Time to Shine or Ride the Pine: Week 4 Start or Sit

Time to Shine or Ride the Pine

The Buffalo Bills beat the Minnesota Vikings! That tells you how week 3 unfolded. A Falcons pass catcher, not Julio, nor my recommended Hooper, put up ridiculous stats vs the Saints. Gio took on the 3-down role like expected for the Bengals and Matt Breida improved on his crazy yards per carry avg with 90 yards on only 10 carries. Derrick Henry once again plodded his way to a 3.1 y/c avg, and the two old man receivers failed to impress. Overall, week 3 turned out a mixed bag as 2 guys were DNP, and 3 completely destroyed my predictions. So, without further ado, here are the full results of my attempted fortune telling:

Running backs who will shine
Aaron Jones (Buf@GB, 1pm est)

In his first game back off suspension, Aaron Jones may have moved past Jamaal Williams as the teams preferred runner. He averaged a hefty 7 yards per carry in his minimal 6 attempts.

Last season Jones averaged 5.5 y/c and gained 346 yards on the ground during a 4-game stretch in which he started. Jones has been the most efficient as well as effective Packers runner and will prove that Sunday when the Bills, who stampeded the Vikings last week roll into Lambeau field.

Prediction: 13 carries 73 yards 1 td, 1 rec 4 yards: 14.2 pts

Lamar Miller (Hou@Ind, 1pm est)

The ultimate fantasy running back tease Lamar Miller, may finally be poised to put up RB1 numbers week 4. Playing on 75% of the Texans snaps, Miller is almost tripling Alfred Blue in carries, and receiving almost every target out of the backfield. We’ll be living the “Miller” high life when Lamar guzzles all the Texans carries Sunday vs the Colts.

Prediction: 18 carries 70 yards 1 td, 4 rec 29 yards: 17.9 pts

Bilal Powell (NYJ@Jac, 1pm est)

Crow got his revenge last Thursday vs his old team but was still out performed by Powell. Bilal has been the most explosive and elusive back for the Jets each of the last 3 seasons. This season is no different as Crowell, minus one 62 yard td week 1, has produced 2.9 y/c and Powell is right around 4.5.

In a game where the Jaguars fearsome front will undoubtedly load the box and force rookie Sam Darnold to throw, Powell and his pass catching abilities as well as open field elusiveness will be needed.

Prediction: 7 car 24 yards, 6 rec 53 yards 1 td: 16.7 pts

Put a splinter in their backsides

Kerryon Johnson (Det@Dal, 1pm est)

Kerryon and look elsewhere for a good play this week. Johnson became the first Lions running back to surpass 100 yards on the ground since 2013 during Sunday night football against the Patriots. Carries were still evenly split between Blount and Johnson as well as passing game duties shared with Theo Riddick.

Detroit and their swiss cheese rush defense is now facing the NFL’s leading rusher Ezekiel Elliot and time of possession for Detroit will in no-way duplicate what occurred vs the Patriots. In a game where possession is 9/10ths of the law, Johnson won’t receive enough touches to continue last weeks success.

Prediction: 12 car 44 yards, 2 rec 11 yards: 6.5 pts

Derrick Henry (Phi@Ten, 1pm est)

I know, I know, He was on here last week. Once again he’ll be facing an elite defense. This time it’s the NFL’s best run defense, the Philadelphia Eagles. Marcus Mariota is expected to return as will a more pass friendly attack. They’ll try to take advantage of the Eagles through the air and will lean more on the former Eagle Dion Lewis to stay close.

Prediction: 14 car 46 yards, 1 rec 3 yards: 5.4 pts

Chris Carson (Sea @Ari, 4:05pm est)

Chris Carson looks to have overtaken SDSU rookie Rashaad Penny as the Seahawks lead back after he was leaned upon for 32 carries against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Before we all go out and pin Carson as a top 10 back, let us not forget that Seattle came off two consecutive games giving up 6 sacks.

The Seahawks definitely wanted to protect their franchise Russell Wilson by limiting his pass attempts. Game flow caused Seattle to lean on its run game and Pete Carrol is notorious for riding the hot hand ever since Marshawn left.

So, In the spirit of bold thoughts, I believe the Cards lead by rookie Josh Rosen will keep this game tight by forcing a few early turnovers. With one of those being a costly fumble by Carson meaning he and Penny will share back duties the whole game.

Prediction: 13 carries 49 yards 1 lost fumble, 3 rec 16 yards: 6 pts

Dale Zanine – USA Today Sports

Wide Receivers/TE in the spotlight

Kyle Rudolph (Min@LAR, TNF 8:20pm est)

Rudolph will guide Kirk’s crew out of the fog left over from last weeks disaster. Facing a Rams team who will probably be without both their starting corners, I expect the Rams to use safety help over both Diggs and Theilen leaving Rudolph with plenty of open space in the middle of the field. Being like a Cousin to Kirk, Rudolph will be target most of the day.

Prediction: 6 rec 64 yards 1 td: 15.4 pts

Allen Robinson (TB@Chi, 1pm est)

Mitch has found his go to receiver and its Allen Robinson. He has been targeted 28 times in 2018 and has over 100 yards more then the next closest receiver. He gets the leagues worst pass defense Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and should capitalize on at least one deep throw. Robinson looks to have fully recovered from his knee injury and is showcasing his tremendous athletic ability. The Bears will look to take advantage of these abilities in the end zone against the shorter corners for the Bucs.

Prediction: 7 rec 116 yards 1 td: 21.1 pts

Sterling Shepard (NO@NYG, 4:25pm est)

Shepard saw his yards per target increase from 4.8 the first 2 weeks, to 11.4 vs the Texans. This may have been a result from Evan Engram leaving the game early and not returning. Now without Engram for the next few weeks, Sterling will continue to be the second downfield target for Eli and the Gmen. Expect Shepard to continue his success against the Saints, who have the 3rd worst pass defense already, and are now without their best slot corner. Shep runs most of his routes out of the slot and will most certainly have advantageous matchups all day. Sterling will shine like silver vs the helpless Saints D.

Prediction: 8 rec 94 yards 1 td: 19.4 pts

Splinter Time

Calvin Ridley (Cin@Atl, 1pm est)

Megatron plays for the Falcons? Some may have thought Calvin Johnson had returned from retirement last weekend after seeing the stat line put up by rookie Calvin Ridley (7 rec 146 yards, and 3 tds). No, he isn’t Megatron, and yes, he is still second fiddle to Julio Jones. Cincinnati will be more cognizant of Ridley now that he has been targeted more often and Ryan will turn to his favorite receiver Julio in what should be another high scoring game vs the Bengals.

Prediction: 5 rec 62 yards: 8.7 pts

Marquise Goodwin (SF@LAC 4:25pm est)

C.J. Beathard! Last season the track star Goodwin averaged 2.5 receptions and 52.5 yards per game B.E. Jimmy G. Once Garoppolo took over, Goodwin’s stats, like his track abilities leapt to 6 receptions and 76.5 yards per game. With the leagues highest percentage of passes to running backs, C.J. Beathard will leave Marquise Goodwin behind the pace for wideouts. The Niners are also playing a Chargers team fresh off a drubbing by the Rams and eager to get back to winning.

Prediction: 4 rec 53 yards: 7.3 pts

Tyreek Hill (KC@Den, MNF 8:15pm est)

The new human Joystick, Tyreek Hill has been nothing but spectacular so far this season. He is however third in targets behind both Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins as Tyreek does most of his damage on deep routes. The Chiefs have done a fantastic job of protecting sophomore phenom Patrick Mahomes allowing for these deep patterns to develop but they have yet to face Von Miller and the new Orange Crush. Denver will most certainly depend on their elite group of pass rushers to get after Mahomes, and limit the amount of deep attempts towards Tyreek. An alien like talent, Hill will be orbited all game by Denver’s D.

Prediction 4 rec 68 yards: 8.8 pts

 

 

One Comment

  1. Avatar

    Steve

    September 27, 2018 at 2:13 pm

    “Kerryon & look elsewhere for a good play this week”
    Well played

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