE!
  • WRs- we have a clear dominate play at JuJu at 100% > 2 WRs Washington and Moncrief within 50% of JuJu. Juju injury gives a split WRBC! Longshot D Johnson is deep play as well. PIt has supported 2 to 3 WRs over its history with Big Ben.

TEN

TEN GTEN T

  • RBs are closer to a weak based RBBC with Henry 100% vs Lewis at 69%. Lewis could be a nice best ball and zero RB play.
  • Walker is a nice TE-1 but injury risk.
  • WR is a dominate 1 WR with Davis 100% > Humphries at 46% and AJ Brown is 87% of Humphries. Injury to Davis lead to a WRBC with an almost equal split of Humphries and Brown

Conclusion:

These figures are meant to be a reference for your deeper thinking. I do not follow them exactly but use as a guide with other secondary factors to draft.  Under uncertainty, it is best to use other factors to balance out one data stream.



Fun Research in my textbook!

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook: June 2019 Edition [Print Replica] Kindle Edition

Click Link Below

Textbook on Kindle


Please Read

Part 1 ADP to FP/G QBs and RBs

Part 2 WR and TE ADPs to FP/G


My current PPR rankings

ppr-power-rankings-part-1/

ppr-power-rankings-part-2/



 

Defense Against the Positions Part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5

DAPs Part 1 Link

DAPs Part 2 Link

Analysis of DAP Part 3

DAP Best and Worst Players Part 4

DAP Analysis 2019 Playoffs and Bye Week


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