NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 4

Welcome to week four of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week was rough.  On ESPN’s eliminator challenge, the top three picked teams were the Vikings (56%), the Patriots (7%), and the Jaguars (6%).  That’s almost 70% of participants who’s season ended in only week three.  Unfortunately, we were part of that group with our selection of the Vikings, who seemed like a slam dunk pick.  That being said, we did go 2-0 with our alternate picks of the Dolphins and Rams.  i.e. if you went with an alternate pick of mine, or if your league ended in a tie with everyone being eliminated (happened in one of mine), you’re still alive, and that’s why we’re all back here for week four!  Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

We may have only had two division matchups last week, but one went to overtime, while the other saw the Titans beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville.  These games continue to get more and more unpredictable.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
  • Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
  • Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
  • Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

The Steelers finally got their first win of the season (barely), the Lions shocked the world in sending the Patriots to a 1-2 record, and the world was introduced to Baker Mayfield in an NFL game that counted.  The prime-time games were very entertaining last week to say the least, and their outcomes were just as unpredictable.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
  • Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Whether we look at Aaron Rodgers losing in Washington or Tom Brady losing in Detroit, the point remains that even some of the best in the game struggle on the road.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
  • Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Step 4 – Make your pick!

Mark Zaleski – AP

My pick of the week is:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars over the New York Jets

The Jets rookie wonder at quarterback has fallen back to reality, and he fell hard.  He struggled mightily against a good Browns defense.  I can’t even guess what he will do against a great Jaguars defense.  While the Jags may only score 9 points again, that may be enough to win this one.

Other options I like this week:

  • Green Bay Packers over the Buffalo Bills

The Packers have not had a great season and the Bills are coming off a huge win last week.  This looks like a perfect trap game for the Bills where I expect them to fall back down to reality.  Aaron Rodgers is due for one of his amazing games that reminds people that as long as he is on the Packers, they are a Super Bowl contender.

  • Atlanta Falcons over the Cincinnati Bengals

Atlanta lost a tough game against a very good offense last week.  While the Bengals have been up and down this season, I think Atlanta is hungrier for the win and I expect them to have a strong showing in front of their home crowd.

Overall record: 7-2

Week 3 record: 2-1

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

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