College Football DFS Week 6 Targets

If you need a College Football DFS appetizer before Sunday, I will be posting my DraftKings targets here each week for the afternoon slate. My goal every week, is to identify three to four low cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 10 games included in the afternoon DK contest:
Game Line Total
KU@WVU 10/06/2018 12:00PM ET 28.5 61
UT@OU 10/06/2018 12:00PM ET 7.5 60.5
IU@OSU 10/06/2018 04:00PM ET 25 64
BAMA@ARK 10/06/2018 12:00PM ET 34.5 60
CLEM@WAKE 10/06/2018 03:30PM ET 17.5 62
ISU@OKST 10/06/2018 03:30PM ET 10 54
NW@MSU 10/06/2018 12:00PM ET 11.5 46.5
UMD@MICH 10/06/2018 12:00PM ET 17.5 51
LSU@UF 10/06/2018 03:30PM ET 2.5 44
FSU@MIA 10/06/2018 03:30PM ET 12.5 49.5

For example this week, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Kyler Murray and Will Grier. What I will do is point out that rostering Grier, and the stud Sooner quarterback in the same lineup, will leave your average remaining price per player at $4,900. This is the price range I will focus on each week.

Since DFS relaunched college football, the value week to week is coming from receivers. In particular, freshman receivers who are still establishing roles, haven’t caught on yet among the fantasy masses, or–my personal favorite–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports, the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

For example, freshman phenom Kansas Jayhawk, Pooka Williams Jr., is finally no longer mispriced (jumped from $5,700 to $7,000 this week) after another stellar performance against Oklahoma St. in Week 5. That said, let’s start with another freshman running back who is trending toward a bump in price himself.

Keaontay Ingram | RB | Texas $4,900

A quick google search on this freshman, and you’ll see that his play has created a ton of buzz leading up to the Longhorn’s referendum matchup with Oklahoma, in the Red River shootout Saturday afternoon. Slowed by a knee injury early on in the year, Ingram has come on strong as of late, with 95 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches (five catches) in last week’s win over Kansas St. It’s also important to note that he served as the teams closer when they were protecting the lead in the fourth quarter.

(Sept. 21, 2018 – Source: Getty Images North America)

Averaging over six yards per carry compared to counter part Tre Watson’s 4.0, it’s clear Ingram is the difference maker in the Texas backfield. A matchup against a shaky Sooner defense, in what projects to be a game with scoring from both sides, Ingram should have an opportunity for a real breakout performance.

Darrell Stewart Jr. | WR | Michigan St. $4,800

Michigan St. treated their game last week against Central Michigan as a glorified bye week, holding out several players with undisclosed injuries including Stewart. Meanwhile, the Spartans leading receiver Cody White played, and ended up breaking his left hand, which will keep him sidelined indefinitely.

(Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In their matchup last season with Northwestern, MSU coaches turned quarterback Brian Lewerke and the offense loose, generating 445 yards through the air, and four touchdowns. Stewart produced  an 11-98 line, and had two rushes for another 27 yards on the ground. Assuming health, Stewart and Felton Davis ($5,600) would be the de facto number one options in the passing game, and will be heavily targeted by Lewerke moving forward sans White.

Both come in at great prices this week to return value to your lineups. If you’re looking for GPP longshots, Jalen Nailor ($3,000) and Laress Nelson ($3,100) should be more involved with White out as well.

(Dec. 27, 2017 – Source: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images North America)

Landon Wolf | WR | Oklahoma St. $4,200

Last week, I discussed teammate Tyron Johnson’s opportunity for a larger role, and both, him and Wolf, picked up the slack with the transfer from Jalen McCleskey, and Dillon Stoner’s injury. Even if Stoner is healthy this week, Wolf and Johnson ($5,400) offer the best floor/upside/price combination among the Cowboy receivers this week.

Others to Consider

Justyn Ross | WR | Clemson $4,400

Still way mispriced. Clemson went heavy run after Trevor Lawrence left the game with an injury last week. Reportedly, he is fine and should be under center Saturday. A monster game is coming from this freshman duo soon.

Cade Carney | RB | Wake Forrest $4,900

Carney is on the better side of a timeshare in the Demon Deacon backfield. At this price, a running back that is likely to touch the ball a minimum 15 times, and getting the majority of the goal line work is good value.

John Moten IV | RB | Northwestern $4,600

Moten was the beneficiary in their first game after the Wildcats lost starting running back Jeremy Larkin to injury for the season. He didn’t do much in a tough matchup with Michigan’s defense, but he did find the end zone. Similar to Carney, his guaranteed volume makes him worth considering as a cheap running back play this week.

Fading the Chalk at Quarterback

As mentioned, last season’s MSU/Northwestern game turned into a shootout. Considering that the Wildcats only dynamic player in their backfield, Jeremy Larkin, has been lost to injury, and MSU’s elite run defense, it would not surprise me if they game planned to attack through air on Saturday. For this reason, I think there is potential for a repeat script from last year’s game, and I like both NW’s Clayton Thorson ($5,300), and MSU’s Brian Lewerke ($7,800) as low/mid level plays at quarterback. Other QBs I would target if I’m passing on the top 5-6:

Sam Ehlinger | QB | Texas $7,400

Ehlinger should be heavily utilized in the run game Saturday in what projects to be a high scoring affair, as the Longhorns will try and keep Kyler Murray and the Sooner offense on the sidelines with ball control. At 6’3″ 235 lbs, the sophomore quarterback is as much of a goal line threat as anyone on the UT roster, leading the team in rushing touchdowns (3) so far this season.

N’Kosi Perry | QB | Miami $6,800

Any starting quarterback with a pulse against this awful FSU team is worth a look.

Good luck for the Week 6 afternoon slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock don’t hesitate to compliment or troll!

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